Individual Matches Thread - Page 5

Stoichkov · 15th June 2006, 09:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by stump

Maybe it's because i'm french i say that so be carefull. But it's what i think.

Oh yeah, the clues were there!

Bienvenue .

burglar · 15th June 2006, 14:09

I wouldn't put anyone off laying Ingerland at the skinny price but I'm playing T&T on the A/H. It's gonna be hot (again) and 2-0 would be an adequate result without busting a gut. Not a foregone conclusion....If they win 4-0 good luck to them I'll take the loss.

keyser soze · 15th June 2006, 14:36

ok i am going to say it in a betfair forum type of headline, and of course everything has its price. but...........................

COSTA RICA WILL BEAT ECUADOR

there ive said it, no amending post at 2.25 when they are 3 down.

i cant believe the world is taking the ecuador game, one 90mins of football against a team who havent exactly reversed their form in game 2, as a sign that we have a new world order consisting of brazil, argentina, england, germany then ecuador with italy and spain lagging behind.

2-0 costa will get it right up them.

all hoopla style posting aside, ecuador to lay on the "to qualify" is a fantastic bet as you get two bites at the cherry.

costa win today they go odds on to go thru.
however, draw and they can still get thru by beating poland if germany win or draw v ecuador.

colo colo · 15th June 2006, 14:50

Agree with everything you say in general, ks, and I hope you win your bet.

But I've just had the pleasure of watching the Poland - Ecuador again in a desperate attempt to find an angle. Two things that stood out for me was that 1) Suarez totally outplayed Janas tactically. He countered Polands 4-5-1 with a rather unique 4-2-2-2 formation, basically making Poland's two attacking midfielders (Krzynowek and Smolarek) ineffective and 2) they were miles ahead of Poland on fitness and physical strength.

I can imagine that both of these factors will play a big part in this afternoon's result. I agree Ecuador is an awful value bet but it could still be a winning one.

Good luck.

ilunga · 15th June 2006, 14:59

Nice contrast of views. I agree with both

I actually posted that on BF last night keyser. A draw would give Costa Rica a decent chance to qualify so laying Ecuador at 1.2 or less looks a no-brainer. I had a little Poland as well at 42. Stranger things have happened. Just a small-medium lay of Ecuador for me as I'm not convinced Costa Rica can be trusted.

I've had a small lay of Sweden but what looks a better bet is the overs at 2.56. Ignore the first two games, they shouldn't be affecting the price so drastically. There won't be any heat issues this time with it being a late KO. Valdez (I think) has come out and said they will be going all out for the win.

I expect similar tactics from the swedes. If anything to get the supporters onside after the 0-0 shocker. Going for a bore draw and relying on a favour from Svennus isn't going to appease the masses.

keyser soze · 15th June 2006, 15:11

bollocks

colo colo · 15th June 2006, 17:04

Has to be said, it was a match between men and boys.

Reminded me of what a colleague said to me when I was mocking Ecuador's chances pre-tournament, "would you say the same thing if they had some World Cup pedigree like, say, Uruguay?". "Course not", I replied. "Well, these boys finished well ahead of them in their qualifying group". I rolled my eyes at the simplicity of his argument. Sometimes it's best to keep it simple.

steved · 16th June 2006, 09:25

today

Back Holland 2.06 Betdaq…1.72 chances on FIFA rankings

steved · 17th June 2006, 09:24

Saturday

Lay Portugal 1.34 (1.92 on FIFA)

Lay Italy 1.45 (2.86 on FIFA) (should back USA at 10.5 as 2.86 on FIFA, but realistically probably need the draw running for me!) Will sell Italy supremacy

Back Czech Rep 1.63 (1.41 on FIFA)

ilunga · 17th June 2006, 09:29

Steve, is this just the FIFA ranking you are using? No offence but can you really take them seriously when it throws up 2.86 Italy and 1.92 Portugal? I know the favourites have to start slipping up sometime but still... Do the first round of games have no relevance in your system?

DarkStar · 17th June 2006, 09:53

My take on today's games.

The Czechs impressed the socks off me the other night, thought they were tight, compact, dynamic, ruthless and generally performed well in all areas of the park. Think Ghana, for all their passion, are going to find themselves technically overwhelmed tonight.

