ilunga

There have been a few movers and shakers after the first round of games.

My thoughts.

Brazil out to 4.3. Justified as they were too short in the first place. Far from impressive against Croatia. Is there squad really any good? Ronaldo strolling around but who can take his place? Not Robinho surely. Do they actually have any feasible alternatives for the 'big four'?

Argentina in to 8.4. Rightly so. They looked good. Unlike Brazil they have good options on the bench - Tevez, Messi (if fit), Gonzalez, Aimar. Fair price.

England at 8.6. It's been said already. No value at all unless Sven sorts out the midfield. Too many long balls from Beckham and Rio. Gerrard looks lost. Owen is also a worry.

Germany at 9.6. Thought they might have come in a bit. They're looking alright. Defensively a lot more solid against Poland. Decent value.

Spain into 11. Big move and rightly so. They were too long to begin with. Couldn't say they are too short as they were mightily impressive against a useful Ukraine side.

Netherlands at 18. Not much change. Did all that could be expected of them against Serbia. Need more from certain players though as Robben won't be able to carry them on his own.

France out to 19.5. Not impressive but perhaps a slight overreaction. They have two soft games to get things right.

Italy into 11.5. Everything fell into place against Ghana. Tougher tests await. No value imho.

Portugal at 27. They did ok against Angola. Will be a threat but need to be a bit more incisive in and around the box. Fair price.

Czech Rep. into 26. They looked pretty damn good against the septics. Never really tested though. Will be interesting to see how they cope without Koller (and Baros) against better opposition. Can Rosicky re-produce that form consistently? Still some question marks.

The rest.

There could still be some value knocking around with the likes of Mexico, Croatia, Switzerland and Ivory Coast. The team I like best though is UKRAINE.

Ok they got humped 4-0 but I like to look at the positives:

Spain were outstanding.
They were shafted by an awful refereeing decision.
They got nothing from the linesmen. On another day Sheva would have been in at least a couple of times.
They actually played ok and continued to threaten even though a man light and the game was dead.
Time is on their side. Getting humped first up by a class side is not necessarily a bad thing. Weaknesses can be worked on.
Their main rivals for second spot were outplayed by the saudis.
A win and a draw should be enough to progress.
A potential last 16 match with France/Switzerland is not a daunting task.
Finishing second would enable them to avoid Brazil in the quarters should they make it.

Through my rose-tinted spectacles I make them a very good bet at 150.

Anyone care to dissuade me from adding to my already healthy green?

davidti

I think your reasoning on Ukraine is spot on ilunga. Like you say, nothing at all went for them against Spain although one concern is the heat. They clearly looked a bit shafted in the hot weather against Spain and their final game against Tunisia is also a 3pm start.

DarkStar

OK I am on at 700s, but Ecuador still look a nice bet at 130ish. A tidy, no nonsense side that play for each other. And they only have to play either Sweden or England, neither of whom have done anything spectacular to suggest they can get past Ecuador's coherent defensive unit yet.

Walter

Ilunga, I've done a similar exercise and arrived at the same conclusion. I see no reason why the Ukraine would fear anyone from France's group either.

(Sorry just re-read your bit and you did mention the above. )

colo colo

Agree on the Ukraine analysis. Similar views about the opposition (or lack thereof) and prospects in round of 16. Tunisia vs Saudi had some entertainment value but quality wise it was a shocking game. I was equally dissappointed in the quality of both group G games. Could be any of 3 teams topping that one (I'm including SK!).

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"He's on his final hole. He's about 455 yards away, he's gonna hit about a 2 iron I think."

ilunga

Nice to know you're all with me

Losing to Russia in the group stage two years ago didn't do Greece any harm, and didn't Germany get all the way to the final in '86 having lost 2-0 to Denmark?!

It's very early days. I'm confident Shevchenko will make his mark soon and we'll see good things from Rotan. Voronin looked lively as well.

the_mgt

Here is an idea,it helps if you can trade at the best prices......as always.

