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ilunga · 16th June 2006, 09:36

There have been a few movers and shakers after the first round of games.

My thoughts.

Brazil out to 4.3. Justified as they were too short in the first place. Far from impressive against Croatia. Is there squad really any good? Ronaldo strolling around but who can take his place? Not Robinho surely. Do they actually have any feasible alternatives for the 'big four'?

Argentina in to 8.4. Rightly so. They looked good. Unlike Brazil they have good options on the bench - Tevez, Messi (if fit), Gonzalez, Aimar. Fair price.

England at 8.6. It's been said already. No value at all unless Sven sorts out the midfield. Too many long balls from Beckham and Rio. Gerrard looks lost. Owen is also a worry.

Germany at 9.6. Thought they might have come in a bit. They're looking alright. Defensively a lot more solid against Poland. Decent value.

Spain into 11. Big move and rightly so. They were too long to begin with. Couldn't say they are too short as they were mightily impressive against a useful Ukraine side.

Netherlands at 18. Not much change. Did all that could be expected of them against Serbia. Need more from certain players though as Robben won't be able to carry them on his own.

France out to 19.5. Not impressive but perhaps a slight overreaction. They have two soft games to get things right.

Italy into 11.5. Everything fell into place against Ghana. Tougher tests await. No value imho.

Portugal at 27. They did ok against Angola. Will be a threat but need to be a bit more incisive in and around the box. Fair price.

Czech Rep. into 26. They looked pretty damn good against the septics. Never really tested though. Will be interesting to see how they cope without Koller (and Baros) against better opposition. Can Rosicky re-produce that form consistently? Still some question marks.

The rest.

There could still be some value knocking around with the likes of Mexico, Croatia, Switzerland and Ivory Coast. The team I like best though is UKRAINE.

Ok they got humped 4-0 but I like to look at the positives:

Spain were outstanding.
They were shafted by an awful refereeing decision.
They got nothing from the linesmen. On another day Sheva would have been in at least a couple of times.
They actually played ok and continued to threaten even though a man light and the game was dead.
Time is on their side. Getting humped first up by a class side is not necessarily a bad thing. Weaknesses can be worked on.
Their main rivals for second spot were outplayed by the saudis.
A win and a draw should be enough to progress.
A potential last 16 match with France/Switzerland is not a daunting task.
Finishing second would enable them to avoid Brazil in the quarters should they make it.

Through my rose-tinted spectacles I make them a very good bet at 150.

Anyone care to dissuade me from adding to my already healthy green?

16th June 2006, 09:36	#1 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,791	Outright value There have been a few movers and shakers after the first round of games. My thoughts. Brazil out to 4.3. Justified as they were too short in the first place. Far from impressive against Croatia. Is there squad really any good? Ronaldo strolling around but who can take his place? Not Robinho surely. Do they actually have any feasible alternatives for the 'big four'? Argentina in to 8.4. Rightly so. They looked good. Unlike Brazil they have good options on the bench - Tevez, Messi (if fit), Gonzalez, Aimar. Fair price. England at 8.6. It's been said already. No value at all unless Sven sorts out the midfield. Too many long balls from Beckham and Rio. Gerrard looks lost. Owen is also a worry. Germany at 9.6. Thought they might have come in a bit. They're looking alright. Defensively a lot more solid against Poland. Decent value. Spain into 11. Big move and rightly so. They were too long to begin with. Couldn't say they are too short as they were mightily impressive against a useful Ukraine side. Netherlands at 18. Not much change. Did all that could be expected of them against Serbia. Need more from certain players though as Robben won't be able to carry them on his own. France out to 19.5. Not impressive but perhaps a slight overreaction. They have two soft games to get things right. Italy into 11.5. Everything fell into place against Ghana. Tougher tests await. No value imho. Portugal at 27. They did ok against Angola. Will be a threat but need to be a bit more incisive in and around the box. Fair price. Czech Rep. into 26. They looked pretty damn good against the septics. Never really tested though. Will be interesting to see how they cope without Koller (and Baros) against better opposition. Can Rosicky re-produce that form consistently? Still some question marks. The rest. There could still be some value knocking around with the likes of Mexico, Croatia, Switzerland and Ivory Coast. The team I like best though is UKRAINE. Ok they got humped 4-0 but I like to look at the positives: Spain were outstanding. They were shafted by an awful refereeing decision. They got nothing from the linesmen. On another day Sheva would have been in at least a couple of times. They actually played ok and continued to threaten even though a man light and the game was dead. Time is on their side. Getting humped first up by a class side is not necessarily a bad thing. Weaknesses can be worked on. Their main rivals for second spot were outplayed by the saudis. A win and a draw should be enough to progress. A potential last 16 match with France/Switzerland is not a daunting task. Finishing second would enable them to avoid Brazil in the quarters should they make it. Through my rose-tinted spectacles I make them a very good bet at 150. Anyone care to dissuade me from adding to my already healthy green?