"Bets placed" Thread

[keyser soze]

i'm really struggling, albeit it is 5 weeks away, to find a few bets for the world cup. so i thought it would be a good idea to have a thread where people post up who/what they have backed, with hopefully a reason for the bet.

then if anyone agrees they can latch on. at the moment i'm convincing myself the Dutch can win this but havent really found the avenue yet to back up that belief. one bet i have put on though is

Buy Total Tournament Goals on the spreads at 161 (Spreadfair)

basically, 161 last time out in humidity in japan, 169 in the only other 64 game event, in France. There seems little downside and although of course there is limited upside also its a price that arguably should be 4 - 5 points higher.

this equates to 2.51 a game and even although the premiership is currently running towards a low total it is still averaging 2.47.

[keyser soze]

a fair cover bet for this bet is to back Italy to score the 21st goal of the event in Corals pontoon market.

they play in the 11th game and if the first 10 games have an average at 2 or slightly less then you are getting 12/1 your cash italy obliging in their game with ghana

[gazman]

I am sure I remember Keyser that you had a very profitable spread threat on another forum 4 years ago.I know golfs your main game these days but it would be good to get something similar here now that us randoms are allowed entry.I was looking at own goals given that more seem to be awarded these days but any win would be low 2 or 3 at best.Italy are notorious low scorers but their total goals appear low with Spin,maybe with Toni and Gilardino up front they might make hay,certainly the draw appears favourable..I am hoping you are correct with your buy of goals cos the last thing we want is a dull WC.

[keyser soze]

Hi Gaz, i assume you mean sports advisor. if so who were you

oh and get posting, 1 post is too low

[jonnygold]

Being devil's advocate here (and cherry-picking these scores from France 98 ) but ..... assuming that the lesser teams are closer (ability) to the big names than 8 years ago, is there less chance of these kind of scores in 06 ?

France 4-0 Saudi
Holland 5-0 Korea
Argentina 5-0 Jamaica

and therefore Total Goals might be abt right

Though i do like the idea of more humidity, less action.

[gazman]

yeah theres a couple of guys still kicking about from the sports advisor forum .derek the rugby league chap is on bookiebusters and the man is making his money at betfair.Harder these days ,played spins player performance market for years but harder than ever to make money .Followed stanley onTT for a while but even hes toiling.You ve done better in recent weeks.Im just needing some inspiration to trade this WC .No doubt there wil be plenty specials coming but at the mo can see little.Good to see spreadex going on line.they had a good bash in Edin last year trying to drum up business at least they take a bet.So will we go with bet 1

5 point total goals at cantor spreadfair at 161 (spin 162 no comission)

[keyser soze]

you never told me who you were

dont give up on stanley, will probably still come out at the end of the yr same as any other.

[ilunga]

I've had a fair few bets so far. Most of them at speculative odds.

Outright Market:

Spain 24 (18.5 now) Perennial underacheivers they may be, but I think they have a well-balanced squad this time (good defence, strong midfield in Alonso, Xavi and Fabregas, creative wide men reyes, joaquin and goalscorers torres and villa). Their group doesn't look too tricky.

Serbia 120 Best defensive record in qualifying (one goal conceded), finishing above Spain in what was a pretty tough group. Very similar profile to Greece two years ago.

Switzerland 370 (160 now) Were arguably more impressive than France in qualification. Drew with them twice, but were much the better team at home. Unlucky not to qualify automatically. Underrated imho.

Ukraine 75 Won the 'group of death' with ease. Price just looks too big.

Ghana 220 (330 now) Not really sure why I backed them. It was before the ANC. If they play like that again it could be embarrassing for them. Some internal problems going on. Fans are not happy at all with their coach.

Top G/S Bets

Villa 70 (now 42) Didn't get much on unfortuately. He scored a hat-trick two weeks ago and the layers woke up. Still a decent price for a guy scoring for fun in La Liga, playing for a good side with an easyish group. I expect him to start ahead of Raul/Torres. He surely has to based on this season's form.

Huntelaar 170 (now 120) Scoring for fun in the Dutch league.. That price will look huge if he is given the nod ahead of out-of-form Van Nistelrooy.

Borgetti 75 (60) Proven goalscorer. Should get a few chances with games against Iran and Angola.

Zurawski 170 (120) Same as above.

Larsson at 80. Still has plenty of goals in him. With Ibrahimovic out of form, Sweden will be relying on him. Hat-trick against Trinidad would be nice.

I have another in mind but can't find a good price. Why do BF never put up any of my requests

I've had a top team g/s acca as posted on another thread. Also permed last 16 and QF at just above evens, on the 'when will England be eliminated' market.

Double on Ukraine and Switzerland to win their groups at 5/2 and 9/2.

Another group winner treble Poland 9/2, Portugal evs and Brazil 4/11.

Mainly opposing France and Germany with those with those, as I just don't rate them much.

[keyser soze]

updating my "bets placed"

Bought Total Tournament Goals at 161 SF

Sold england goals at 8.4 SI

Sold France goals at 9.0 SI, Bought at 8.6 SE

back 3 or more knockout stage games to go to penalties 2.25 Stan James

laid 0-17 red cards at 2.12 BF

Backed Walcott to beat Rooney's youngest intl player record at 6/5 Ladbrokes. BET WON

1st round Acca - Sweden v T&T, England v T&T, Portugal v Angola and Italy v Ghana 2.37/1 Skybet

Treble "to qualify" on Poland 1.63, Mexico 1.33 and USA 2.62

Treble to score 0 points on T&T 2.2, Angola 4.5 and Togo 4.33

Angola to concede the most goals at 15 corals

Angola to finish bottom of Grp D 1.95 Expekt

Ecuador to finish bottom of Grp A 3.10 Expekt

Ghana to finish bottom of Grp E 2.00 BSQ

Bresciano to be top Australian scorer 15.0 Expekt.