Portugal looked OKish, but didn't really seem to want to win very much. Iran on paper are garbage but everyone assumed Tunisia would steamroller them and they didn't, put up a good fighting performance. Looks like a halfhearted Portugal win or draw in this.

The USA looked fucking woeful, worse even than England, and moreover with even less clue. So I don't think I am gonna take on Italy who probably will want to score a few in this one.

steved · 17th June 2006, 20:05

yes, it is FIFA rankings with 25 ranking points added to European sides and Argentina and Brazil...(that is a Pullein 'fudge' which sort of makes sense as comp is in Europe...)

Italy have 728 points, USA 756...add 25 to Italy to get 753 plays 756...expected supremacy '0.0'...% chance of win/draw lose 35/30/35...I think USA ranking in particular is way out...

I look at results in earlier rounds but do not have access to necessary committe of FIFA officials to adjust ranking...but I think it would only be small amount anyway...but I do scale my bets to these results...

Bets are in front, but lays are behind...for same reason as mentioned by you, favs are winning...

I am not 100% convinced myself, but it is a quick way to get a bit of fun on the footie, and i do not come to much/any harm by them...

FIFA are overhauling process after World Cup, so that will be interesting...I think they need a look...he says as selections go 0/2 for day so far...don't worry, the yanks will do the business!

stump · 18th June 2006, 10:13

Hi,

Brazil - Australia on the 10 last match for the Brazil and Australia, the both did 4 under and 6 over (the Australia opposent wasn't very good

).

On the Paper, the Brazil do an offensive squad, for the other i d'ont really know but they have few good players.

At this time on BF, the over is at 1.79, but its 'maybe better to wait, because it look like to grow up.

I dont go to bet it, but i think there is maybe a chance for an over.

ilunga · 18th June 2006, 10:27

I like the overs too stump. I expect better from Brazil today. Only Kaka performed against Croatia. I fear for the Aussies. Getting anything out of Brazil is hard enough but if you're leaving out players like Moore and Cahill... Popovic could be in for a tough afternoon.

steved · 18th June 2006, 12:01

Lay Croatia at 1.64 (2.78 on FIFA)
Lay France at 1.43 (1.89 on FIFA)

No, I am not laying Brazil! (1.30 on FIFA, 1.24 on BF to lay, too close)

burglar · 18th June 2006, 13:31

Braz/Aus is a longshot HT/FT but is it really 150/1 ?...recalling the aussies' last effort...
A more realistic punt may be +1.75 around evens.

the_mgt · 18th June 2006, 13:42

If you are going down that road,burglar,you should look at BRA-DRAW at 33-1 with xxxxxxx Chandler.
That result makes a bit of sense and if Brazil lead by one at H/T......who knows ?

DarkStar · 18th June 2006, 14:54

Yesterday was something of a nightmare for me, survived with most of my bank intact but had to do some furious trading to get myself out of trouble with a couple of what were fairly confident bets for me. Let's hope today is somewhat less exciting

steved · 19th June 2006, 08:35

today

Lay Switzerland at 1.46 (1.85 on FIFA)

Lay Ukraine at 1.46 (3.13 on FIFA !!!) (I checked that and SA are rated 43 points higher, so even taking off 25 points for European based match, they are still 17 in front)

Lay Spain at 1.34 (1.92 on FIFA)

1qa2ws · 19th June 2006, 11:16

Saw the Brazil game yesterday and don't think they're playing much better than England. It was only when the Aussies were chasing the game that Brazil really exposed them.

They will not win the World Cup.

15th June 2006, 14:09	#82 (permalink)
burglar Throbbing Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,578	Re: Individual Matches Thread I wouldn't put anyone off laying Ingerland at the skinny price but I'm playing T&T on the A/H. It's gonna be hot (again) and 2-0 would be an adequate result without busting a gut. Not a foregone conclusion....If they win 4-0 good luck to them I'll take the loss.

