"Bets placed" Thread - Page 3

ilunga · 28th May 2006, 09:39

Decided to go with two of them - Croatia to concede fewest at 33s and Srna to top score for them at 15/2. Also added Pauleta at 33s for top o/r scorer after his hat-trick yesterday. He was a flop two years ago but I'll give him another chance.

Trinidad & Tobago lost to Wales' second string yesterday. Stan James are 6/4 they don't get any points. Looks fair to me. Sweden are 1.31 on BF to beat them. England are 1.22, which could easily drop. Paraguay are currently 1.61. Add them all up and it's only marginally better than 6/4. The danger is the last game being a dead-rubber. I rate Paraguay though, and expect them to give Sweden a tough time. The way I can see the first two games going, I wouldn't be surprised to see Paraguay as low as 1.4 which would make the 6/4 look very generous.

keyser soze · 28th May 2006, 11:21

have placed a acca after seeing T&T looking decidedly conference standard, in world terms. and have taken 1.22 England 1.29 Sweden, 1.40 Portugal over Angola and 1.53 Italy over Ghana. best acca prices at Skybet paying 2.37/1

ilunga · 28th May 2006, 15:07

Bet 365 - Top Arsenal Scorer.

11/8 Henry. He shouldn't need many, up against Adebayor, a half-fit Ljungberg, and Reyes/Van Persie who may not get many games.

colo colo · 28th May 2006, 16:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by ilunga

Trinidad & Tobago lost to Wales' second string yesterday.

I just think it's very dangerous basing your bets on these pre-tournament friendlies. I remember Turkey losing to Ecuador and South Africa pre 2002 World Cup in meaningless matches and they ended up 3rd. I know it's only T & T but I wouldn't place any significant type of money having seen this Wales match.

ilunga · 28th May 2006, 17:03

Totally agree, not to put too much weight on these games. I made it sound as if that was my only reason for placing the bet. It was something I was considering anyway. The result just added to my belief that they really are out of their depth. I mean they lost 5-1 to Guatemala in qualifying! I find it amazing that the CONCAAF group get four (or 3 1/2) WC places. I thought three was too many. FIFA really need to do something about that. Maybe they already are, that's another issue entirely.

drayton · 28th May 2006, 17:22

agree about the qualifying ilunga...why should teams like T&T be in germany when the european champions Greece aren't. ...the whole system needs shaking up IMO.....the present system was designed over 70 years ago when it took weeks to travel across the world, surely now it should be updated making it harder for teams like T&T to qualify.

keyser soze · 28th May 2006, 19:40

thats a pro scottish idea drayton

Bat Man · 30th May 2006, 03:48

[quote=ilunga]Aloisi top Oz scorer 11/2 Centrebet (where i can't get on ) - Four goals in confed cup. Looks like their main source of goals. Viduka seems too short.
[\QUOTE]

I have little clue myself as regards Football but some football following friends of mine tell me that Bresciano at $15 (B365) is good value as he is a penalty taker.

ilunga · 30th May 2006, 08:54

That's a great shout batman.

He didn't jump to my attention, as he only scored twice in qualifying (although one was in their only real test against Uruguay). What I failed to notice was he barely figured at all. I also didn't realise that he was in such great form for Parma in the second half of the season, scoring seven goals in a 13 game period, finishing up with a highly respectsble eight.

14/1 looks excellent value.

davidti · 30th May 2006, 10:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bat Man

Some football following friends of mine tell me that Bresciano at $15 (B365) is good value as he is a penalty taker.

Watched the Australia v Greece friendly and noticed him taking all the set-pieces so yes looks like a good shout.

drayton · 30th May 2006, 18:24

yep good shout bat man, worth a little tickle.

keyser soze · 1st June 2006, 12:53

mathematics suggest this is an 8/15 shot but stan james will give you 5/4 your money.

3 or more of the 16 knockout stage games to go to penalties

Mac's Evil Twin · 2nd June 2006, 15:37

What mathematics are you using?

