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Smokin Joe · 2nd June 2006, 16:39

The breakeven point for that bet is 11/2. If you think the chances of going to pens is more likely for each particular game then you bet the 5/4, otherwise don't.

I pondered long and hard about it. The last 4 world cups have had 12 games go to pens, that leaves each game with a probability of 0.1875 of going to pens - in which case the fair odds of more than 2 is 4/6.

However, the numbers have been decreasing with each tournie. (For what it's worth) here are the number of games that went to penalties:

2002 - 2
1998 - 3
1994 - 3
1990 - 4

Personally, I think there might be a smidgen of value in it, but I'd say it's fairly marginal.

2nd June 2006, 16:39	#55 (permalink)
Smokin Joe Gold Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 2,405	Re: "Bets placed" Thread The breakeven point for that bet is 11/2. If you think the chances of going to pens is more likely for each particular game then you bet the 5/4, otherwise don't. I pondered long and hard about it. The last 4 world cups have had 12 games go to pens, that leaves each game with a probability of 0.1875 of going to pens - in which case the fair odds of more than 2 is 4/6. However, the numbers have been decreasing with each tournie. (For what it's worth) here are the number of games that went to penalties: 2002 - 2 1998 - 3 1994 - 3 1990 - 4 Personally, I think there might be a smidgen of value in it, but I'd say it's fairly marginal.