ilunga

Anyone joining me with a specualtive lay of England? 1/10 is a joke imho, and just too short to resist.

Reasons why I think we will struggle today.

The crap performance in Skopje. England in no way deserved to win that game.
The 2-2 draw in the last euro qualifiers. We're no better than now, and they are no worse.
Looking at McLaren's likely line-up we have an out-of-form Rooney being asked to link-up with Crouch. A partnership that is untested. The likelihood of Gerrard being moved back to the centre to link-up again with Lampard. Worked like a dream under Sven The non-holding midfielder Carrick sitting behind them, with a rusty SWP on the wing/wing-back. A potential experiment with a 3-5-2 formation. It all adds up to a crap performance imho. We will probably win but 1/10 just doesn't make any sense.

The asian handicap line is funny as well. -2.5?!?! Is there really a 50% chance England will win this by three? Am I missing something? Defenders like Mitreski, Novevski and Vasoski are Bundesliga regulars. Are they just expected to quaking in their boots at the prospect of facing Crouchinho and an out-of-sorts Wayne Rooney!?
Even if Macedonia are as crap as the layers are trying to suggest, are England really going to be pushing for more goals at 2-0 when they have a massive game against Croatia midweek?! I'm sure McLaren would be more than happy with a one goal win.

One more bet worth taking is Stevica Ristic to score first (66/1) and anytime (16/1). He's as short as 9/2 elsewhere but Bluesq haven't cottoned on. He's not guaranteed to start but is the best striker in the Macedonian league. He hasn't yet played for the national team as he's actually Serbian, and has just received clearance to play for Macedonia. I hope some others can get a few quid on, as the useless shysters won't lay me more than a fiver.

The Big Man

Gotta agree with most of that.

There are far too many unknown factors in the England line-up for this to be anything other than a bet on Macedonia +2.5.

In recent qualifiers at home England have only twice managed a 3 goal victory, against Andorra and N Ireland.

In England's last ten qualifiers at home they have scored two goals on seven occasions, and that increases when you start looking at opponents of the same quality as Macedonia.

It's surprising however that in 50% of Englands recent qualifiers at home that they have been goalless at the break.

In Macedonia's recent qualifiers away from home they have scored a surprising amount of goals. The only teams to have kept them at bay were the Dutch and Andorra (!!!!).

With an unknown formation there is every likelihood that England will start slowly again and could easily be opened up at the back.

But I like the look of 2-1 to England, maybe 3-1, and 0-0 at half-time.

A bet on Macedonia on the asians is a bit of a no-brainer and have bought the time of the first goal. If things are goalless at half time then a little buy of the total goal minutes might be in order.

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Hacker

In running match price on bf has been unbelievably short for England for all of the second half. Good call on the lay at 1.10 ilunga, hope they hold on for you if you are still involved.

Rosebud

Alas, I found myself distracted [again!] by your avatar ilunga and did not follow you in.

1qa2ws

Great call! I didn't watch the game as I don't watch qualifers but wondered why Carrick played instead of someone deserving.

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feedingthe-ego

Great call Ilunga

ilunga

Cheers guys. Nice to have a win like that having only risked a pony. The a/h was never in doubt. Everything I touch on my mansion account seems to turn to gold at the moment England really aren't very good are they? No flair, no spark, nothing. Euro 2008 favourites?!? Yer 'avin a laugh!