Why not lay England and Germany to make the Final 8 ? Current prices 1.47-1.49 ENG and 1.57-1.58 GER.
The beauty of this is that there must be a 40%+ chance of them meeting each other in the Round of 16.Many have said that Ecuador don't have to fear England and who knows Sweden would have a similar or better chance against Germany.
Using idiot figures,you lay out 2units on each at an average of 1.5. When Eng and Ger meet you immediately win a unit and when they don't,you have two poorish(but not that poor) bets at 2-1, on Sweden and Ecuador to go through.

riccardo

Thankyou Ilunga for sorting my head out on that one... I am on Ukraine at 85 and had got no further than idly wondering why they hadn't drifted very far

I'm going in again, cheers

__________________
"And for my dessert, I will have another bottle of Barolo"

colo colo

At least reality has now set in regarding the top of market. Argentina deserved second favs.

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"He's on his final hole. He's about 455 yards away, he's gonna hit about a 2 iron I think."

riccardo

I think so too but surely 5.6 is OTT

I've laid some there... I do realise they weren't there when you posted colo colo

__________________
"And for my dessert, I will have another bottle of Barolo"

ilunga

Bit of change since last week.

Brazil from 4.3 out to 4.8

Mainly because of Argentina's steep drop but they were far from convincing against the Aussies.

Argentina from 8.4 into 5

Totally justified imo. It's not smart to read too much into one game but they were very, very impressive. Makes me laugh to see England with their two forwards when the Argies can afford to leave Tevez, Cruz, Messi and Aimar on the bench. Scary!

England from 8.6 out to 9.4

They won the group and are unbeaten. They even have a dream draw against Ecuador. Yet their price has drifted by almost a full point. Says it all really. Can't win on current form.

Germany from 9.6 into 8.8

Pretty much a flip-flop with England. Fair enough as they've been much more impressive. Price looks fair, although I think Sweden will give them a very tough game.

Spain from 11 to 10.5

Price remains steady after coming from behind to beat Tunisia. They look very good going forward but I'm not convinced by them defensively. Big chance of meeting France in the second round. Would they be favourites to win that? I'm not sure, despite France's disappointing start.

Italy from 11.5 out to 14

Back out after the overreaction to beating Ghana. Bad day at the office against USA and still have some work to do to qualify. Up against Brazil if they don't top the group. Not for me.


Netherlands from 18 into 17


Hard fought win against Ivory Coast. Still not impressing a great deal. Could draw Portugal next, a game I really couldn't call. Not an awful price but I can't have them.

Portugal from 27 out to 28

Done all that could be expected of them so far. I worry that they could slip up tonight (Scolari resting Pauleta, Ronaldo and others carrying a yellow) and end up playing Argentina.

Czech Rep. from 26 out to 80

Big movers. They really looked poor against Ghana. Amazing considering they looked like world beaters against the U.S. In the end they couldn't cope without Koller (and Baros) and Rosicky couldn't reproduce. I think there could be a little value in this price as I'm far from convinced Ghana will beat the U.S. A point against Italy could well be enough and a win would give them a very nice draw with Croatia/Australia.

The rest.

Ukraine returned to their pre-tournament price after humping the saudis, and have since drifted to 100. Possible knockout opponents are Switzerland, followed by Italy/Czech Rep/Ghana/Group F runner-up. I don't think they should be a three figure price.
Switzerland, Mexico and Sweden all look fair prices to me.
Ecuador didn't bother to turn up against the Germans and are easy to back at 160. I'm sure they will be a far different proposition against England however.
One price I find strange is Ghana at 110. Are they really more likely winners than Switzerland? Just slightly longer shots than Ukraine?
They still have a lot to do to just to qualify, and even then they will probably be meeting Brazil. Scoring goals is their achilles heel. How will they manage this without Muntari and Asamoah Gyan?

