silverblaze

Looking for some serious discussion which sadly I cannot find on the Betfair Forum at the moment. Although on a daily basis my specialisms are Greyhounds, Horseracing, Football and Politics (not so daily) reality tv has been good to me and I have always enjoyed the banter and discussion - until the present series of BB that is. Now looking for a new home and hoping you will put me up.
As a betting prospect BB is looking a bit cut and dried at the moment. Top female still looks interesting. Although Nicki has got the momentum I do worry that,like other cult figures before her (Science and Victor for example) she could well have an explosive moment that will totally blow her chances. She also looks likely to be up for eviction on a fairly regular basis. Cannot have Lea or Susie as top female and who knows what the new female housemates be like or how many will enter the main house.
Imogen seems the value imo. No chance of winning the outright but could , if the circumstances are right, do better than currently expected. At the very least Nicki is more vulnerable in this market than Pete is in the outright although their prices are comparable.

Hacker

Welcome sbt, good to see you on here

I have almost lost interest in BB of late, but this is the one market that I still have a sizeable position in.

My feeling is that Nikki is rightfully small odds on now, though I still can't stand her. I backed her outright early on and gave it back at respectable levels having decided that she was a massive lay to actually carry off the final positive vote to win the show.

I'm now a lot more wary of her, and don't see the threat from Aisleyne as anything like so strong in this market - after a few days I had identified the ghetto-child as a very likeable sort long-term, but I can see her chances waning as she has become involved in the sniping.

Agree that Nikki may well self-combust at some point, but my instincts say that she has played her hand well (and knows it) and she can only fall if/when the general public see her for the shallow game playing princess that she is. I feel like I never fell for her charms, and I find it frustrating that the majority have not grown to dislike her for the same reasons yet.

I'm not holding out for the house to keep sticking her up for eviction, so her prospects of an exit before the final four are getting very slim these days. I will take a lot of satisfaction in seeing her not win though, I find her "can't believe it" antics exceedingly annoying.

silverblaze

Hello Hacker.I suppose its one of those posts that will either end up with me looking a total idiot or an instant star. But cannot have Lea or Susie, Aisleyne is becoming more disliked by the day, and I dont expect too much from fridays arivals. Leaves you with Nikki and Imogen.Given the prices and Nikkis potential to self destruct then Imogen has to be the value.

Hacker

You could always re-register under a different username and stick up a directly opposing view on this thread - you'll be a superstar either way then

Imogen might sleepwalk her way to the winning post here, but everything has it's price. I would still back Lea for top female at big enough odds, though I haven't been keeping a close enough eye to say what odds I would be happy with.

Hard to see Aisleyne picking up the ground from here, but there's still a lot of time left. I feel like Suzie has slipped from outsider (I priced her at 16/1 top female a couple of days after she entered) to no hoper (100/1)

Best price I can see about Imogen at the moment is 12/1 - not a bet for me, but I'd definitely be interested at 20/1

Maloolaboo

Top female is one of those bets that is a sweat all the way to the line and after Makosi's almost defeat by the terrible and impossible to imagine Kinga last year, I swore I wouldnt touch it this year. A year goes by and it turns out to be the very second bet I make (after Pete). This year I chose Imogen early and a few weeks back equalised on Nikki, so take the following comments with a biased book.

Susie and Lea have made themselves sufficiently unpopular both in the house and outside to warrant eviction and its just a matter of time. That leaves 3 possible bets Imogen, Nikki or Aisleyne + AO (possibly up to 2 more females).

Imogen is the obvious candidate to make a bid for top female but its a "take-a price-and-pray", eggs in the one basket, sort of bet, so not one that appeals.

I have no doubt that Nikki is far and away the most likely and deserves the odds on status. Her penchant for the dramatic does leave her vulnerable though and advantage may be had by simply trading her between 1.6 and evens after every threat (of which I am sure there will be many).

Aisleyne and the AO's combined at 2.78 would, at first glance seem generous but looking closer it is well odds against there being an odds on shot lurking in the new house. Aisleyne is losing support (after making a decent run at one stage) and her desire to follow Grace's path seems likely to be fulfilled. So, imo, the Imogen price is either far too big, or the AO is far too short given the relative chances of the two choices. My inclination is to lay AO before it is discovered that:

1.Only one other female will be entering the house
2.Aisleyne's poll results gets worse

Should the girl next door look like a threat to your lay, cover immediately.

the_mgt

Great thread and great start,silverblazetips.At this rate you could shortly become goldblazetips.
I have just begun a thread in Gold on Top4 and this is the only other side market in which I have a position.
Sad to say it is currently a losing position as I went with Aiseleyne and the AO's and with Lea and Imogen against Nikki.
I have a good win on Nikki for Top4 so no disasters.

Not for the first time I have a lot of sympathy with Hacker's views.Imogen is ideal for a stayers mkt. in my opinion.She simply cannot win but could hang around for a long time.Her strategy in the house has been to go for one on one conversations where she is the listener and she agrees totally with whatever she hears. She projects herself as 'no threat' and bigs up the status of her chosen companion of the hour.
The problem for Imogen is appearing two-faced and in particular with regard to Nikki.Richard doesn't like her which is no bad thing these days and could even help her chances.
Good point from Maloo about trading Nikki.There is lots of scope to trade these side mkts as they are not too active.

blink

Also a market that the bookies love, of course, as they cynically add new runners to already well-over 100% books - meaning those who place their bets early are betting into a market that may not even contain the winner.

