Quote:
Originally Posted by patrickstar  Why?
What do you do if you find what looks like a great value lay below 3.0 or above 10.0? Just ignore it?
Why?
What if you make him a 20/1 shot?
Why?
Why not lay both?
Good thinking. Just off to Rymans to get myself an A4 pad. Back in about half an hour. |
Questions, Questions, Questions.
OK, here we go.
1) Min Price 3.0- Max Price 10.0
This is not a lay a fav system. If a horse is under 2/1 then it has the market backing and obviously has a strong chance of winning (excluding maidens where I always lay the favourite
) . I've noticed some of the selections that I pick are forecasted around 6 to 7/1 but near the off they seem to drift to 13's and 14's. If one of them won (with a forecasted chance of 6/1) then -13 level points is a big hit on the P&L. Having a max price of 10.0 limits these chances.
I am not looking for a weak favourites nor outsiders but horses that are reasonably priced with only a small/little chance of winning (on paper).
2) No Bet if Selected horse is Favourite and OVER 5.0 at the off
You will be suprised to see how many clear favourites win that are over 4/1, especially in quality grade 1/2 races. If he was a 20/1 shot if wouldn't be favourite and would also not qualify in the 3.0-10.0 price ruling.
3) Min 6 RUNNERS.
This is mainly for the winter season/bad weather days when horses pull out. If I issued tips to you guys and went out for the day and in the meantime 2-3 horses pulled out which changes the dynamics of a race then the initial lay selction is in question.
4) LAY THE OUTSIDER IF MORE THAN ONE QUALIFIES (Like in the 4:20).
I dont suggest to lay both because I've selected two horse in a race which i feel have an equal chance of winning. Having this rule lets the market decide which horse has a better chance to win and quite often the market gets it right, believe me.
I hope this answers your query, its not been the best start but investing in horses is not an overnight thing.
Cheers
Fordy