often when in the pub to create a bit of interest on a dull football match (or other sport) on the tv my drinking buddies and I will strike some silly bets up..
seeing as we tend to arrive at odds based on alcohol-influenced instincts I've often wondered whether I've been giving away or getting some big value (the stakes never get very big, so it's all just for fun, but i'm interested never the less)
Often thought I'll come on here the next day and ask for opinions, but usually can't even remember what the bet was anyway by then.
Anyway, last night on the Bolton Chelsea game we were trying to come up with a bet to make it interesting and I came up with a first goal bet, whereby you have to name the scorer, what part of his body he scores with (ultimately decided as 3 options - right leg, left leg and head/the rest), and who provides the assist.
I decided I'd give 100/1 on any combination he fancied (then started to worry I'd made a bit of a rick)
my mate had 50p on Drogba/right leg/Lampard assist and Ballack/right leg/ Makalele assist
now I'm pretty sure in the latter of those two, the value was on my side, but what about the first?
My attempts to price it up would go along the lines of:
Drogba to score first goal - about 4/1 (complete guess)
so that's 20% chance,
then if he did score, probably 50% right foot, 25% left foot, 25% head/other
so Drogba + right foot = 10% chance
now the assist part is tricky - what if there isn't a clear assist? in the end i managed to argue that the bet should be a loser then, common sense to prevail and any disputes to be settled by referring to the bbc text commentary which usually credits assists.
at a complete guess maybe 70% of goals have an associated assist,
so down to 7% chance overall
for lampard to make that assist - maybe about a 20% chance?
so putting it all together I reckon Drogba/right leg/Lampard is 1.4%, i.e. about a 70/1 shot, so I probably was giving value away?
Anyone reckon they'd get a significantly different price, or see somewhere I've gone wrong?