15th June 2006, 14:36	#83 (permalink)
keyser soze Spreads Dept. Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The Golf Coast Age: 42 Posts: 13,873 Blog Entries: 1	Re: Individual Matches Thread ok i am going to say it in a betfair forum type of headline, and of course everything has its price. but........................... COSTA RICA WILL BEAT ECUADOR there ive said it, no amending post at 2.25 when they are 3 down. i cant believe the world is taking the ecuador game, one 90mins of football against a team who havent exactly reversed their form in game 2, as a sign that we have a new world order consisting of brazil, argentina, england, germany then ecuador with italy and spain lagging behind. 2-0 costa will get it right up them. all hoopla style posting aside, ecuador to lay on the "to qualify" is a fantastic bet as you get two bites at the cherry. costa win today they go odds on to go thru. however, draw and they can still get thru by beating poland if germany win or draw v ecuador. __________________ "Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

15th June 2006, 14:50	#84 (permalink)
colo colo Gold Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 1,017	Re: Individual Matches Thread Agree with everything you say in general, ks, and I hope you win your bet. But I've just had the pleasure of watching the Poland - Ecuador again in a desperate attempt to find an angle. Two things that stood out for me was that 1) Suarez totally outplayed Janas tactically. He countered Polands 4-5-1 with a rather unique 4-2-2-2 formation, basically making Poland's two attacking midfielders (Krzynowek and Smolarek) ineffective and 2) they were miles ahead of Poland on fitness and physical strength. I can imagine that both of these factors will play a big part in this afternoon's result. I agree Ecuador is an awful value bet but it could still be a winning one. Good luck. __________________ "He's on his final hole. He's about 455 yards away, he's gonna hit about a 2 iron I think."

15th June 2006, 14:59	#85 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,724	Re: Individual Matches Thread Nice contrast of views. I agree with both I actually posted that on BF last night keyser. A draw would give Costa Rica a decent chance to qualify so laying Ecuador at 1.2 or less looks a no-brainer. I had a little Poland as well at 42. Stranger things have happened. Just a small-medium lay of Ecuador for me as I'm not convinced Costa Rica can be trusted. I've had a small lay of Sweden but what looks a better bet is the overs at 2.56. Ignore the first two games, they shouldn't be affecting the price so drastically. There won't be any heat issues this time with it being a late KO. Valdez (I think) has come out and said they will be going all out for the win. I expect similar tactics from the swedes. If anything to get the supporters onside after the 0-0 shocker. Going for a bore draw and relying on a favour from Svennus isn't going to appease the masses.

15th June 2006, 15:11	#86 (permalink)
keyser soze Spreads Dept. Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The Golf Coast Age: 42 Posts: 13,873 Blog Entries: 1	Re: Individual Matches Thread bollocks __________________ "Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

15th June 2006, 17:04	#87 (permalink)
colo colo Gold Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 1,017	Re: Individual Matches Thread Has to be said, it was a match between men and boys. Reminded me of what a colleague said to me when I was mocking Ecuador's chances pre-tournament, "would you say the same thing if they had some World Cup pedigree like, say, Uruguay?". "Course not", I replied. "Well, these boys finished well ahead of them in their qualifying group". I rolled my eyes at the simplicity of his argument. Sometimes it's best to keep it simple. __________________ "He's on his final hole. He's about 455 yards away, he's gonna hit about a 2 iron I think."

16th June 2006, 09:25	#88 (permalink)
steved Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 875	Re: Individual Matches Thread today Back Holland 2.06 Betdaq…1.72 chances on FIFA rankings

17th June 2006, 09:24	#89 (permalink)
steved Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 875	Re: Individual Matches Thread Saturday Lay Portugal 1.34 (1.92 on FIFA) Lay Italy 1.45 (2.86 on FIFA) (should back USA at 10.5 as 2.86 on FIFA, but realistically probably need the draw running for me!) Will sell Italy supremacy Back Czech Rep 1.63 (1.41 on FIFA)

17th June 2006, 09:29	#90 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,724	Re: Individual Matches Thread Steve, is this just the FIFA ranking you are using? No offence but can you really take them seriously when it throws up 2.86 Italy and 1.92 Portugal? I know the favourites have to start slipping up sometime but still... Do the first round of games have no relevance in your system?

17th June 2006, 09:53	#91 (permalink)
DarkStar Gold Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Plymouth, Devon /Fredericia Denmark Age: 51 Posts: 484	Re: Individual Matches Thread My take on today's games. The Czechs impressed the socks off me the other night, thought they were tight, compact, dynamic, ruthless and generally performed well in all areas of the park. Think Ghana, for all their passion, are going to find themselves technically overwhelmed tonight. Portugal looked OKish, but didn't really seem to want to win very much. Iran on paper are garbage but everyone assumed Tunisia would steamroller them and they didn't, put up a good fighting performance. Looks like a halfhearted Portugal win or draw in this. The USA looked fucking woeful, worse even than England, and moreover with even less clue. So I don't think I am gonna take on Italy who probably will want to score a few in this one.

