keyser soze

using this thread to run a trading idea on the cup. based on teams with a chance of success, but who could easily fall at the first hurdle.

the perfect scenario is a draw in their game today/tomorrow.

never tried this before so putting up here to try and avoid errors, as i would look silly, and to hopefully obtain some thoughts on the idea, and any advice as to future bets and lays as the event unfolds.

in a perfect world, others (ilunga ) could do the same bet with different teams and we can see how we all do.

Outright Market

£40 Liverpool @ 8.4 (296)
£18 Spurs @ 17.5 (297)
£12.50 Bolton @ 25 (300)
£9 Everton @ 34 (297)
£9 Portsmouth @ 34 (297)
£6 Man City @ 50 (294)

total staked on outrights = £94.50

then the plan is to recoup the stakes as they progress, with hopefully each of the teams having some draws along the way.

Individual R3 Games

£70 Lay Liverpool @ 2.06
£35 Lay Spurs @ 1.89
£38 Lay Bolton @ 1.80
£25 Lay Everton @ 2.22
£40 Lay Portsmouth @ 1.75
£22 Lay Man City @ 2.32

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

ilunga

Sorry keyser. I didn't have time to get my head round the concept of this, let alone select some teams. I could give it a go next round though.

keyser soze

Current Scenario

Outrights Cost £166.00
Individual Round Bets +£33.51

Nett -£132.49

will work out commission costs at the end

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

thegreat

replays would be great for you then Keyser

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"Make poverty history, Cheaper drugs now"

keyser soze

yes thats the general gist of the idea. there seems two obvious options for teams who go thru first time.

back them again if value on the outrights, leaving a bigger pot to work from

or try to get back losses from the straight win they achieved in the individual game.

if every game was won first time, it could be pretty hard to make much anything out of this but if the fair share of 25% of games were draws then there is a potential for some profit

time will tell if it works,

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

gondorff

keyser, how do you choose the teams to back/lay at the start of the process?

keyser soze

basically i am looking at teams who arent without a chance of going far but who have a tough opener.

i would argue that even although they won 4-0 bolton could easily have put out a reserve team and lost/drew at donny.

in hindsight if i had known that sheff u would make 10 changes from their last league game then that could have been a possibility too, alhtough with the view a draw was the likelier finish.

also this isnt a case of trading just these 6 teams, the idea is to look at each round on its own merits.

as i type man u have just won but had it stayed 1-1 it would have been an ideal pick before the replay as they would still have been around 2.1 tops to win at villa park

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

keyser soze

have added Newcastle, with the view to laying them against Brum in the replay.

all bets and current situation in post #3 above.

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

Mister Logic

keyser, is there any pattern to the stakes for the individual lays?

keyser soze

in most cases i was trying to "risk" 10% of the potential return if the team won the cup. this leaves a bit of leeway for trading that team as the cup goes on.

the worst situation to get into is to overstake the lays of teams you have backed at the start who go on to have a good event and you end up wanting them out.

liverpool was a little different because it was a high profile game v arsenal and failure to win it would have eaten in to the original pot really well. i therefore risked about 25% on that.

the money maker in this type of bet is getting draws from short priced lays and spurs and citeh have obliged today to leave me only £4 shy of the initial stake before the Newcastle bet. so its worked out well so far.

i'm adding another 8 @ 38 on citeh and will lay them at low odds v Sheff w in the replay for 10% of the pot which is now nearly £600

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

Mister Logic

Ah, I see. I managed to work out the 10% of winnings for the others, but Liverpool stuck out like a sore thumb. Seems like a decent plan. Good luck with it.

keyser soze

after the R4 draw ive added west ham @ 32, Colchester @ 300 and Blackburn @ 21, with a view to laying all 3 in their matches.

R3 replays/re scheduled games

will be laying Citeh at home to Sheff Weds, Spurs at home to Cardiff, Newcastle at home to Brum and colchester away to Barnet. (Extra time and further progression is the hope in these matches)

Of those 2 teams already thru, they now have Arsenal and Man U away so will look at the prices on offer on the day in R4 although i wont want to risk too much of the pot as if they create an upset the potential future winnings would be shot to pieces.

Current nett position -48.40 with an interest on 8 teams.

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

Mister Logic

Keyser, Colchester are not at home. Their original tie was postponed on Saturday not drawn. It has been re-arranged for tomorrow night.

arnie

Keyser, in case you're not aware..........Colchester still have to visit Fortress Underhill.......the original match was postponed.

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I've got loads of willpower......but no won'tpower

arnie

D'oh

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I've got loads of willpower......but no won'tpower

keyser soze

cheers guy, i really should have noticed that.

Colchester matched at 300 for £2 so 598 pot and an offer of 1.94 for £63 offered on the rescheduled match.

a draw would be nice.

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

keyser soze

the way the draw has panned out has actually made it worthwhile trading Reading

£5 to win the cup @ 60

£40 Lay @ 1.74 tonight in a match where there will be 9 changes from the team that beat W Ham 6-0.

If they win at first time of asking they get Newcastle or Birmingham away which fits into the plan nicely.

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."