Dos Santos to be top Tunisian scorer 5.00 Bet365, laid stake at 3.0 BF

Rotan to be top Ukraine Scorer 12.00 Expekt

Rodriguez to be top Argentinian scorer 34 Skybet.

Holland (5), Costa Rica (9) and Mexico (5), stakes split 3 ways on Boylesports Goals Handicap Market. all at 25/1

covering 2x2x2x1x1 = 8 bets on Paddy Powers 3rd place finish market
Group B - Paraguay and Sweden
Group D - Iran
Group E - USA and Czech Rep.
Group G - Switzerland and S Korea
Group H - Tunisia


Backed Italy to score the 21st goal of the WC (coral pontoon bet) at 12/1 (basically as a hedge to the total goals bet)

Backed Gerrard to be top England goalscorer at 10/1 Corals, laid off stake at 7.0 when he scored against Hungary.

C Ronaldo top scorer from EPL clubs 33/1 BetDirect

[ozz]

Top goalscorer
Mostly each way bets as three goals will normally be good enough for at least a share of the place market

McBride ew @ 350/1 - Betdirect
Big price in a market where 3 goals should land a place

C Ronaldo ew @ 125/1 - Betdirect
Advanced role for him and 7 goals in 18 competitive internationals

Borgetti ew @ 66/1 - Betdirect
31 in 64 for Mexico - a much better player than we've had a chance to witness in the Premiership

Ballack ew @ 50/1 - PPower
30 in 63 for Germany - wanted bigger but 12/1 the place is just about acceptable

Larsson ew @ 80/1 - Betdirect
Still got it as proved on Wednesday night

Gerrard ew @ 66/1 - PPower
In great goalscoring form and the possible advanced role bodes well

Beckham ew @ 100/1 - general
Set piece and penalty taker and three goals may be all we need to land the place



Winner - all on Betfair

Serbia & Montenegro @ 119/1
Defensively superb and price just too high

Ukraine @ 84/1
Tough qualifying group which they walked. I wouldn't lay at bigger than 40

Switzerland @ 299/1
They were actually bigger than this and are now 160. Still too high and have the ability to spring a few surprises

[TheBrigadier]

Germany (outright) - 5pts @ 8/1

Miroslav Klose (Golden Boot) - 1.25pts e/w @ 28/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

[keyser soze]

3rd place market.

with the correct cover it seems a fair shout to suggest these will give a fair run.

covering 2x2x2x1x1 = 8 bets on Paddy Powers 3rd place finish market

Group B - Paraguay 11/8 and Sweden 100/30
Group D - Iran 11/8
Group E - USA 13/8 and Czech Rep 13/5
Group G - Switzerland 2/1 and S Korea 13/8
Group H - Tunisia 11/8

min returns to a 1pt accumulator = 91/1, max = 263/1 with an 8pt cost.

reasons:

A is too close to call so is left out
B is surely between paraguay and sweden in that Trinidad will finish last and england will get thru whether 1st or 2nd.
C is left alone - group of death
D Iran look a stick on here because mexico and portugal are far superior but iran seem superior to angola
E Italy should get thru in the same way England should so with Ghana as potential whipping boys the states and the czechs fight for getting 2nd
F brazils group, all 3 others could conceivably finish anywhere, left alone.
G France are arguably poorest of the 8 main seeds but like england and italy should get thru, leaving togo as probable last place and the others trying to get 2nd.
H spain and ukraine too good for tunisia and saudi who like the iran/angola split should see tunisia come out on top in their match-up.

[ilunga]

Interesting market Keyser.

I fancy a little fourfold on four of your teams - South Korea, Iran, Tunisia and Paraguay. I think they're all unique in being a fair way better than the rags, but not good enough to qualify.

[Mister Logic]

Originally Posted by ilunga

I think they're all unique...

You've been speaking Chinese too long old chum

[ilunga]

Thankyou sir. Wish you happy every day.

PS Where are you come from?

[Mister Logic]

[gazman]

Great write up on the third place teams keyser ,followed you omitting the Togo group.

I ve added Podolski the young German at 40s for top scorer,likely to start.There are some good bets for team top scorers kicking about,might adapt a similar practice with the perm .

What about Chapmans golf spread tips last week ,did he get lucky or do you rate his spread column?Often thought he picks from the heart without the stats to back him up.You did wel I remember on a winnining score in the PGA? last year (massive money moved spread quickly) ,but you seem to stick to just the match bets and FP these days.

[keyser soze]

he did do well but although i havent taken a note of all his tips P&L the way i did 3 yrs ago i would very much doubt he is even in profit for 06 so far.

apologies to him if im wrong but ive read the RP most weds/thus and i dont remember a sustained run of profit.

[keyser soze]

Originally Posted by gazman

You did wel I remember on a winnining score in the PGA? last year (massive money moved spread quickly) ,but you seem to stick to just the match bets and FP these days.

i might look again at specials like scores or hole bets but not 72H matches or indices, the spread just kills the advantage and at the end of the day if a player has a good price in one market it usually follows thru all the markets so if you have a particular like or dislike of someone the FPs or the 18s is the best option IMO to test your beliefs.

[1qa2ws]

A bit less complicated than the third place finish, but any ideas of a good accumulator to qualify? Could be like picking players to win in the first round of a Grand Slam.