 Re: Thoughts on top female.
Top female is one of those bets that is a sweat all the way to the line and after Makosi's almost defeat by the terrible and impossible to imagine Kinga last year, I swore I wouldnt touch it this year. A year goes by and it turns out to be the very second bet I make (after Pete). This year I chose Imogen early and a few weeks back equalised on Nikki, so take the following comments with a biased book.
Susie and Lea have made themselves sufficiently unpopular both in the house and outside to warrant eviction and its just a matter of time. That leaves 3 possible bets Imogen, Nikki or Aisleyne + AO (possibly up to 2 more females).
Imogen is the obvious candidate to make a bid for top female but its a "take-a price-and-pray", eggs in the one basket, sort of bet, so not one that appeals.
I have no doubt that Nikki is far and away the most likely and deserves the odds on status. Her penchant for the dramatic does leave her vulnerable though and advantage may be had by simply trading her between 1.6 and evens after every threat (of which I am sure there will be many).
Aisleyne and the AO's combined at 2.78 would, at first glance seem generous but looking closer it is well odds against there being an odds on shot lurking in the new house. Aisleyne is losing support (after making a decent run at one stage) and her desire to follow Grace's path seems likely to be fulfilled. So, imo, the Imogen price is either far too big, or the AO is far too short given the relative chances of the two choices. My inclination is to lay AO before it is discovered that:
1.Only one other female will be entering the house
2.Aisleyne's poll results gets worse
Should the girl next door look like a threat to your lay, cover immediately. |