"Bets placed" Thread

[keyser soze]

depends how "certain" you want them to be.

and of course there is always a failure you least expect. maybe better to look at the 2nd and 3rd rated teams in each group and choose one

alternatively of course you could do a perm and have both running for you safe in the knowledge that unless the rag goes thru with the jolly in one group your fairly certain to cop a winning line, however little that may end up being.

[1qa2ws]

Hmm. Not great prices are they?

I don't think France are any way nailed on but it's such a soft Group. I'm tempted to lay Mexico as well. Thinking Portugal will go through and maybe Angola can surprise.

[ilunga]

Mexico would be one of my bankers I was doing a 'to qualify' acca. I don't rate Angola at all. No team can match Mexico when it comes to preparation.

I would include Switzerland as well, and USA at a nice price.

Think I'll check on those prices now.

[keyser soze]

mexico and the states always seem to be discarded by punters/firms here who look at their high ranking and immediately assume it is skewed when in fact they both perform fairly well when it comes to the crunch.

im looking for a way to support mexico, and it may be best of all to support borgetti for top scorer as opposed to the team itself.

angola and iran are surely there for the taking in the goals for department.

[manchestermike]

Outright Winners all betfair

Germany @ 9.8
Sweden @ 46
USA @ 90
Serbia @ 115
Poland @ 160
Switzerland @ 160

Top GS
Torres@36
Klose@32
Borgetti@65
Larsson@90

[ilunga]

I'm on a few of those too Mike

Good old Betfred. I'm trying to place a 'to qualify' acca on Mexico, USA, Poland and Switzerland.

'Betslip contains some related selections, only unrelated multiples will be placed.'

[thegreat]

quirk of the system

[ilunga]

Any way around it? I would quite like to get some bets on. I tried adding Croatia to make it fourfolds but that's not working either

[ilunga]

I've wanted to get with USA in some way and think this is the best way. Straight forecast - Italy/USA at 7/1 with SJ.

I'm discarding Ghana straight away as there's obvious disharmony in the camp and, Essien and Appiah side, they have a very average squad.

I think the Czechs are worth taking on. They have and ageing squad with no real world cup pedigree. Nicking this from Miguel on Bettingzone but they also have a poor record against non-european teams, with Brugener having admitted he doesn't possess a great deal of knowledge about his first-phase opponents.

I expect good things from the U.S. but not quite good enough to pip the Italians to top spot. 7/1 is a good price imho.

I've been adding a few more lately -

Switzerland/France straight forecast 9/2

Ronaldo Top Premiership G/S 33/1 and 40/1

Angola/Togo to finish bottom of their groups 2/1

Angola/Togo/T&T/Ghana/SA all to finish bottom - speculative acca.

Germany outright 8/1 (money back if knocked out on pens)

To finish third: Iran 11/8, Paraguay 11/8, Korea 13/8, Tunisia 11/8 - trebles and a fourfold.

Essien top Ghana G/S 10/1

Dindane top IC G/S 7/1

Gerrard top England G/S 10/1

Ayozi top Ecuador 20/1 and Al Shlhoub top SA 10/1 (smaller bets)

Really building up now

[keyser soze]

Originally Posted by ilunga

Angola/Togo to finish bottom of their groups 2/1

where is this, seems better than a 2/1 acca that ive put in the "matches " thread

[keyser soze]

its ok, ive seen on oddschecker its PP.

however, expekt are up now and its 2.3/1 with them having a far better opinion of the angolans

[ilunga]

Thought 2/1 was fair. In any case, I can't seem to bet with Expect.

Had to sign up to Skype just to get this one on with Betfred, so hope it's worth it.

To qualify acca -

Mexico 1/3
Switzerland 4/6
Croatia 10/11
Poland 8/13

All four look generous prices.

Croatia look the most dodgy but I think they're a cut above Japan (don't score enough goals) and the Aussies (who I think are very overrated). If they lose to Brazil first up, there could be some nice prices knocking about.

[keyser soze]

adding Trinidad in who really must make angola and togo look like Brazil makes it 100/30 at expect and a shade under 3s at PP

the only downside to this is for those already on the 3rd place acca. it tends to force the chance of a winning bet down to forecasting 3rd AND 4th correctly in a few of the groups.

[ilunga]

Just read Davidti's bettingzone column. I didn't nick your bets Dave, honestly Great minds think alike and all that.

[keyser soze]

expekt wont allow anything bar singles on the groups so the "who will finish 4th" perm is best at PP and arguably not as good value

[keyser soze]

in fact, maybe Ilunga's basic 2/1 double is a better bet than a "one will let you down" perm.

[keyser soze]

decided on 2 singles at Expekt who wouldnt accept doubles or higher

Angola at 1.95 and Ecuador at 3.10 to finish bottom.

adding: on ilunga's info re Ghana, the 2.00 at BSQ looks value, odds on elsewhere.

[keyser soze]

boylesports are doing a "goals handicap" bet. hopefully the following copy paste wil lcome out ok, but basically its the team, the price, the start, the spread firms exp goals, and the two figures added.

there is less than 2 goals between all teams but i think the firms have underestimated Holland, Costa Rica and Mexico and have split stakes 3 ways accordingly.

Angola 25 9 2.1 11.1
Argentina 22 4 7.8 11.8
Australia 25 8 3.3 11.3
Brazil 8 0 10.5 10.5
Costa 25 9 2.7 11.7
Croatia 25 7 4.4 11.4
Czech 25 5 6 11
Ecuador 25 8 3.4 11.4
England 20 3 8.4 11.4
France 20 3 8.8 11.8
Germany 25 2 8.2 10.2
Ghana 25 9 2.4 11.4
Holland 25 5 6.5 11.5
Iran 25 8 3.4 11.4
Italy 25 4 6.7 10.7
Ivory 25 8 2.8 10.8
Japan 25 8 2.8 10.8
Mexico 25 5 5.5 10.5
Paraguay 25 7 4.4 11.4
Poland 25 6 4.8 10.8
Portugal 25 4 7.6 11.6
Saudi 25 9 2.3 11.3
Serbia 25 8 3.6 11.6
South 25 8 3.1 11.1
Spain 25 3 7.6 10.6
Sweden 25 5 6 11
Switzer 25 6 4.6 10.6
Togo 25 9 2.3 11.3
Trinidad 25 10 1.6 11.6
Tunisia 25 8 3.6 11.6
Ukraine 25 6 5.2 11.2
USA 25 7 3.8 10.8

[ilunga]

Interesting market but I think I'll leave alone.

This looks a very solid double - Germany/Poland 4/5 and France/Swizerland 4/5. SJ's dual forecast market. You could even throw in Mexico/Portual at 2/5 for the treble.

[ilunga]

Any thoughts on these?

I'm dilly-dallying because I feel I have enough bets down, especially team scorers, and don't want to over-egg the pudding.

Stern John top T&T scorer - 7/2 Coral

Obviously they might not score at all but I think he's decent value simply because Dwight Yorke is way too short. 10 in qualifying. Yorke didn't bag one.

Aloisi top Oz scorer 11/2 Centrebet (where i can't get on ) - Four goals in confed cup. Looks like their main source of goals. Viduka seems too short.

Srna top Croatia scorer - 7-8/1

From what I read he's a wing-back but hard to ignore his five goals in qualifying. Prso and Balaban are hardly prolific. Klasnic the obvious danger.

C Ronaldo top midfield scorer - 14/1 BD

Advanced role for Portugal, should see oportunites against Angola and Iran.

Croatia to concede fewest goals - 33/1 BD

Brazil first up. If they can keep the champs down to one, could be well in with a shot. Worth chancing at that price I feel.