TheHMan

Blackburn available at 21.0. Surely this is overpriced??

Any body out there tell me why not, a win at Watford tomorrow puts them right in there. Everton, Bolton and Portsmouth in February and they are right on form. Should be opportunity to lay off I reckon.

TheHMan

I should elaborate I think with some analysis. Apologies for the rushed nature of the first post.

Blackburn are generally available at 20/1 and this seems overpriced to me as they are the form team in this market at the moment. Their competitors are Spurs, Everton, Bolton and Portsmouth IMO.

Everton will miss AJ badly and Beattie doesn't convince me. They will struggle to score goals although they are difficult to beat due to solid enough defence.
Spurs(H), Liverpool(A), Blacburn(H), Watford(A).

Bolton look fragile to me at the moment. They have not been able to strengthen in the window and Anelka is unpredictable. What happened against Boro??
Charlton(H), Watford(A), Fulham(H), Spurs(A).

Portsmouth are a team of average players that Redknapp has playing above themselves. I don't think they can keep it going.
Boro(H), Wigan(A), MCity(H), Blackburn(A).

Spurs, and I should mention that I'm a Spurs season ticket holder are infuriatingly inconsistent. The emphasis is very much on the cups and UEFA in particular. We are vulnerable defensively without King, although he should be back this week, and if anything happens to Berbatov we may never score again!
MUtd(H), Everton(A), Sheff Utd(A), Bolton(H).

I think therefore that by the end of Feb it will be very tight between these teams with Spurs maybe slipping away and that the price available is too high. I have backed at this price and will look to lay off by the end of Feb.

feedingthe-ego

Reading contenders as well?

TheHMan

Can't see it. A lot of tough games but fair play so far, certainly taught my team a lesson recently. I think they will struggle to pick up anything away from home. They have a couple of key injuries now as well, Doyle, Kitson, Sonko. I think they will slip away a bit now.

feedingthe-ego

Yep _ I read about injury probs - seems like your a shrewd judge - I might have a nibble - thx for the info.

TheHMan

Lets hope Blackburn don't slip up at Watford tomorrow.

ilunga

Good post Hman. I see you're a Gold member now. There's a thread called 'Reading's chances' that might interest you.

Mr Fanclub bigged up Blackburn's chances a while back. I didn't go in then but I will now. They had a bit of a blip but seem to be back on track now. McCarthy and Nonda can trouble any defence on their day, and the rest of their team look pretty solid. This market still looks wide open to me. Bolton were very shoddy defensively against Boro. Ben Haim is a big loss I think. I wouldn't read too much into that defeat though. It was one of those days where everything clicked for my team. Downing played a blinder, and Viduka and Yakubu caused no end of problems with their strength and movement. Spurs are predictably short, while Pompey seem to be struggling for goals at the moment. Everton are too inconsistent, and will miss AJ as you say. Not sure how long he's out for. Bolton are obvious favourites but it would only take a few injuries and they could easily come back to the chasing pack. It will be interesting to see if Big Sam is able to strengthen his squad, because I think fatigue could be a factor at some point. He's not really able to rotate his players at present. 20/1 is definite value. Cheers for the heads-up.

Hobbo

20/1 was certainly value - hence why it is now only 5.9 on BF. Was this price being offered anywhere else? Great spot, just got on too late...

TheHMan

Still available at Bet365, Betfred, Tote & VC.

Hobbo

just found it at Skybet aswell, with 1/3 odds for 1st, or 2nd finish (so 5th or 6th finish)...

TheHMan

This is getting interesting now after looking like a very bad call for a while! Blackburn biggest price now 18/1 and as low as 10/1 (VC). Only 2 more games each in March (1 for Spurs) and I can see a situation where there is only 3 or 4 points separating all of them. i would expect the price to drop more after the next round of games BBurn/West Ham, Reading/Pompy, Spaurs/Watford, Everton/Arsenal.

Falbrav

Just can't see Blackburn doing it myself. They've been on a good run and with not having the strength in depth, I can see them dropping points on the run in. No bet for me, but would go Spurs if had a gun to my head.