colo colo

It's painful to read the crap posted on the BF forum about this match and even more pointless to post anything to the contrary over there so you'll have to tolerate my ramblings.

I countered some of the cliches and misconceptions about the German team on a pre World Cup thread (the Brig's "Now is the time....") but a few more have surfaced prior to today's game.

Germany have played and beaten the four worst sides in the World Cup. Argentina, on the other hand, have beaten superior teams. Therefore Germany have no chance
The reasoning is pure comedy. By that token England has got fuck all chance against Portugal and that price is even tastier but I doubt that would be a reason for the poster to oppose England. It's cherry picking. The match deserves to be analyzed on its own merits.

Germany has no upside. They can't play any better than what they have shown
Disagree. Whilst Klose, Lahm and Frings have played to their max there are several players who, imo, have underperformed and have plenty of upside left. I am thinking about the likes of Schweinsteiger, Ballack, Metzelder, Schneider and even Podolski who has only had one good game in four.

Argentina are the more experienced team and when going behind for the first time the young German team will crumble.
Do people really bet their hard earned without doing research? 10 of the German squad were in the '02 World Cup squad. 5 of today's starters will have been on the pitch in the final. Only 4 of the Argentinians were even in the '02 squad. And none of them really gained any experience or did they?

Argentina matches up well with Germany and man for man all eleven are better
This "how many of your team would get a game in my team?" has always been a pet hate of mine. It's just not relevant (btw, imo, 6 of the German starters would make it). As for the matchup I think it's the reverse. An Argentinian journalist noted in yesterday's press conference that, under Klinsmann, German teams have a decent record against South American teams and looked the better side in both encounters against Argentina over the past 2 years (both 2-2 draws). I also think it's worth mentioning that in both games Germany played without Ballack, Lahm, Klose and Podolski whereas Argentina played with 8 or 9 of today's starters depending on who lines up today.

The back four will be tormented by Crespo/Saviola/Messi/Tevez
Not through the aerial route, that's for sure. Again, it's about the system not the players. The 2 goals they conceded against Costa Rica were failed offside traps. Nobody can deny it has worked better in the last 3 games. Lehmann has had the fewest saves of all keepers left. A favourite statistic of mine is "scoring chances made vs scoring chances allowed", admittedly a more subjective stat than shots on goal but much more telling. Germany comes away with 43-12 and Argentina with 25-17. Of course, different calibre of opposition, etc, etc but compare them to the teams that they have had 2 common opponents with (England for Germany and Portugal for Argentina). England's stat shows 23-11 and Portugal 28-21. I don't think it's delusional to compare Germany's back line with what England has achieved so far and Argentina's front line with Portugal's. Puts things in a different perspective.


I'm not saying Germany is a cert. Far from it. All of the above is a biased view but I hope that those who are thinking of "putting the bank on Argentina" take it on board and maybe reduce their stakes.

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ilunga

Good stuff colo. Your pre-world cup views on Germany are looking very accurate.

I agree, all those bold points are a load of bollocks. Well, four of them are. To a certain extent, I do buy into the 'Germany have beaten poor sides' argument.

The reason I'm opposing Germany today is purely on price. I think it should be each of two in the match odds market.

teamsports

There has been a monster arb all week .. Hills went 22/10 Germany, and laid
it to some associates .. for about 35k, in various shops, up and down the
country.

Despite this money being washed in Betfair, the price on Bf has come down from 2.82, to about 2.64 .. which, is interesting on quite a few counts, not
least, how Hills WILL NOT use Betfair directly. I think Germany will go shorter.

jonnygold

I think Argentina will prove very hard to beat.

Attached Images

Arg.JPG (125.1 KB, 57 views)

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Dave P Fanclub

Good points, as always, colo. I'm disappointed to see Germany trading so short because I rather hope the market would continue to overrate Argentina. I think the odds pre-kick-off were broadly correct and it's no surprise to see most of the goons on Betfair totally flummoxed by them. Given the market movements in this tournament so far, I had hoped to lay Argentina at around 2.7 but I've left this game alone as I have a very strong bet on Germany at ante-post prices.

I'll be delighted if they make it through, partly because I'll be over in Dortmund on Tuesday and don't want to miss out on what has by all accounts been an awesome atmosphere so far. I only hope England can beat the Portuguese so we can continue the theme in Munich the following day, but I fear our chances are being overstated by the market.

pokernovice

Firstly, great call.

However just thought it was a little ironic that the match should be settled on a cliche.

The Germans NEVER lose on penalties.

drayton

its true though, they dont ever lose on penalties!
interesting to note the betting before yesterdays penalty shoot out, 8/11 the germans in what is supposedly a coin flip.
its all about preparation.

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keyser soze

if you beleive mr Pullein drayton, the penalty shootout should be priced as a direct relation of match odds.

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drayton

that would make england 4/7 in a shootout today then.

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keyser soze

i have noticed over the years that if you look into the eyes of the player before he steps up you can hazard a fair guess at his chances of success. some players are resigned to missing before they run up.

i dont think you can properly price up a pen shootout

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

ilunga

The goalkeepers are obviously a big factor. I had a little on Germany yesterday at 1.82 and felt it was pretty good value. Sometimes you just know, and it's daft to say it should always be each of two, or the match favourite should be the jollies.

pokernovice

Anyone have stats on who wins more often, the team going first or second? A pure guess, I would say first and if I was handed a free bet on any outcome, provided there was no glaring factors, I would always take the team going first.

ozz

Apparently it's a 57% success rate for the team going second. (In World Cups only)