I guessed at 1/6 prob going to penalties (say 1/3 draw FT, 1/2 draw ET) and got a figure only slightly under evens.

keyser soze · 2nd June 2006, 15:44

i was using Mike Holdens stats in bettingzone stating that generally 20% of all knockout games go to pens

so average 3.2, then using binominal dist to get a 64% chance of 3 or more.

2002 only had 2 but previous 4 had 3 or 4.

Smokin Joe · 2nd June 2006, 16:39

The breakeven point for that bet is 11/2. If you think the chances of going to pens is more likely for each particular game then you bet the 5/4, otherwise don't.

I pondered long and hard about it. The last 4 world cups have had 12 games go to pens, that leaves each game with a probability of 0.1875 of going to pens - in which case the fair odds of more than 2 is 4/6.

However, the numbers have been decreasing with each tournie. (For what it's worth) here are the number of games that went to penalties:

2002 - 2
1998 - 3
1994 - 3
1990 - 4

Personally, I think there might be a smidgen of value in it, but I'd say it's fairly marginal.

Walter · 2nd June 2006, 17:19

I've got

Top-scorer
Toni 33-1 ew
Thanks to Davidti for highlighting this on BZ a few weeks ago.
Klose 33-1 ew
I'm not so sure about this one now. It was struck a few weeks ago, but offers insurance if the Germans do well.

Top Premiership scorer
Ronaldo 40-1 ew
Thanks to Keyser for pointing me in this direction, albeit Chelsea are doing their best to f*ck it up with every day that passes.

Top team scorers
Srna/Croatia 8-1
Scores pens and takes free kicks. Prso likes to fall over a lot as well - which helps.
Rosicky/Czech Rep 8-1
I'm with those who think the Czechs might struggle so it might not take too many and he does score a few.
Dindane/Ivory Coast 11-2
I think Drogba deserves to be favourite for this but only by a point or two, not this many.
Rotan/Ukraine 10-1
Looks over-priced to me.
Bresciano/Australia 14-1
Was interested, but whoever posted the stats about his end of season goals in Italy helped sway me.

First round of matches top scoring team
Poland (v Ecuador) 20-1
Not a big bet but they score plenty against lesser opponents and since the organisers rather inconveniently didn't include a stadium in the Alps, Ecuador could be rubbish. Other teams could be a bit cagey in their first games.

Group forecast
Switzerland-France 11-2
Think it looks over-priced.

ilunga · 2nd June 2006, 18:11

I've a scary amount of bets down already, including most of Walter's

I hope I have enough leftover for match betting.

Walter · 5th June 2006, 23:20

Right, I've just done my outrights now as well.

I spent many lonely hours over the last few months concocting three theories.

I then ditched them at the weekend and backed Mexico at 50-1 and Portugal at 25-1, both e/w 1/4 odds for a semi spot. For reasons too complex - and possibly embarassing - to mention I have decided that the draw might just open up for one of Alternative Atlantic Alliance.

I also have a free bet on Brazil that I have manipulated over time and which adhers more to the research.

Best of luck everyone with your bets. Have a good 5 weeks.

keyser soze · 6th June 2006, 11:26

RP have unearthed a cracker today that i fully agree with

Angola to concede the most goals at 14/1 Corals.

manchestermike · 6th June 2006, 11:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by keyser soze

RP have unearthed a cracker today that i fully agree with

Angola to concede the most goals at 14/1 Corals.

In the entire tourny?