17th June 2006, 20:05	#92 (permalink)
steved Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 875	Re: Individual Matches Thread yes, it is FIFA rankings with 25 ranking points added to European sides and Argentina and Brazil...(that is a Pullein 'fudge' which sort of makes sense as comp is in Europe...) Italy have 728 points, USA 756...add 25 to Italy to get 753 plays 756...expected supremacy '0.0'...% chance of win/draw lose 35/30/35...I think USA ranking in particular is way out... I look at results in earlier rounds but do not have access to necessary committe of FIFA officials to adjust ranking...but I think it would only be small amount anyway...but I do scale my bets to these results... Bets are in front, but lays are behind...for same reason as mentioned by you, favs are winning... I am not 100% convinced myself, but it is a quick way to get a bit of fun on the footie, and i do not come to much/any harm by them... FIFA are overhauling process after World Cup, so that will be interesting...I think they need a look...he says as selections go 0/2 for day so far...don't worry, the yanks will do the business!

18th June 2006, 10:13	#93 (permalink)
stump Magnificent Bastard Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: 48°51'54.65"N ; 2°16'23.98"E Posts: 156	Re: Individual Matches Thread Hi, Brazil - Australia on the 10 last match for the Brazil and Australia, the both did 4 under and 6 over (the Australia opposent wasn't very good ). On the Paper, the Brazil do an offensive squad, for the other i d'ont really know but they have few good players. At this time on BF, the over is at 1.79, but its 'maybe better to wait, because it look like to grow up. I dont go to bet it, but i think there is maybe a chance for an over. __________________ It is true that I was wrong... but I remain convinced that I could have been right... Last edited by stump : 18th June 2006 at 10:41.

18th June 2006, 10:27	#94 (permalink)
ilunga Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: london Posts: 5,724	Re: Individual Matches Thread I like the overs too stump. I expect better from Brazil today. Only Kaka performed against Croatia. I fear for the Aussies. Getting anything out of Brazil is hard enough but if you're leaving out players like Moore and Cahill... Popovic could be in for a tough afternoon.

18th June 2006, 12:01	#95 (permalink)
steved Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 875	Re: Individual Matches Thread Lay Croatia at 1.64 (2.78 on FIFA) Lay France at 1.43 (1.89 on FIFA) No, I am not laying Brazil! (1.30 on FIFA, 1.24 on BF to lay, too close)

18th June 2006, 13:31	#96 (permalink)
burglar Throbbing Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,578	Re: Individual Matches Thread Braz/Aus is a longshot HT/FT but is it really 150/1 ?...recalling the aussies' last effort... A more realistic punt may be +1.75 around evens.

18th June 2006, 13:42	#97 (permalink)
the_mgt Justified Ancient of Mummu (Administrator) Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Lilliput Age: 25 Posts: 28,350	Re: Individual Matches Thread If you are going down that road,burglar,you should look at BRA-DRAW at 33-1 with xxxxxxx Chandler. That result makes a bit of sense and if Brazil lead by one at H/T......who knows ?

18th June 2006, 14:54	#98 (permalink)
DarkStar Gold Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Plymouth, Devon /Fredericia Denmark Age: 51 Posts: 484	Re: Individual Matches Thread Yesterday was something of a nightmare for me, survived with most of my bank intact but had to do some furious trading to get myself out of trouble with a couple of what were fairly confident bets for me. Let's hope today is somewhat less exciting

19th June 2006, 08:35	#99 (permalink)
steved Gold Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 875	Re: Individual Matches Thread today Lay Switzerland at 1.46 (1.85 on FIFA) Lay Ukraine at 1.46 (3.13 on FIFA !!!) (I checked that and SA are rated 43 points higher, so even taking off 25 points for European based match, they are still 17 in front) Lay Spain at 1.34 (1.92 on FIFA)

19th June 2006, 11:16	#100 (permalink)
1qa2ws Gold Member Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 3,325	Re: Individual Matches Thread Saw the Brazil game yesterday and don't think they're playing much better than England. It was only when the Aussies were chasing the game that Brazil really exposed them. They will not win the World Cup. __________________ Think differently.

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