The Ultimate Betting Forum - View Single Post - Operating on Betfair Markets w/o Delays/Suspensions

HARIBO · 25th June 2008, 01:34

Thank you for your reply. I agree, this is a reason for offering prices below the current value, particularly before kick-off or while no team has taken the lead.

However, the Euro 2008 market stays really tight even during the matches. The lowest price to lay a team is usually only two or three increments bigger than the highest price to back it, at least as long as the prices stay below 20. There never seems to be a broader gap even after considerable market movements. For example, when Russia were 1-0 up against the Netherlands with ~5 minutes to go, Netherland's price went to 15. At that point, as far as I can see, only two things could have happened: Russia could have managed to defend their lead, which would have resulted in NED's price rising minute-by-minute (if not faster). Or NED could have scored the equaliser (as they did, which sent their price down to 5 for a short time). Either way -- who in their right mind would lay NED at, say, 10 or 12? When NED's price was 15, there was no way this bet would have been matched without them equalising, in which case laying NED @ 12 would be like burning money with petrol.

To me, it looks like a lose-lose situation. That people would expose themselves to such a situation at a two-digit price level just adds to my confusion. But maybe I'm missing something, and that's why I asked here.

25th June 2008, 01:34	#3 (permalink)
HARIBO Silver Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10	Re: Operating on Betfair Markets w/o Delays/Suspensions Thank you for your reply. I agree, this is a reason for offering prices below the current value, particularly before kick-off or while no team has taken the lead. However, the Euro 2008 market stays really tight even during the matches. The lowest price to lay a team is usually only two or three increments bigger than the highest price to back it, at least as long as the prices stay below 20. There never seems to be a broader gap even after considerable market movements. For example, when Russia were 1-0 up against the Netherlands with ~5 minutes to go, Netherland's price went to 15. At that point, as far as I can see, only two things could have happened: Russia could have managed to defend their lead, which would have resulted in NED's price rising minute-by-minute (if not faster). Or NED could have scored the equaliser (as they did, which sent their price down to 5 for a short time). Either way -- who in their right mind would lay NED at, say, 10 or 12? When NED's price was 15, there was no way this bet would have been matched without them equalising, in which case laying NED @ 12 would be like burning money with petrol. To me, it looks like a lose-lose situation. That people would expose themselves to such a situation at a two-digit price level just adds to my confusion. But maybe I'm missing something, and that's why I asked here.