28th May 2006, 09:39	#41 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,711	Re: "Bets placed" Thread Decided to go with two of them - Croatia to concede fewest at 33s and Srna to top score for them at 15/2. Also added Pauleta at 33s for top o/r scorer after his hat-trick yesterday. He was a flop two years ago but I'll give him another chance. Trinidad & Tobago lost to Wales' second string yesterday. Stan James are 6/4 they don't get any points. Looks fair to me. Sweden are 1.31 on BF to beat them. England are 1.22, which could easily drop. Paraguay are currently 1.61. Add them all up and it's only marginally better than 6/4. The danger is the last game being a dead-rubber. I rate Paraguay though, and expect them to give Sweden a tough time. The way I can see the first two games going, I wouldn't be surprised to see Paraguay as low as 1.4 which would make the 6/4 look very generous.

28th May 2006, 11:21	#42 (permalink)
keyser soze Spreads Dept. Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The Golf Coast Age: 42 Posts: 13,814 Blog Entries: 1	Re: "Bets placed" Thread have placed a acca after seeing T&T looking decidedly conference standard, in world terms. and have taken 1.22 England 1.29 Sweden, 1.40 Portugal over Angola and 1.53 Italy over Ghana. best acca prices at Skybet paying 2.37/1 __________________ "Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

28th May 2006, 15:07	#43 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,711	Re: "Bets placed" Thread Bet 365 - Top Arsenal Scorer. 11/8 Henry. He shouldn't need many, up against Adebayor, a half-fit Ljungberg, and Reyes/Van Persie who may not get many games.

28th May 2006, 17:03	#45 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,711	Re: "Bets placed" Thread Totally agree, not to put too much weight on these games. I made it sound as if that was my only reason for placing the bet. It was something I was considering anyway. The result just added to my belief that they really are out of their depth. I mean they lost 5-1 to Guatemala in qualifying! I find it amazing that the CONCAAF group get four (or 3 1/2) WC places. I thought three was too many. FIFA really need to do something about that. Maybe they already are, that's another issue entirely.

28th May 2006, 17:22	#46 (permalink)
drayton Gold Member Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 2,707	Re: "Bets placed" Thread agree about the qualifying ilunga...why should teams like T&T be in germany when the european champions Greece aren't. ...the whole system needs shaking up IMO.....the present system was designed over 70 years ago when it took weeks to travel across the world, surely now it should be updated making it harder for teams like T&T to qualify. __________________ My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic

28th May 2006, 19:40	#47 (permalink)
keyser soze Spreads Dept. Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The Golf Coast Age: 42 Posts: 13,814 Blog Entries: 1	Re: "Bets placed" Thread thats a pro scottish idea drayton __________________ "Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

30th May 2006, 03:48	#48 (permalink)
Bat Man Bronzed Aussie Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Sunny Sydney Age: 36 Posts: 856	Re: "Bets placed" Thread [quote=ilunga]Aloisi top Oz scorer 11/2 Centrebet (where i can't get on ) - Four goals in confed cup. Looks like their main source of goals. Viduka seems too short. [\QUOTE] I have little clue myself as regards Football but some football following friends of mine tell me that Bresciano at $15 (B365) is good value as he is a penalty taker. __________________ I'm a bad widdle boy.

30th May 2006, 08:54	#49 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,711	Re: "Bets placed" Thread That's a great shout batman. He didn't jump to my attention, as he only scored twice in qualifying (although one was in their only real test against Uruguay). What I failed to notice was he barely figured at all. I also didn't realise that he was in such great form for Parma in the second half of the season, scoring seven goals in a 13 game period, finishing up with a highly respectsble eight. 14/1 looks excellent value.

30th May 2006, 18:24	#51 (permalink)
drayton Gold Member Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 2,707	Re: "Bets placed" Thread yep good shout bat man, worth a little tickle. __________________ My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic

1st June 2006, 12:53	#52 (permalink)
keyser soze Spreads Dept. Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The Golf Coast Age: 42 Posts: 13,814 Blog Entries: 1	Re: "Bets placed" Thread mathematics suggest this is an 8/15 shot but stan james will give you 5/4 your money. 3 or more of the 16 knockout stage games to go to penalties __________________ "Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

2nd June 2006, 15:37	#53 (permalink)
Mac's Evil Twin Gold Finger Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 588	Re: "Bets placed" Thread What mathematics are you using? I guessed at 1/6 prob going to penalties (say 1/3 draw FT, 1/2 draw ET) and got a figure only slightly under evens.

