patrickstar

often when in the pub to create a bit of interest on a dull football match (or other sport) on the tv my drinking buddies and I will strike some silly bets up..

seeing as we tend to arrive at odds based on alcohol-influenced instincts I've often wondered whether I've been giving away or getting some big value (the stakes never get very big, so it's all just for fun, but i'm interested never the less)

Often thought I'll come on here the next day and ask for opinions, but usually can't even remember what the bet was anyway by then.

Anyway, last night on the Bolton Chelsea game we were trying to come up with a bet to make it interesting and I came up with a first goal bet, whereby you have to name the scorer, what part of his body he scores with (ultimately decided as 3 options - right leg, left leg and head/the rest), and who provides the assist.

I decided I'd give 100/1 on any combination he fancied (then started to worry I'd made a bit of a rick)

my mate had 50p on Drogba/right leg/Lampard assist and Ballack/right leg/ Makalele assist

now I'm pretty sure in the latter of those two, the value was on my side, but what about the first?

My attempts to price it up would go along the lines of:

Drogba to score first goal - about 4/1 (complete guess)

so that's 20% chance,

then if he did score, probably 50% right foot, 25% left foot, 25% head/other

so Drogba + right foot = 10% chance

now the assist part is tricky - what if there isn't a clear assist? in the end i managed to argue that the bet should be a loser then, common sense to prevail and any disputes to be settled by referring to the bbc text commentary which usually credits assists.

at a complete guess maybe 70% of goals have an associated assist,

so down to 7% chance overall

for lampard to make that assist - maybe about a 20% chance?

so putting it all together I reckon Drogba/right leg/Lampard is 1.4%, i.e. about a 70/1 shot, so I probably was giving value away?

Anyone reckon they'd get a significantly different price, or see somewhere I've gone wrong?

Hacker

if i could have a punt on any separate part of that, i think lampard to make the assist (given drogba scores first with right foot) at 4/1 would be the most likely to entice me

given it can't be drogba providing the assist, the chances it is lampard are a bit higher than 20% in my (mug footie punter) view - my "pluck a number out of my arse" method has it closer to 26% maybe

thinking about it a little more, maybe you are right - quite a few of lampards assists are probably headed goals, due to the number of crosses he puts in. so once you've got down to it being drogba right foot this pushes "lampard assist" out again

skysports have current season opta stats by team if you're interested:

http://home.skysports.com/optastats....Chelsea&cpid=8

patrickstar

When I wrote that Lampard being 20%, I originally wrote 25%, then changed my mind - not entirely sure why I did though!

It is all quite complicated when you start looking at the related stuff on crossers/headed goals.

Basically, I was just wondering if could repeat this bet for any game offering a blanket 100/1 on a take your pick basis.

I guess I probably can't, without potentially giving value away anyway.. the main danger would be when there is a very short priced fav in the first goal market I guess.

Although if I'm going to be laying Ballack/Makelele type bets then mabe i can afford to be giving some value away on others

Hacker

the drogba/lampard combo must be one of the shortest cases in the premiership i would have thought. henry/fabregas could be quite short too

another thing to clear up is whether getting a penalty counts as an assist - i've got a feeling it does officially, but it seems like a grey area

maybe you could just offer your mate his next bet free instead when that happens. concessions make the world go round

even if you are giving value away to your mate, at best he is occasionally getting about 50p expected value - for a bit of a laugh down the pub it's probably worth it just for entertainment's sake. if he scatters his bets about, i think you're still on the right side of it

patrickstar

think we decided that whoever got fouled for the penalty gets the assist.. so actually that does open up the Drogba/Drogba type scenario

Yeah, thinking about it i'm not really bothered too much about giving away a bit of value - it is just for fun, and if anything I'd prefer if we could just strike all the bets at 'fair' prices so the money just circles around the group and it's all pretty much even in the long run.
That'd probably happen at 100/1 or so, as there will be combinations shorter than that, but there'll be plenty more longer and I don't imagine my mates will be too adept at always finding the shorter ones!