Fordy

Hi there,

I'm a sports trader by trade but the reason I've joined this fourm is so I can document my horse laying system selections that I'm testing.

I'm also testing a greyhound laying system (93% SR) and a progressive horse backing system (52% Strike Rate) but I will document the testing for these another time.

Anyway, rules for the horse racing system are:

1) Min Price 3.0- Max Price 10.0

2) No Bet if Selected horse is Favourite and OVER 5.0 at the off

3) Min 6 RUNNERS.

4) LAY THE OUTSIDER IF MORE THAN ONE QUALIFIES (Like in the 4:20).


Today's Selections are:

Dance The Star 2:30 Lingfield - WON (BF 6.31) -5.31 Points
Malapropism 3:20 Catterick +0.95
Pride Of Kings 3:50 Catterick - WON (BF 7.76) -6.76 Points
Jun Fan 4:20 Catterick +0.95
Quicks The Word 4:20 Catterick - NB
Stargazer Jim 6:05 Sandown +0.95
Tubby Isaacs 8:15 Sandown - NB
Loveinanelevator 8:25 Leicester +0.95
Desert Chill 8:25 Leicester - NB
Callisto Moon 8:45 Sandown +0.95


I will proof all results based on Betfair SP prices.

Good Luck for anyone who wants to follow.

I'm about 16 points up in the last 2 weeks but I recommend you only paper trade these until i've established a few more weeks of results

Cheers

Fordy

Hear_No_Evil

Hi Fordy. Can you run us through why you think such a betting system would work, and what the reasons for each rule are? Do you know the performance of such a system over the past x years?

At what level of profit or loss will you be confident that the system works or not?

patrickstar

Why?

What do you do if you find what looks like a great value lay below 3.0 or above 10.0? Just ignore it?

Why?
What if you make him a 20/1 shot?

Why?

Why not lay both?


Good thinking. Just off to Rymans to get myself an A4 pad. Back in about half an hour.

patrickstar

sorry, cross posted with HNE.. doing all those quotes is time consuming!

So basically yeah - what he said.

Starman

What have I done

I ignored your advice to paper trade and went large on your selections this afternoon - two of your (my) lays WON at 9/2 and 6/1.

This is not good - do you have a staking plan to accompany your selections?

Fordy

Hi there,

I only devised the system this month so it doesn't have any past performance and filters are constantly being tweaked until I get the right mix.

I'm only testing guys. I'm looking for value lays based on form/chances of winning. Best staking plan for something like this is Lay 1-4 but we will see.

I would give you all the filters I use but it wouldn't be my system then will it? Give me a month and we will see profit I promise. I'm not one to give up on these sort of things and I am expecting at least 20 points a month.

I expected a rubbish start as it always happens when I start to document stuff to the public

Cheers

Fordy

Fordy

Questions, Questions, Questions.

OK, here we go.

1) Min Price 3.0- Max Price 10.0

This is not a lay a fav system. If a horse is under 2/1 then it has the market backing and obviously has a strong chance of winning (excluding maidens where I always lay the favourite ) . I've noticed some of the selections that I pick are forecasted around 6 to 7/1 but near the off they seem to drift to 13's and 14's. If one of them won (with a forecasted chance of 6/1) then -13 level points is a big hit on the P&L. Having a max price of 10.0 limits these chances.

I am not looking for a weak favourites nor outsiders but horses that are reasonably priced with only a small/little chance of winning (on paper).

2) No Bet if Selected horse is Favourite and OVER 5.0 at the off

You will be suprised to see how many clear favourites win that are over 4/1, especially in quality grade 1/2 races. If he was a 20/1 shot if wouldn't be favourite and would also not qualify in the 3.0-10.0 price ruling.

3) Min 6 RUNNERS.

This is mainly for the winter season/bad weather days when horses pull out. If I issued tips to you guys and went out for the day and in the meantime 2-3 horses pulled out which changes the dynamics of a race then the initial lay selction is in question.

4) LAY THE OUTSIDER IF MORE THAN ONE QUALIFIES (Like in the 4:20).

I dont suggest to lay both because I've selected two horse in a race which i feel have an equal chance of winning. Having this rule lets the market decide which horse has a better chance to win and quite often the market gets it right, believe me.


I hope this answers your query, its not been the best start but investing in horses is not an overnight thing.

Cheers

Fordy

keyser soze

this is going to run and run

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

Fordy

Not really, proof will be in the pudding and all that.

Only the 1st day my friend!!

Mister Logic

Couldn't you have told us this before posting today's selections?

Fordy

Like I mentioned in the 1st post. I recommend you only paper trade these until i've established a few more weeks of results.

The statement that when results go wrong when you go public, is only a myth but seems to happen from time to time.

The joys of a freebie forum!!

keyser soze

no the reason i say it will run and run is because the post above my comment is full of things that others on here will tear to shreds.

i especially loved "I dont suggest to lay both because I've selected two horse in a race which i feel have an equal chance of winning. Having this rule lets the market decide which horse has a better chance to win and quite often the market gets it right, believe me."

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

Fordy

Do you think the market does not give an indication of who's going to win then? I sports trade prices for a living and see the patterns happen all to often.

Some of the most profitable backing systems are based on "Following the Money" so to speak

What is your opinion on this? Constructive comments always appreciated

keyser soze

sports trading for a living and "testing a laying system with the following stringent rules" dont really sit together well

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

Fordy

No, but what I'm trying to say is while trading you notice certain patterns when trading before the off on a daily basis. Late on steamers, steam for a reason, and more often or not seem to be more likely winners than last mintue drifters.

I'd rather lay a drifter before the off (within my price range) than a steamer, when on paper both horses have equal chance.

Again, constructive comments appreciated (I'm yet to have one!!)

Cheers

keyser soze

patrickstar gave you a few.

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

Fordy

The 8:25pm Race tonight has just given me a good enough reason why the above is right. Both horse below have the same form and were priced the same throughout the day however desert chill steamed (a little) and loveinanelevator drifted.

Loveinanelevator 8:25 Leicester +0.95
Desert Chill 8:25 Leicester - NB

Like I say, the proof will be in the pudding

keyser soze

so 1 race decides the system is working

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

Mister Logic

System working, send more money.

What time are you posting the ones that worked tomorrow?

rob280

Can you try and get them on before 11, because I have got to go out then.
Thanks

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