2nd June 2006, 15:44	#54 (permalink)
keyser soze Spreads Dept. Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The Golf Coast Age: 42 Posts: 13,814 Blog Entries: 1	Re: "Bets placed" Thread i was using Mike Holdens stats in bettingzone stating that generally 20% of all knockout games go to pens so average 3.2, then using binominal dist to get a 64% chance of 3 or more. 2002 only had 2 but previous 4 had 3 or 4. __________________ "Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

2nd June 2006, 16:39	#55 (permalink)
Smokin Joe Gold Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 2,352	Re: "Bets placed" Thread The breakeven point for that bet is 11/2. If you think the chances of going to pens is more likely for each particular game then you bet the 5/4, otherwise don't. I pondered long and hard about it. The last 4 world cups have had 12 games go to pens, that leaves each game with a probability of 0.1875 of going to pens - in which case the fair odds of more than 2 is 4/6. However, the numbers have been decreasing with each tournie. (For what it's worth) here are the number of games that went to penalties: 2002 - 2 1998 - 3 1994 - 3 1990 - 4 Personally, I think there might be a smidgen of value in it, but I'd say it's fairly marginal.

2nd June 2006, 17:19	#56 (permalink)
Walter Gold Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 4,929	Re: "Bets placed" Thread I've got Top-scorer Toni 33-1 ew Thanks to Davidti for highlighting this on BZ a few weeks ago. Klose 33-1 ew I'm not so sure about this one now. It was struck a few weeks ago, but offers insurance if the Germans do well. Top Premiership scorer Ronaldo 40-1 ew Thanks to Keyser for pointing me in this direction, albeit Chelsea are doing their best to fck it up with every day that passes.* Top team scorers Srna/Croatia 8-1 Scores pens and takes free kicks. Prso likes to fall over a lot as well - which helps. Rosicky/Czech Rep 8-1 I'm with those who think the Czechs might struggle so it might not take too many and he does score a few. Dindane/Ivory Coast 11-2 I think Drogba deserves to be favourite for this but only by a point or two, not this many. Rotan/Ukraine 10-1 Looks over-priced to me. Bresciano/Australia 14-1 Was interested, but whoever posted the stats about his end of season goals in Italy helped sway me. First round of matches top scoring team Poland (v Ecuador) 20-1 Not a big bet but they score plenty against lesser opponents and since the organisers rather inconveniently didn't include a stadium in the Alps, Ecuador could be rubbish. Other teams could be a bit cagey in their first games. Group forecast Switzerland-France 11-2 Think it looks over-priced. Last edited by Walter : 2nd June 2006 at 17:25.

2nd June 2006, 18:11	#57 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,711	Re: "Bets placed" Thread I've a scary amount of bets down already, including most of Walter's I hope I have enough leftover for match betting.

5th June 2006, 23:20	#58 (permalink)
Walter Gold Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 4,929	Re: "Bets placed" Thread Right, I've just done my outrights now as well. I spent many lonely hours over the last few months concocting three theories. I then ditched them at the weekend and backed Mexico at 50-1 and Portugal at 25-1, both e/w 1/4 odds for a semi spot. For reasons too complex - and possibly embarassing - to mention I have decided that the draw might just open up for one of Alternative Atlantic Alliance. I also have a free bet on Brazil that I have manipulated over time and which adhers more to the research. Best of luck everyone with your bets. Have a good 5 weeks.

6th June 2006, 11:26	#59 (permalink)
keyser soze Spreads Dept. Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The Golf Coast Age: 42 Posts: 13,814 Blog Entries: 1	Re: "Bets placed" Thread RP have unearthed a cracker today that i fully agree with Angola to concede the most goals at 14/1 Corals. __________________ "Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

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