Of course these days they cover their asses with a mealy-mouthed "Other runners may be added" rider. But in earlier years they didn't even bother with that - fully intending in pocketing the lot should a late-comer ever triumph. Thank God, as yet, it has never come off for them.

blink

And as for Paddy Power who actually had the audacity to make Sam early-doors favourite in the Top Female market rather than rank outsider in the Top Man category - well, don't get me started!!

the_mgt

Good point from Maloo regarding Makosi last year.In one sense she won it trap to line and in another she went to very backable prices and particularly in the late stages, first against Orlaith and then against Kinga.
One huge flashpoint came on the day of Vanetha's eviction.It was fairly obvious Makosi would poll most votes for eviction and her position looked very dodgy.

Nikki could never become as unpopular as Makosi became but there is still lots of scope for twists and turns.
By the same token,Imogen and Aiseleyne look far stronger opponents than Orlaith and Vanetha did at this time last year.All this ignores the combined chances of Suzie,Lea and any new entrant.
Well done, silverblaze, and hope to see you in Gold.

silverblaze

Thanks all for your quality replies. My strategy in these types of markets is to take a position on some of the runners - for example backing Pete and laying George.As events unfold I will either hold my ground , if its going my way , or trade. Other bets , like Nikki on the outright , im looking to trade .In this way im looking to build up a healthy and fairly risk free profit. But i also like to have a few speculative value , albeit with small stakes, bets along the way - some of which will come in others I will expect to make a loss on. Imogen as top female is one of these .IF Nikki does blow it or IF the new housemates dont mount to much then, at the very least Imogen offers a good trading price.

budgiebird

Welcome silverblaze, good to have you aboard!

With regard to Top Female, I would be opposing Nikki at odds of around 1/2. Her popularity is certainly on the increase and she also seems to be winning over those who had her as their least favourite H/Mate a few weeks ago. If she is still there for the final week, when the voting turns positive, she stands every chance of the Top Female spot, however I do have concerns about her not making it through to the final week.

I am sure Endemol will do all they can to protect her and she has survived her last two eviction contests very comfortably. However, against Sam, a swing of only just over 3% would have seen her leaving. Up against people like Lisa and Grace, who had high unpoularity ratings, she will never be in danger, but put her up against someone fairly bland with a low popularity, but also low unpopularity and she might well come unstuck.

For a precedent, as I have mentioned on a previous post on this forum, you only have to look as far back as Orlaith's survivals last year aginst both Science and Kemal. Orlaith's popularity and unpopularity were almost negligible, Science and Kemal had fairly high ratings in both positve and negative polls. The end result was that people's views on Orlaith never came into the equation. It was all about people either voting to save or evict her opponent and while they both Science and Kemal enjoyed fairly good positive support, it appears that voters are more ready to spend their cash voting some they dislike out than those who want to keep their favourite in.

Even though Nikki's unpopularity is decreasing, if she is up against someone bland such as Mikey or a new entrant who has not had time to build up any great unpopularity amongst the voters, Nikki could find herself in a similar situation as Orlaith's more colourful opponents last year.

Endemol will do all they can to protect her, but the bottom line is that they want to encourage votes in eviction contests. If Nikki is up against someone who does not provide them with material to edit them negatively, they may decide to cut Nikki loose in their greed for eviction phone votes.

Even if she is not evicted before the final week, there is every chance that at least two of the new entrants will be female and at least a possibility that one of those will have enough spark about her to challenge for the Top Female spot.

feedingthe-ego

welcome sb

some interesting points made in this thread

I personally wouldnt have much faith in a/o - agreeing that the main house needs more males - or Aisleyne, nor Suzie and Leah. Boringly agree that Nikki represents trading opportunity as maloo describes and Imogen has some potential.

Hopefully see you in Gold soon.

Ft-e

silverblaze

Early days but cant say im very impressed by the two new female housemates.Aisleyne has had a bad week and has done nothing but bitch since going into the new house.Looks more a more a battle between Nikki and imogen.

the_mgt

On the face of it it looks as though AO could constitute four runners,as Aiseleyne should try to preserve one of the guys.
I still go back to the situation last year when it looked for all the world to be a 3way between Makosi,Vanessa and Orlaith.
In this mkt. Makosi was a hot fav. at around 1.2 large. The opposition at the time looked pathetic and who knew about Kinga ?
Even before Kinga's late entry,Makosi had many sticky moments and not all of them in the pool !
Fast forward to BB7.Nikki is probably as outstanding as Makosi was and could never become as unpopular.The opposition looks far more formidable than last year and the newbies could be anything.
The chief factor against Nikki is that she could figure in maybe two more eviction contests.The nightmare for Nikki is being up against a newbie.The GBP have shown a marked tendency since BB6 to massively favour newbies against oldies and weak characters over strong ones.
Nikki barely scraped through against Sam and whilst her popularity has grown since then, her unpopularity has shown no sharp decline.
Imogen fully represents her last traded price (11.0) and AO has to be value at bigger than 3.0(last traded 3.2).All in all,Nikki looks a lay to me at odds on.

the_mgt

It really saddens me to see no comment on this forum.I have many comments to make but will confine them to Gold, pending a perceptive post from a Bronze member.

silverblaze

With Nikki gone Imogen is now the only original female left. Has become a profitable trade for me and am happy with the market. As for the others Suzie and Aisleyne still look vulnerable if up for eviction. Jury still out as far as Jennie is concerned. For a girl of her age does seem to smoke rather too heavily. Will she turn into a raving luny without them for a bit. Hasnot got the personality to challenge Pete but could go far if she stays level headed. At the moment think this market is between her and Imogen but far from clear cut hence the trade.

__________________
When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

thegreat

boss you promoted everyone to Gold

__________________
___________


I'm a working man from Lancashire

And I want a Chippy Tea !!!!