Individual Matches Thread

[keyser soze]

now starting to look at individual matches and initial thoughts was a surprise that Poland are considered odds against shots against Ecaudor.

never one to perform well away from their own patch, ecaudor could really struggle to cope in another continent against a side initially who are walking distance (almost) from Germany and who were quite impressive in England's group when pitted against inferior opposition.

given its the first game and nerves can come into play etc etc may affect the price, i would still rate Poland as as low as a 4/5 8/11 shot.

[colo colo]

Agreed.

This may be an overreaction to the negative news coming out of Poland lately (surprise omissions from squad, defeat against Lithuania in a horrible match). Imo this should have no bearing on a match against the likes of Ecuador.

[keyser soze]

i'm actually now looking at another way of playing this one.

Sporting Index offer matchmakers where its the goals scored between two choices irrespective of what their opponents within their own match score.

at a price of 0.15ch it seems a fair trade to get with poland to knock in more against Ecuador than the Czechs, who may struggle to score similar against the States.

the other option is to pick Ecuador and pitch them against a side expected to score a few.

the downsides of course is that you start at a handicap of 1+ goals, but buying Portugals goals v angola or sweden against T&T will set you back a goal of a start against Ecuadors abilty to score against Poland.

tough one.?

[Mister Logic]

I think you are in danger of over-egging the pudding so to speak. I am as suprised as you are that Poland are odds-against, but what's wrong with the straightforward approach? There would be nothing worse than, for example, Poland winning 3-0 then seeing the Czech's put three past the US.

Keep it simple. 5pts win Poland.

[ilunga]

Keyser, I think you're quite right to be wanting to take on Ecuador. I'm just not sure about Poland at the moment. I would want to have a look at their friendly performance to see what sort of condition they are in. It is tough to guage the importance of these friendlies though. If you think they can re-produce their qualifying form, then it looks a nice bet.

SPIN's matchmakers is interesting. Colo you might have an opinion on this one - Italy over France at 0.2. It would be better if it was goal difference rather than goals scored but still looks good to me.

[keyser soze]

Originally Posted by Mister Logic

I think you are in danger of over-egging the pudding so to speak. I am as suprised as you are that Poland are odds-against, but what's wrong with the straightforward approach? There would be nothing worse than, for example, Poland winning 3-0 then seeing the Czech's put three past the US.

Keep it simple. 5pts win Poland.

although, yes i am over complicating the bet, take a step back and stop seeing it as poland against ecuador and now see it as a 4 team cross bet.

my argument being that poland's ability to score goals against ecuador is greater than the price being offered in a match bet against the Czechs' ability to score against USA

it is in effect a bet with poland and america against ecuador and the Czechs.

[Mister Logic]

I see your point, but I would only do it if I was as strong on US/Czech as you are Poland/Ecuador. If not, then why not just buy Poland's supremacy over Ecuador? Surely, you expect less Ecuador goals v. Poland than Czech goals v. US?

[keyser soze]

Originally Posted by Mister Logic

I see your point, but I would only do it if I was as strong on US/Czech as you are Poland/Ecuador. If not, then why not just buy Poland's supremacy over Ecuador? Surely, you expect less Ecuador goals v. Poland than Czech goals v. US?

a fair point. and certainly i wouldnt do this bet till all firms are up with prices as a difference of opinion may change one option as being the value trade.

[keyser soze]

a rolllup of 4 teams that pays 9/5 is probably not anyones idea of a fair value bet but i really cant see a banana skin in opposing trinidad with england and sweden, togo with france and angola with portugal.

thoughts?

[ilunga]

I've taken the plunge on Italy at 1.61. I really can't see it getting any bigger. Things seem to be going from bad to worse for Ghana.

http://www.myjoyonline.com/sportsart...p?p=11&a=25102

Keep an eye out for their game with Turkey tonight.

[Stoichkov]

Ouch. Quite what happens now? Surely he must be sacked?

Ratomir Dujkovic: That was the key to our success. Discipline is the biggest problem with Black Africans. They have none. Africans have a different mentality from Europeans or the South Americans.

[ilunga]

I'm sold on Poland now. As short as 4/5, I'm having the 2.1 on BF. I don't see any evidence to suggest they can cut it on european soil. Losing to Macedonia is a bit of an embarrassment. There's also frictions in the camp -

'Ecuador's preparations for the World Cup have been disrupted after a fight broke out between two of their key players.

The dispute between striker Ivan Kaviedes and midfielder Edwin Tenorio began at the Eloy Alfaro Military School and the relationship between the two men remained tense when the squad travelled to New York, where they played out a 1-1 draw with Colombia.

Tenorio is said to be upset with the attitude of Kaviedes, arguably the star man of the squad, who has a 'bad boy' reputation and refused to participate in the pre-World Cup training sessions.'

[ilunga]

I've bailed out of the Italy bet.

I feel I've perhaps been a bit harsh on Ghana. They're currently 2-0 up early on against Jamaica and playing very well apparently. Ok it's no real yardstick but when they put out their best 11 it's actually pretty decent. Their ANC failure shouldn't really be a factor, as they were missing key players.

It's also a bit of trepidation regarding Italy's preparation. Who knows how seriously this match-fixing thing has affected them. Leaving well alone.

[keyser soze]

Germany v. Costa Rica

have taken
65 on 2-2
550 on 1-3
340 on 2-3

all 3 prices however unlikely to come in just seem to be a lot higher than their true chance.

[ilunga]

Can't argue with that. I've gone the 2-2,3-3,2-3,3-2 route. This German side will leak goals. Probably not in this one but well worth a poke at the prices.

[keyser soze]

have also got a few quid on 7+ at 46. normally this market is a lay when you get to the big numbers but arguably the chance of 7 gls in this game is <40

on to Poland and ive got 3-0 at 26 and UNQ at 17 which are fair IMO

and further afield

england 3-0 and UNQ at 16 and 13

[steved]

have laid Germany at 1.27 after working out FIFA rankings, which, even after applying Pullein intercontinental and home advantage tinkering has them as 4/5 shots...

[manchestermike]

Was going to lay Germany with a view to buying back at half time depending on how the match is going, but an early goal would obviously scupper that. I can't see this game being high scoring despite the thoughts of lunghy and keyser, I'm thinking a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline here. Hoping for a 0-0 at half time so I can lay off my stake and watch the rest of the game.
Also, how Poland are odds against is beyond me -0.5 on the Asians @ 2.11 with 1% commission has me here. Will also have a tickle at the 3-0 and unquoted in this one.

[sprintmeister]

Poland 1.75
Ecuador 5.5
Draw 4.0

Decent scoreline to Poland 3-0, 3-1. is the way i see it

no view on other game, hope Germans get stuffed though

[manchestermike]

Originally Posted by sprintmeister

Poland 1.75
Ecuador 5.5
Draw 4.0

Decent scoreline to Poland 3-0, 3-1. is the way i see it

no view on other game, hope Germans get stuffed though

1.75? With who?
2.1 still with BF