Marcolini

Naval vs Boavista

Very tactical game expected. Not many goal chances, with more concern on defensive strategy, and making another game without losing. Both teams could be happy with a draw...

Naval:
- Made a nice away result last week, winning on Beira-mar by 3-1. But performance was poor, they got 1-2 by an unexisting penalty, and 1-3 by a goal in clear off-side.
- Orestes and Nei, two key players are back in good form, and are the only ones in the team that really can be decisive in a game.
- They have more points on away games then on home games.
- Recently in poor form, maybe the last week result can change something on them.

Boavista:
- Lots of games without losing, but also, only 1 win in the last 7 matches. Is this good or bad? It was good, until they draw against Belenenses at home last weekend. Now, it seems everyone is talking about the lack of winnings, instead of period without losing.
- Very defensive team, with hard tackling, and based also on very strong and physicall midfield line up.
- They lost at home against Naval 0-1 on 1st half of the season. Looking for a small revenge here.
- They can catch Naval on league table if they win this one (both will be with 27 points).

Odds:
- Line opened with +0.25 for away side. This could be value, but only with odds around 2.00. I give this a very close estimation to 50-50% chance. But value isnt allways everything, and I can't call a winner pick here. Skip it.
- Clear UNDERish game. But, what's this? Line on 2 goals (?!?!), Under available with such low odds ("!#"!#$#)... damn bookies... have to skip it too.

Marcolini

FT 1-1.

Both teams happy with the draw.

Marcolini

Sporting vs Est. Amadora

Sporting will try get back to winnings. They have been playing nice, but results have been poor. Its a attitude problem, more then actually a technical or a tactical problem.

Sporting:
- Sporting has not been on the best of moments in championship. Next week they play against Porto, and if they care for a little hope on the tittle race, they can't have anything else then the 3 points in this game.
- Djaló will probably be the player replacing Liedson up front. Team will lose in presence in the box, but will gain in speed, flair and technic.
- Few newspapers talked about what player's wages mean, telling that some players dont worth the money club pays for them. Coach asked them to make a killing match and prove them wrong.

Est. Amadora:
- After a long and nice series of games without losing, Est. Amadora lost at Braga 2 weeks ago. On the game after that, they won at home 1-0, but result could have easily been 1-1 as well. Maybe their motivation is not the same it was before.
- Est. Amadora made a surprising win at Porto, with one goal in 2nd half injury time. That match showed that they were really lucky, since Porto controlled the match, created many chances, and just moments before the Est. Amadora goal, everyone was saying that even the draw was a miracle for Est. Amadora.
- Team is very good in defense, but allways lack power up front, to make opportunities, and will be hard to get back into the game against Sporting, if they conceed an early goal.

Odds:
- Big movement from -1.5 to -1.25, and already -1 can be found around 1.75-1.80. This is wrong. Maybe -1.5 could be a bit high given the current form of both teams, and the absence of Liedson. But giving -1 for Sporting in a game like this, is just wrong. Medium bet should be done on Sporting -1 @1.78.
- Line on Over/Under hardly offers any chance of value on either side.

Marcolini

Sporting 3-1 FT

Nice. Djaló, the replacer of Liedson, scored 2 goals. Sporting created many chances in the first half.

NEW_WORLD

great as always

Marcolini

Maritimo vs Porto

Important match for Porto, coming back to domestic competitions after being sent out of every other competitions (UEFA Champions and Portuguese Cup). This is a typicall hard match for Porto in this ground.

Maritimo:
- Will change their usual tactics for play in counter attack against Porto.
- They are still fighting for UEFA Cup places, so they also need points.
- No strikers will be on starting eleven, squad will be lined up with strong midfield, which is the place where Porto has been showing superiority in the last games in domestic league.

Porto:
- Some players may show first signs of too many matches in the last days. Also, mood its probably not the best, now that Champions league dream is over.
- Helder Postiga and Bosingwa are both out with small injury problems.
- Porto last win on this ground was on 2001/2002 season.
- Jesualdo Ferreira said something about trying to save some of the players that have been more active to the team. Also, next game is against Sporting, and 3 players in midfield are all with 4 yellow cards, and can't afford to see another one, or will be suspended for next week.

Odds:
- Line of Maritimo +1 at around 1.75 seems pretty safe. Worst case scenario would be Porto making a hard win here, but never by 2 or 3 goals. Small stake advised on the home side.
- Over/Under line at 2.25 goals seems fair. Last games here were 1-1 and 2-2, 2 times each, in the last 4 seasons. No value here.

Mister Logic

The Gold room awaits Marcolini methinks.

Marcolini

Porto 2-1 FT.

Porto made an excelent and killing opening. Getting easily to 2-0. Like expected, Maritimo fighted very much to get back in the game. They played better then Porto only on all second half long. Getting a late goal, but trully deserved. No one lost money here, i hope! Pick void.

Marcolini

Benfica vs Leiria

Both teams very interested in making points here. Pressure is on Benfica, since they are favorites and running for the tittle. Luisão (Benfica central defender) will be the key player missing in this match.

Benfica:
- Porto won yesterday, this means that they can't afford to lose this game, because league is now on decisive moment, with Porto playing both Sporting and Benfica in the next 2 match days.
- Benfica has changes in defensive line that can bring problems to the team. Luisão has proved more then once that he is definitly the KEY element in defence. In the 5 minutes after he was injured in Paris (UEFA Cup game), the team suffered 2 goals.
- Up front, things are excelent. Nuno Gomes, Derlei and Micolli are in good form. Only Katsouranis is in doubt, and he is also very important in midfield to give support to the front line.
- Benfica home record is almost perfect: they only draw one game (0-0), and it was against Boavista, hitting the post 4 (!!!) times. All the other games were more or less comfortable wins.

Leiria:
- Since Sougou has been injured, Harrison has been the best player in Leiria's squad. The brasilian playmaker has everyone's hopes on him. He brings flair to midfield, and creates many chances and assists. He will be the player to watch on Leiria squad.
- Leiria has been a very "underish" team lately. They know that the miss of their key player up front ment that they had to change tactics too. They are now a more "counter-attack" team then ever this season.
- Leiria recent form away from home is not good.
- Some financial problems were reported by some of the players, complaining that they get their wages very late, and month by month it gets worst. But against Benfica, these problems should have no influence at all. Benfica, as a big club, should be motivating enough.

Odds:
- Line is probably a bit high for this match. Benfica concerns on next UEFA cup game this thursday, can change squad concentration very easily. But, going on Leiria side can also be very tricky, for the simple fact that Benfica will try to score very early, and if they can... Leiria will be finished. Benfica on counter attack is probably the best team in Portugal.
- On Over/Under same story. It will all depend on what minute can Benfica get in front of the scoresheet. Very tricky line too.

No bet game. Just watching it will be nice. Probably will try something on LIVE, in the line of what I stated before.

Marcolini

Benfica 2-0 FT.

Not easy to do better against Leiria. Second goal only at 85'...