teamsports

The bulls were talking $100 a barrel, but its slipped back, over the last few
days, and is about to breach the support level of $90.

Anyone got a view, where to .. now.

I am short from $91.40, and was doing my coconuts .. when it hit $97 - but,
am feeling a bit better now. Anyone trading this ??

Starman

$100 per barrel is a self-fulfilling prophecy IMO, and will happen before year-end.

The way the WTI reacted around $90 looked ok yesterday. Having said that, I was expecting a larger bounce this morning (Z7 currently up 70 cents). Inventory data this afternoon should be interesting (a draw of 750k barrels expected).

The big question for me is where does it go post $100.

Starman

By the way, does anyone know a good system for roulette?

keyser soze

ive bought all of klove's and i am now selling them. i will accept payment in oil

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

teamsports

Hate roulette, you cant get enuf on.

Back to the real casino .. the stock mkt -

I have spoken to 3 oil consultants this yr, who ll tell me costs of extraction are getting lower, there is more and more of the stuff being found, and demand isnt that great anyway. Yet the price keeps going up !!

Is it speculators ?

If a recession kills off demand, (which I think unlikely - especially in an election yr), oil might retreat to under $80 .. is it really likely, we can see $100 + for a sustained period ?

I recall the head of BP, on Bloomberg some 4 mths ago, saying he thght oil would be $60 - maybe hes a total twat - but, how can they all be so wrong ?

Starman

Some ramblings

End users have a greater appetite of light sweet crude than they do for the lower quality OPEC output - which means that increased production (particularly from Saudi) is not having the desired market impact.

Is it speculators? At least part of the move is obviously speculative.

The lower dollar will support the market to an extent.

The strength of Chinese demand softens the potential damage from a US recession.

The now former head of BP Lord John Browne is certainly not a twat (nor is he rumoured to be particularly fond of them).

WTI for December 2015 delivery settled last night just shy of $82.

Keyser - how big is your car?

Smokin Joe

It appears to me that the recent rise and falls of the oil price have followed the movements of the USD.

Has that always been the case or is it a new phenomenon?

Starman

There's always been a high (negative) correlation.

Starman

How robust is this market?

Big build in inventories (up 2.81m barrels vs expectation of a 750k barrel draw) and Jan WTI is now trading above the pre-data release price.

feedingthe-ego

my son has built a website for an oil price analyst, check it out for free ENERPY LTD: Oil Market Consultancy

__________________
what time is the highlights show tonight?

teamsports

Sorry - Novice question

The Cl Nymex Dec contract stopped trading last week, as the Dec contract stops trading on Nov 16.

When does the official price for the Dec contract get posted ?

Do u know a good site, to find all the monthy close prices ?

Thks

Starman

The final settlement price is the official NYMEX settlement on the sixth business day before the the twenty-fifth calender day of the month preceding the specified contract month. For the F8 contract this equates to December 18.

The official final settlement for CLZ7 was 95.10.

I don't know of a website for getting historical settlement prices, I have access to Bloomberg / CQG in the office.

Starman

New $99.29 high for CLF8 today (although back down to $97.41 currently)

teamsports

Yeah, luckily, reduced my exposure (a little), but would like to see it pop above $100, so I can sell some more.

It doesnt make too much sense to me .. US economy expected to slow down, but oil keeps going up. Sure, dollar weakness is a part of it, but,
am happy to be a seller at thee levels, and take my lumps if it goes pear.

riccardo

I'm sure you have already considered this ts, but China's energy usage will soon outstrip the USA's

__________________
"My ASS, No blame!"

patrickstar

Fundamental arguments for high oil price:

>Rising demand from developing coutries (china, india..).
>Geo-political tensions in the middle east (iran).
>Falling capacity or inability to cost-effectively increase production - ('peak oil').
>Weak dollar - which pushes the price (when measured in dollars) up by default, and also carries a risk of destablising the world economy - which could in turn impact oil prices (if the current relatively harmonious trade relations break down).

On top of that you apparently have a lot of speculation in the market and the seemingly relentless push (self fullfilling prophecy as it was put earlier) to the psychologically significant $100/barrel mark.

I think the key question is: What proportion of the price is due to speculation?
And the answer will probably come shortly after it hits $100, as you'd probably expect a pull back proportional to the level of speculation at that point if there was nothing else holding it up.. probably including an over-reaction on any downward movement.

Of course it could go to $100 and stick there, or shoot on up to $150 in no time. I really have no idea! and as such will not be betting on it!


My predicition (just for fun):
$100 reached before christmas (maybe this week??).
Short term pull back to about $80-$85.

Mid to long term who knows.. Depends on how bad the US recession is and how much it impacts on the rest of the world. Also them not doing anything rash in Iran..

Unless you have a major slowdown in China and other developing countries (brought about by US contagion) then I can see $150/barrel within a year maybe, as the dollar continues to devalue relative to the asian/arab currencies.

Starman

Down $3.80 yesterday
Up $3.50 today (so far)

teamsports

$90 looks a very important support line .. if it manages to break 90.40, I think
there is a good chance, the way to $85 is wide open.

Currently 91.50 .. some interesting fights ahead.

Starman

Support broken

$89.48 currently

DOGS THAT BARK

" Depends on how bad the US recession is and how much it impacts on the rest of the world."

What recession?--we've had the longest expansion in history of U.S. which has came despite a trillion+ dollar hit to economy on 911-the greatest natural disaster (Katrina) so while I expect economy can't run at full tilt and will taper off I certainly wouldn't write in recession even with sub prime fiasco--my reasoning is corp earnings still there as well as record low unemployment. I expect to escape a recession up till late 08 at least. Then will have to reconsider depending on elections.

With that being said-- reduced U.S. holding to lowest ever in 06--preferring Emerging Markets-Canada and European stocks.