Conclusion:

I think Ukraine (again ) at 100 and the Czechs at 80 represent value at this stage.

ilunga

Brazil 3.75

Argentina 5.8

Germany 6.0

Italy 7.4

England 8.4

France 13.5

Portugal 17.5

Ukraine 65


Anyone care to dissuade me from going in on Ukraine (again ) ? I think I'm probably being too greedy though and should just back them to qualify against Italy. I feel they can edge out the Italians and the prices are just plain wrong. Could they get past Germany/Argentina though? Probably a bridge too far. Any ideas what price they would be should they make the last four? 12s?

riccardo

The market says 14s and I think they will be at least that long

This price reminds me of Greece in the Euros... I could never bring myself to lay off... let's hope lightning can strike twice

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"And for my dessert, I will have another bottle of Barolo"

burglar

Ingerland are at least a couple of points too short so there is value somewhere. Probably mostly with the hosts although I wouldn't disagree that the uk rain grinders are worth a bet either outright or to qualify.

Jd007

In the search for value, I wouldn't overlook the favourite.

Like other teams, they haven't really started playing yet, but we saw glimpses of what they can do against Ghana and IMO they have plenty of gas in the tank - still they are winning by comfortable margins. Also I think Argentina may have peaked too early.

When Ronaldinho starts firing then watch out! This could be a classic Brazil side which lets in a goal or two but fires 4 past the other top teams.

budgiebird

We will all have our own individual views of where the value lies, but I have to go with Argentina at 5.9. They were down as low as 4.7 before they qualified for the quarter finals. Obviously the 4.7 was too low at that stage and they needed extra time to qualify against Mexico. However, I feel that the drift in price since that match has been too much of an over-reaction. Mexico played well enough that day to have given any team in the tournament a tough match. Far too much criticism of Argentina and far too little credit to Mexico, imo.

Well that's my first contribution to the soccer forum, I will either be preening my plumage with pride by this time tomorrow night or I will go scurrying back to making posts about Big Brother, in disgrace!!

Gary

overreaction? I think its a correction to the over-reaction in shortening the price in the first place.

Anyway, the outright prices suggest team rankings as follows:
Bra 122.62
Arg 101.08
Ger 100.00
Eng 86.52
Ita 76.04
Fra 69.57
Por 55.26
Ukr -5.95

Each 10pt ranking diff suggests a 0.1 goal supremecy approximately on my ranking system.

If you can find where the rankings are wrong in the above you can find the value.

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idnot haev a dinking porbelm

ilunga

I still think Ukraine are the best value but not the only value. France and Portugal are also overpriced for me. England, Italy and Brazil are underpriced, while Germany and Argentina are about right (although I favour the Argies).

My outright book is very lopsided. Massive green on Ukraine, decent sized green on Portugal, break even on Argentina/France and red on the rest.

It's basically England, Italy and Brazil that are skewing the market imo. They have all been poor so far, and are short on the expectation that they have to start playing well at some point. I just don't see it that way, and will be opposing them all in their quarter final match. I also think Germany are slightly overrated as they haven't yet beaten anyone of any consequence. I agree with Budgie in that Mexico are a very good side, and Argentina deserve a little more credit for coming through that one.

I think Argentina/France/Portugal to qualify is cracking treble at around 14/1. I will add Ukraine as well for the greedy fourfold

riccardo

OK, so we are at the semis

I have two questions regarding Germany:-

1) Are they really 60% to get past Italy? I certainly make them favourites, but not 1.67 shots

2) More pertinently, will they be 59% to lift the trophy if they get to the final? Something like 1.82 vs France and 1.45 vs Portugal? Both of those look on the low side to me

I'm considering getting stuck into laying 2.82 outright... despite having sworn I wasn't going to get involved again after my various ships came in, as they now have...

Thoughts anyone?

__________________
"And for my dessert, I will have another bottle of Barolo"

Shaker

I think Italy will relish the Germany test and I really fancy them to sit back, stifle the hosts, pinch a goal or two and hold on relatively comfortably.