JohnnyK

OK I hate tennis, especially Wimbledon with all the hooray Henries and their desperate cries of "Come on Tim" as he loses to some unknown Lithuanian teenager.

However, it strikes me this Federer fellow is rather good. So good in fact that he's almost unbeatable on any surface other than clay.

I am thinking of unloading @ 1.57 to coast through the next fortnight - can anyone persuade me otherwise?

1qa2ws

Well there can be no doubt that Federer on grass is like Sampras in his heyday. Doesn't always have his way on hard courts with Nadal about and he could have had an easier draw. Likely to face Henman (Come on Tim ) in the second round and then Ancic at the QF stage. Couldn't put you off him at all though.

If you're looking for someone with a good draw Ljubicic could be your man, though whether he really likes the surface is open to debate.

__________________
Think differently.

Hacker

Federer has got an extremely tough draw, I wouldn't want to be backing him at 1.57 now. Gasquet has been playing solidly all week in Nottingham, and will be well tuned for their 1st round match.

Henman is one of very few players with a winning record against Federer, and has beaten him at Wimbledon, and has shown a marked improvement in his game at Queens - though he rarely maintains this for more than one set.

It would be a massive upset if he were to fall early, but he has complained about being fatigued recently, and dropped a lot of sets in Halle to players that he wouldn't expect to.

I wouldn't be lumping on him at those odds.

Stoichkov

Was going to post the same about Gasquet. Gasquet then Soderling / Henman is a v difficult start, then maybe Haas in the 4th. Not a good draw at all.

__________________
Mocked for buying multicorners

Hacker

Can't make Federer any shorter than 1.65 - looks like the bookies are queueing up to lay him at 4/7 now as well.

You can buy him with Sporting Index at 68 on their index. If he wins, you make 32 points, just over 47% profit on total amount risked. Surely a better way to get with the great one? I make him a shade over 69 with their scoring system, so a little bit of value at least.

JohnnyK

He looks an absolute stonking buy on that market to me, Hacker.

1qa2ws

I think sometimes you get such a strong overreaction that a player suddenly becomes incredible value. I think we see it this week at Wimbledon.

Federer has been such a dominant force at Wimbledon the last three years that while his price has contracted, his opponents' prices have lengthened. IMO that makes Andy Roddick at 20.0 on Betfair such great value.

In the last three years the guy has lost three times to Federer, once in the semi's and twice in the final. Grass form does not get any better than that.

Federer has a tougher draw then usual for a number one, while Roddick should breeze through the first three rounds. Things get a little tougher for him after that with Grosjean and Hewitt but the guy is mustard on grass and I don't think it will have done him any harm to have been just a shade off the top of his game at Queens.

You're not going to be able to lay Federer at his skinny odds during the tournament but Roddick's price will come a tumbling once he starts racing through against inferior oppenents. He'll be down to 14-1/12-1 before you know it.

Just my opinion anyway.

__________________
Think differently.

riccardo

I have laid Fed outright to back him in individual matches

1.07^7 = 1.60578

I've laid Gasquet at 14... surely his average match odds will start at least that long? (1.07 I mean)

__________________
"My ASS, No blame!"

JohnnyK

I'm doing the same, but without laying him Outright

1.07 hopefully suggests I'll get better than 1.57. Come on Roger, do the business.

JohnnyK

I have to confess, midway through his second match I got so bored of having to follow the tennis, I just unloaded @ 1.44 and laid back.

Saw a few glimpses of his game against Ancic, and let's be honest - no one can live with this guy.

4 days 'til collection

riccardo

Yup

4 days of struggling to break even if he wins, and realistically looking at an injury as my only hope of a profit

NB I only mean "hope" in terms of the bet... I'm not wishing it on him

__________________
"My ASS, No blame!"

Hacker

Bizarre as it may sound, I think Fed has actually played a bit above expectations this week. Made mincemeat of a supposedly tricky draw, which until now has panned out about as hard as it could have. Hasn't dropped a set, only been taken to a tie-break once.

The unbelievable stat for me is his breakpoints. In last three years here, his record from R1 to QF of breakpoints faced/lost:

2003 - 28/8
2004 - 17/1
2005 - 14/5

2006 - 9/2

Considering this draw, that is a gobsmackingly strong performance.

1qa2ws

Think there is tons of value to be had in today's semi-finals. Both outsiders have good records against the fav and don't think you can go wrong by backing the outsider and laying soon after.

__________________
Think differently.