mistermind

teamsports, surely you did get out after all the Cassandra soothsaying? None other than Richard Branson has said oil is headed for $200, and who is more moderate and modest than Richard?

It is not only oil rising, it is the dollar sinking. With the Fed printing dollars like confetti, why wouldn't the dollar sink?

Oh for the enchanted days when oil was $90.40 a barrel!

riccardo

A friend of mine is an oil options broker... they have traded, at 20c, a December $300 call.

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mistermind

If so, the oil bears will be instantly buried --
along with any chance to avoid worldwide Recession if not Depression.

Starman

Settled at 36c last night

mistermind

If Obama makes it to the White House he will be there in January. Meanwhile there are six months left for a lame duck President. Could desperate countries try something while George Bush is still around?

chemist

News sites full of official denials now. I don't think Bush would approve an attack unless he has information that Iran's nuclear programme is far far more advanced than has been generally reported, and I don't think Israel would attack without US approval.

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The Saint

The whole episode is so simple - just compare it to your first day at school...a bit scarey....meet a friend... meet a girlfriend....lose interest in certain things....get older...want a challenge....become president of the Student Union....a bit scarey....meet a friend... meet a girlfiend....lose interest in certain things....get older...want a challenge....become president of the USA..........

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teamsports

Thread started 13/11/07 .. maybe a bad day, to start a thread.

Oil now back below $90, after going to the moon (and costing me packets).

Wonder how the oil producers now feel ? Do we blame them ? Is, or was it the hedge fund speculators, who took control of the mkt.

Presumably, the oil revenue now to the middle east, has severely been curtailed, and the demand destruction may hurt revenues for the next few yrs. I suppose they can just leave it in the ground, and hope the electric car, doesnt take hold.

Where to from here .. dunno .. presumably it will fall to below $80, but woudnt want to bet (much) on it.

Steady

A lot of analysts on bloomberg in the last fully expect it to fly upwards sooner or later... others believe that will be something of a signal that the equity capituation has occured..

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Starman

I don't think that $75 will get breached and feel that we may see a bounce from these levels ($88ish) to something above $100 but as a client told me earlier "bottom-pickers become cotton-pickers"

Starman

Maybe the US can't afford to fill the SPR anymore

mistermind

Expert cuts $200-a-barrel oil forecast to $45 - Times Online
December 13, 2008

Quote:

Expert cuts $200-a-barrel oil forecast to $45 The leading Goldman Sachs oil analyst, who had been one of the market's biggest bulls this year, predicting that crude could hit $200 a barrel, has slashed his 2009 forecast to $45, blaming “incredibly weak demand” as the global economy plunges into recession. Arjun Murti, the New York energy analyst for the US investment bank, came to prominence in 2005, when he was among the first to predict accurately a “superspike” in prices to more than $100 a barrel. For each of the successive three years, his forecasts were consistently higher - and usually closer to the mark - than those of most of his peers. However, Mr Murti was left red-faced this autumn when his prediction that prices could reach $200 proved far-fetched. Instead, they nosedived from a high of $147 a barrel on July 11 to $48.50 yesterday. In a research note published late on Thursday, Mr Murti's team said that it had been compelled to trim its average price outlook for next year to $45, from a previously reduced forecast of $75, because of a “continued deterioration in global oil demand”. The note read: “Global economic conditions are the weakest the world has seen since at least the early 1980s and demand is declining at an accelerating rate.” Mr Murti added that demand for crude was so weak that Opec, the cartel of 13 oil-producing nations, which will meet next week in Algeria, would be unable to force prices higher through further production cuts. “We think that the sharp and sudden collapse in global oil demand exceeds Opec's ability to, on its own, balance markets, and necessitates sharply lower non-Opec crude-oil supply,” the report said. Nevertheless, Mr Murti also asserted that there were signs that crude prices could be close to a turning point. “We see a growing number of signs that oil markets have entered the bottoming phase of the cycle,” the report said, adding that positive demand growth and shrinking non-Opec supply would push prices to $70 a barrel by 2010 and to $105 by 2012. “We do not believe oil markets are on track for a decade-plus period of weakness like seen in the 1980s and 1990s,” the report said.

DOGS THAT BARK

Odd statement from who lives where gas prices are double most places regardless cost of oil?

FWIW This person just locked in price of gas @ $1.55 a gallon for next ten years.

Bought equivilant of gas I'd use in next 10 years in shares of UGA (United States Gas Fund) which mirrors price of gas. If gas goes up--fund does accordingly--if gas goes down--what I lose on fund I save in gas--so its a wash regardelss of what happens--so price of gas is not a factor-I set my own price.

Lesson here is--take responsiblty of your own fate-instead of laying blame elsewhere.