patrickstar

Yes, a recession in the US is of course not a foregone conclusion, although an increasing number of forecasts seem to be stating an ever increasing chance of one.
As you say, the longest expansion in history - so a recession is certainly 'due', if not seriously overdue...

The election does muddy the waters a bit but I'll stick with a recession in 2008 if you want a bet (just for fun).. see you back here late next year for the apportioning of bragging rights

DOGS THAT BARK

Would agree with you that one is due my friend--just hope its as shortlived as last and same expansion follows. Believe your thread title on oil holds the key.I find it almost unbelievable that global economies have boomed with price of oil this year--it defies logic. South Korean market will be worth a look in 08 if there is no world wide pullback IMO. New pres there is very pro business.

patrickstar

Think I saw Warren Buffet was talking about S Korea, so you're probably on to something there!

Just seems kind of risky to me (much like everything does!), in the short term anyway.

US manufacturing figures out today much poorer than expected - tips the scales a bit further to recession..

Oil nearing $100 again.. and gold rocketing to a new all time high.

Stagflation?

patrickstar

Oil hits 100 bucks.

So will we see a pull back now?

Starman

A brief history of oil prices. Approximate prices are for one barrel of crude oil on world markets, in 2006 U.S. dollars. During the past five years, total global consumption has totalled about 84 million barrels per day.

Mid-19th century: Modern oil era begins with wells in northwest Pennsylvania.

1861 - 1867: Wild price fluctuations in fragmented market, with prices ranging between 10 cents and $10.

1870: John D. Rockefeller and partners create Standard Oil Co., which achieves virtual monopoly over U.S. oil production by 1878.

1901: The Spindletop well in Texas, the world's biggest gusher, expands industry outside the U.S. Northeast, but production gluts market, and depresses prices, which had been about $1 a barrel.

1911: U.S. Supreme Court declares Standard Oil to be an "unreasonable" monopoly and orders it broken up into 34 independent companies. Average price $15-$20.

1908 - 1920: Mass production of Ford's Model T automobile creates rising demand for gasoline and subsequent higher oil prices, with a peak of about $30 in 1920.

1930s: Worldwide Great Depression depresses gasoline demand and oil glut reduces price to about $12.

1933: Texas' dominance over oil production enables the Texas Railroad Commission, the energy regulator in the U.S. southern states, to stabilize prices for decades.

1939 - 1945: Second World War brings U.S. government price controls, with oil prices at about $15.

1956: Britain, France and Israel attack Egypt in a bid to reverse its nationalization of the Suez Canal, the main source of supply of oil for Britain and France. Prices hit $19.

1960 - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) formed by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, and quickly dominates the world oil market, producing greatly increased prices of about $16.

1973 - 1976: Price rises to as high as $46 after OPEC slaps oil embargo against the United States, its allies in Western Europe and Japan, which had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt in the Yom Kippur War. OPEC also cuts production to maintain high prices.

1978: Revolution sweeps the Shah of Iran from power and installs a radical Islamic government in the major oil producer. Prices rise to $42.

1980-91: OPEC's power and oil prices decline in the face of conservation efforts in Western countries.

1980: Iraq invades revolution-weakened Iran. $86.

1982: U.S. imposes price controls on domestic oil. $68.

1986: Oil demand and price drops to as low as $13 after global economic recession batters demand for oil. Plunging prices depress Alberta's oilpatch, which was still reeling from the impact of the National Energy Program imposed by the Liberal government of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau.

1990: The United States and allies launch the Gulf War to expel Iraqi invaders from Kuwait. $28

1998 - 1999: A flooded market and an economic crisis in Asia knocks prices down to a 50-year low of about $15, until OPEC cuts its production, sparking another price increase.

2000 - Series of OPEC quota cuts leads to higher oil prices. $21.

2001 - Prices rise to about $26 following Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

2003 - U.S. invasion of Iraq sparks a continuing upward trend in oil prices, to an average $32 in 2004 and $60 in 2006.

2007 - Rose to more than $98 before settling back into the low to mid-90s because of worries that a U.S. recession would depress demand.

Jan. 2, 2008 - Prices rise above US$100 a barrel for the first time ever, reaching that milestone amid an unshakeable view that global demand for oil and petroleum products, especially from fast-growing China and India, will continue to outstrip supplies.

