Mr Intensity

Hi guys, thought I'd start putting some of my tennis stuff in here, looks a nice place

RADWANSKA @ 2.00 Centrebet. Tough match to call but I'm willing to take my chances at even money. Both these ladies were getting hammered in there last rounds, but both fought very well to come through in the end. I expect Radwanska to be the one to come through when it gets tight, her more solid style should get the job done. Daniela will rely on her serve in the big moments, but the quality of Radwanskas returning is excellent, especially her aggression on seconds serves (remember v Sharapova at the Open?). H2H is 1-0 to Radwanska, 6-3 6-3 in Zurich late last year, indoors which should have suited Hantuchova.

WILLIAMS @ 1.69 Pinnacle. This 1.69 looks pretty sweet to me. Venus has struggled a bit so far, but still managed to come through without dropping a set. This is the time in the tournament for her to step up, and I expect her to do so. There has been a lot of talk about Ivanovic, with regard to this match up but I don't see it happening. It was exactly the same last year at Wimbledon, but Venus came out and battered her 6-2 6-4. They met again at the US Open and Venus came through again, 6-4 6-2 making the H2H 4-0 without a set dropped. Ivanovic has looked the better player so far in the tournament, but this match will be won in the head, and the edge is definately to Venus.

FERRER +5.5 games @ 1.83 Skybet. +5.5 seems pretty reasonable for what I'd consider a very tight game. I'd also consider laying Djokovic before the start. Ferrer has been exceptional so far, beating up a few chumps then taking out Ferrero who was playing great. In that match, I was surprised with the quality of his serving - there were a couple of games he went down 0-40 but apart from that he was rock solid on the serve, Ferrero struggling to get anything going on Ferrers first serve. Everything in his game looked to be well honed, and this is going to be a real battle. Djokovic has also come through well, hasn't dropped a set yet but a bit lucky with Hewitts scheduling. H2H is 3-2 to Ferrer, with him getting the last win against Djokovic in the Masters Cup when Djokovic was out of sorts. Djokovic won 6-4 6-4 6-3 but that was on quicker courts, when Djokovic was on an awesome roll, and I expect this one to be tougher.

Stoichkov

Hi Mr Intensity, good to have some more tennis stuff on here. Bad luck with the bets though I guess. I find it gets even more difficult at these stages of grand slams because all the players will have found some kind of form, and you get more results like Tsonga yesterday. Mind you, the Ferrer bet looked very good on paper, just Djokovic must have started like a rocket.

Don't know if you've looked around bronze, but keep posting interesting stuff and you'll be propelled into gold where many more interesting discussions happen.

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Mr Intensity

Hey, thanks for the welcome! Yeah, that was a really tough night. Back for some more punishment.....

BONDARENKO/BONDARENKO @ 2.5 Pinnacle. Having a go on the sisters in the final, think this is a good price. They've had some great results so far beating the best team in the world Black/Huber, Garrigues/Pascual and Peng/Sun. It's strange that last year they played together and did pretty much nothing but something seems to have clicked. Azarenka/Peer have also had some good results this tournament beating a couple of higher seeded pairs including a big comeback against Yan/Zheng. They've just started playing together this year, with Azarenka in particular getting some good doubles results last year with various partners. I think they are the more accomplished pair, but I'm still rating this match pretty evenly given how the Bondarenkos have played thus far. Plus, I really like Alona.

DJOKOVIC @ 3.6 Betfair. I have really high hopes for Novak in this one, hope he doesn't disappoint. Fed's performances have been up-and-down in this tournament, he started looking magnificant but then had a monster match against Tipsarevic. Since then, he's come through OK but that was against guys - Berdych and Blake - who he owns mentally. I don't think he's played too well in those matches, and is vunerable tonight. Djokovic has come through without dropping a set, and looks to be coming bang into form considering his last match against Ferrer. He had a wobble at the end, which is a concern here, but not a massive one. H2H is 5-1 to Federer, but the last two matches are most important as Djokovic improved so much last year. Djokovic won a cracker in the final of Cincinatti on a final set tie break, which really established himself at the top of the game. Then they met in the US Open final, with Fed coming through in 3, but Djokovic had a load of chances and should have won the first two sets. He showed that day that he has the game to take on Fed in a slam, now he needs to show that he has the balls.


Good luck everyone!

Mr Intensity

Much better, both got the job done. How good was Djokovic?

