It's painful to read the crap posted on the BF forum about this match and even more pointless to post anything to the contrary over there so you'll have to tolerate my ramblings.
I countered some of the cliches and misconceptions about the German team on a pre World Cup thread (the Brig's "Now is the time....") but a few more have surfaced prior to today's game.
Germany have played and beaten the four worst sides in the World Cup. Argentina, on the other hand, have beaten superior teams. Therefore Germany have no chance
The reasoning is pure comedy. By that token England has got fuck all chance against Portugal and that price is even tastier but I doubt that would be a reason for the poster to oppose England. It's cherry picking. The match deserves to be analyzed on its own merits.
Germany has no upside. They can't play any better than what they have shown
Disagree. Whilst Klose, Lahm and Frings have played to their max there are several players who, imo, have underperformed and have plenty of upside left. I am thinking about the likes of Schweinsteiger, Ballack, Metzelder, Schneider and even Podolski who has only had one good game in four.
Argentina are the more experienced team and when going behind for the first time the young German team will crumble.
Do people really bet their hard earned without doing research? 10 of the German squad were in the '02 World Cup squad. 5 of today's starters will have been on the pitch in the final. Only 4 of the Argentinians were even in the '02 squad. And none of them really gained any experience or did they?
Argentina matches up well with Germany and man for man all eleven are better
This "how many of your team would get a game in my team?" has always been a pet hate of mine. It's just not relevant (btw, imo, 6 of the German starters would make it
). As for the matchup I think it's the reverse. An Argentinian journalist noted in yesterday's press conference that, under Klinsmann, German teams have a decent record against South American teams and looked the better side in both encounters against Argentina over the past 2 years (both 2-2 draws). I also think it's worth mentioning that in both games Germany played without Ballack, Lahm, Klose and Podolski whereas Argentina played with 8 or 9 of today's starters depending on who lines up today.
The back four will be tormented by Crespo/Saviola/Messi/Tevez
Not through the aerial route, that's for sure. Again, it's about the system not the players. The 2 goals they conceded against Costa Rica were failed offside traps. Nobody can deny it has worked better in the last 3 games. Lehmann has had the fewest saves of all keepers left. A favourite statistic of mine is "scoring chances made vs scoring chances allowed", admittedly a more subjective stat than shots on goal but much more telling. Germany comes away with 43-12 and Argentina with 25-17. Of course, different calibre of opposition, etc, etc but compare them to the teams that they have had 2 common opponents with (England for Germany and Portugal for Argentina). England's stat shows 23-11 and Portugal 28-21. I don't think it's delusional to compare Germany's back line with what England has achieved so far and Argentina's front line with Portugal's. Puts things in a different perspective.
I'm not saying Germany is a cert. Far from it. All of the above is a biased view but I hope that those who are thinking of "putting the bank on Argentina" take it on board and maybe reduce their stakes.