Starman

$120 more likely than $80 IMO

chemist

Different sources give different prices, typically averaged, but I believe light sweet crude oil traded as high as $39.50 in December 1979, which would be about $110 today adjusting for inflation. The current bull market in crude is much more sustained than previous spikes in 1979 and 1990 though. I wonder when Americans will end their love affair with trucks as family cars.

__________________
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teamsports

Dun my bollox

chemist

Sorry to hear that. Bollox are over-rated anyway. Really.

__________________
People who like this sort of thing,
will find this the sort of thing they like.

patrickstar

through $125 now for both Nymex Light Sweet and Brent

mistermind

5 years after the climactic start of the Iraq War in 2003

In dollar terms oil has risen from. $38 to $125 - a rise of 229%.
In sterling terms it has risen from £24 to £ 64 - a rise of 168%.
In euro terms ....it has risen from €38 to € 81 - a rise of 113%.

By contrast over the same period gold rose from $360 per ounce to $880 - a rise of 144% in dollar terms.

Food prices have shot up in no less a place than New York City.
Oh Teamsports, why ever did you sidetrack yourself from the horse world you know, to trade in this brown liquid? It was not only the rise of oil, it was the fall of the mighty dollar.

teamsports

I GOT BORED .. now, wish I had found a good book.

I have manfully been against, blowing stops at $111, $118, $124.

Now, it may be a time to pause .. but, can see myself going back in and selling, next week.

Its getting personal ...

mistermind

BBC NEWS | Business | Supply fears push oil beyond $126

No doubt Sheikh Mo is laughing, and Russian leaders are laughing. What is it to them that the third world is now up in riot over skyrocketing food prices? In New York City, no less, food prices doubled in one month.

Supersmart UBS's CEO has been given the bullet, possibly he allowed himself to get personal while chasing losses. There is an epidemic of disasters right now. But a time will come, to get even without getting mad.

teamsports

Heard some interesting stuff on Five live, about number of cars in GB.

Apparently, there are now 27 odd million, up 5 million in the last 3 yrs, so, demand can hardly be slowing. What that does for our roads .. can't be good - mabe we should e looking at buyin road mantenance companies.

mistermind

BBC NEWS | Business | Oil above $127 for the first time


Quote:
Oil prices have hit a record high above $127 a barrel on speculation that China will need to import more fuel, stretching global supplies.

With more energy needed to rebuild areas devastated by the earthquake earlier this week, US light sweet crude jumped to $127.43 a barrel.
Prices were also supported by Goldman Sachs forecasting that oil would reach $141 a barrel later this year.

London Brent crude also climbed, touching $125.82 a barrel.
"Tight supply conditions continue to be the primary catalyst for higher crude prices," Goldman Sachs analysts said.

Pressure on Opec
Prices have risen by about 25% since the beginning of the year, lifted by geopolitical worries and the weakening US dollar, which makes oil cheaper for foreign buyers.

At the same time demand from fast-growing Asian economies, notably China, has exacerbated price pressures.

mistermind

Sir Richard Branson: $200 oil on way - Telegraph

patrickstar

T. Boone Pickens on CNBC right now saying we'll see $150 a barrel this year.

Says there is no speculation and it's purely supply and demand - the world can only produce 85M barrels a day and it uses 87M.

Also condeming the US's energy policies - currently sending $600Bn a year around the world to buy oil. Bush&co are wasting their time trying to get the Saudis etc to increase production to try to get the price down. It's not that they won't, it's that they can't. And whatever slack the US can create by reducing its own demand is instantly snapped up by China.

patrickstar

another day another new record.. $132

mistermind

Four decades ago astronomer Fred Hoyle wrote that any civilisation on any planet which discovers fossil fuel and relies on it, must make the technological transition to alternative energy sources (such as nuclear electricity) before fossil fuels run out.

Homo sapiens on planet earth have made the technology leap but not the political leap. Some experts say the tipping point where new oil discoveries are swamped by new oil demands, will arrive as early as year 2010. If so, it will be downhill all the way.

teamsports

Sigh .. no, DEEP sigh .. oil now $142, and looks like $150 is a formaility.

Hurricane season coming, and unrest anywhere, will take this higher .. hard to know where the shorts can hide ..