Stoichkov

Played really well, Federer not himself at all, particularly in the 2nd set. Well played Djokovic, and it should be a fascinating final if Tsonga can play like he did yesterday.

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Mister Logic

Know nothing about Tennis, but can appreciate well reasoned arguments when I see 'em. And it helps when they're winning ones too

Good work Mr Intensity, and welcome aboard.

Troy McClure

Yep, good stuff

Personally, I couldn't see past Fed and Nadal in the tennis, and I've watched every minute of the last month of tennis

Mr Intensity

CLEMENT/LLODRA @ 1.66 William Hill. Both teams have performed very well so far, coming through without dropping a set. I think the French pair should be clear favourites. They are an excellent team and they have the form player in Llodra who has been excellent in both singles and doubles this year. I saw them quite a bit during Wimbledon (anyone remember that match against Mello/Sa?) and I was really impressed - they went on to win the final against the Bryans. Erlich and Ram are a good team, but I feel they will be outclassed in the final against a team with more big match experience.

Mr Intensity

IVANOVIC +5.5 games WillHill. Not sure what to say about this one, just think it will be close. Obivously Sharapova is playing extremely well and is a clear favourite, but this being a final, don't think it will be as straightforward as the odds suggest. Ivanovic too has been playing well, great win over Venus and a great comeback against Hantuchova who was playing really well. Ivanovic had a bad experience in the final of the French last year, and I expect her to be stronger in this one. H2H is 2-2 with the last two meeting being really one-sided which doesn't bode well, but I still say this one is close.


Billy is going to take a beating tonight

1qa2ws

A very welcome addition to the forum, Mr Intensity, hope your good form continues.

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Mr Intensity

1-1 last night with the French duo letting me down. Another French hope tonight....

TSONGA TO WIN 1ST SET @ 2.75 Ladbrokes. I don’t know what to say about Tsonga, I’ve opposed him in his last 3 matches and he’s just blown everyone away. I’m not sure he can do the same to Djokovic who was excellent against Federer, but I’m sure he’s going to come out firing. Slight concern is nerves, but I thought that would happen against Nadal in the semi and he started excellently. I think it will take Djokovic a while to figure out how to play against Tsonga, and that makes the first set a very interesting betting proposition. I’d make it 55/45 in Djokovics favour, so taking a shot at these odds. Expect Djokovic to come through eventually, but it won’t be straightforward.

Mr Intensity

Nice hit to end the tournament.

teamsports

Great call.

As a matter of interest, at the start of the game, Tsonga was 3.2 (in from about 3.5 6 hrs earlier), and, after he won the first set, was +/- 2.0.

I am crap at maths, what price, would u have got, if u had backed at 3.2, and laid at 2.0, after the first set ?

Is there a forumla for working this sort of this out ?

the_mgt

The moral of this thread for the benefit of Bronze Members is that if you post the good stuff here it will get picked up an d you will find yourself catapulted into Gold.
A warm welcome to Mr.Intensity.

teamsports.Have a word with Genius Kid or maybe patrickstar for a handy tool.The specific answer is 1.92 Tsongas at 1-0 if you start with 3.2 coming out.

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the_mgt

The whole thing is a vast expansion of Pascal's Triangle and works for any starting odds.
Let's start with two 'idiot' examples.
Womens' match EVENS each of two coming out.Player A wins first set and is now 3-1 on, from the line 1 2 1.
Mens' match 5 sets.EVENS each of two coming out and Player A wins first set.

You follow Pascal and go to the line 1 4 6 4 1 and from that you can deduce the odds for both players.
The problem with Pascal is that although a great maths wizard.....the Genius Kid of his day;as a tennis player he was a fish. In other words you have to modify his figures in other ways but they are as good a starting point as any.

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Mr Intensity

Thanks guys.

Nice application of Pascal there mgt

Hacker

if you are trying to replicate the bet "tsonga wins set 1" by backing tsonga before set 1 and laying him after, you need to know what price the market would have let you out at if tsonga had lost the set

the sp gives you a good idea of this exit price, but in practice the price you are allowed out at will depend on how the first set was won, not just who won/lost it.

djokovic might be showing signs of a niggly injury on his way to winning a tight first set, or he may have coasted it 6-0, each case gives a very different price on tsonga to win match from one set down.

the same applies for when tsonga has won the set, did he do so easily or not - if you let him win the 1st set 100 times he wouldn't be evens for the match after every outcome