| | #1 (permalink) |
| Silver Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: stafford, ingurland Age: 39
Posts: 7
| I have spent some years developing a strategy / system, and seeing Maria's thread, last year gave me impetus. I, too, have a laying system, which against data going back 10 years DOES work. It is simple, like Maria's and uses a ratchet. I will start with a £300 bank, and lay up to 80% of the bank per day on my selections. Number of selections varies between 2 and 20, with an average of 6-10 per day. I divide 80% of my bank and lay to ' pay out ' this amount on each selection, on betfair. This will ratchet until my bank is less than 80% of starting bank. Example : £300 bank, gives £240 = 80%. 8 selections laid to 'pay out' £30 each. When the bank increases at the end of the day, so does tthe following day's bank & 80% & ratchet limit.
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| | #2 (permalink) |
| Silver Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: stafford, ingurland Age: 39
Posts: 7
| 12.20 Morning Farewell at £5.71 @ 8.4 12.50 KRUGUYROVA at £16.00 @ 3.0 1.20 Merlin's Magic at £14.11 @ 3.4 1.55 The Apprentice at £11.43 @ 4.2 2.55 Mondial Jack at £5.21 @ 9.2 So, that's £240 to be laid ('to pay out') over 5 selections. I will keep a running tab at the end of each day.
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| | #3 (permalink) |
| Justified Ancient of Mummu (Administrator) Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Lilliput Age: 25
Posts: 28,322
| Are you the original getters from Betfair circa 2002 ? If so I can find a place for you in Gold. Where have you been living these last few years ? URW aka the_mgt. |
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| | #4 (permalink) |
| Sir Realist Join Date: Jul 2004 Age: 28
Posts: 8,003
| getters, If you make a profit in the long run it will have very little to do with whatever staking system you've cooked up there and a whole lot more to do with how you've made the selections of the horses to lay and why they are value lays. |
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| | #6 (permalink) |
| Justified Ancient of Mummu (Administrator) Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Lilliput Age: 25
Posts: 28,322
| Correct,getters. Up in Gold are the elite. As you were the very first person to respond to one of my posts on BF I will have a word with 36 and get you promotion if that is what you desire. |
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| | #7 (permalink) |
| Silver Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: stafford, ingurland Age: 39
Posts: 7
| Well, good afternoon, URW! PLeased to meet up again. Gold sounds good. Have a word & see what comes of it! Not sure if you saw or even remember my posts around the time of the National, but I DID 'retire' from Betfair then, for pastures new (which HAVE been very fruitful), but still maintained mostly a PASSING interest in all things gambling. as we do. Hence the 'new' system. Still at work 'full time' but am keen to post as frequently as possible & see how this system goes & is viewed. Regards
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| | #8 (permalink) |
| Silver Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: stafford, ingurland Age: 39
Posts: 7
| Patrickstar In essence, you are correct in that ALL successful betting requires 'value'. Alongside value, however, a good system needs a fair staking plan, to avoid disaster whilst giving a reasonable rate of return. It also needs to be a simple staking plan for much the same reasons.
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| | #9 (permalink) |
| Justified Ancient of Mummu (Administrator) Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Lilliput Age: 25
Posts: 28,322
| Expect an email in the next 24,getters.You have waited 5 years,another day won't hurt. My first jousts with you were when you laid me 990 about all the runners that couldn't win the 2002 Premiership. |
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| | #10 (permalink) | |
| Sir Realist Join Date: Jul 2004 Age: 28
Posts: 8,003
| Quote:
But in terms of the bigger picture, the goal - the 'hard part' if you will - is to find a way to consistently identify value. Do that and 90% of the battle is won, and i reckon effort and attention should be directed in proportion to that. A staking system is almost an afterthought - something that it is important only to not get horribly wrong, rather than to have to get exquisitely right. Far too many people (I'm not directing this at you personally) think that a mere staking plan can somehow pull a system up by it's own bootstraps and turn individually unprofitable bets in to an overall profitable strategy. You said you were keen to see how this system is viewed - well for now it is hard to say as you've only told us about 5% of how it works (the staking plan). If you want more opinion then you will have to elaborate on how the selections are made. Horse racing is not my specialist subject but I imagine there will be plenty others here happy to offer their more expert view on it. | |
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| | #11 (permalink) |
| Silver Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: stafford, ingurland Age: 39
Posts: 7
| Great start to 'the system' - lol. 2 losers. Nett loss after 5% commission on the 3 winners is : £41 Current bank £259 Hence, tomorrow, I lay at £240 nett bank (ratchet)
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| | #12 (permalink) |
| Silver Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: stafford, ingurland Age: 39
Posts: 7
| Day two Selections. £240 nett bank. 10 selections. lay to lose £24 Newbury 12.30 Kinscape at 9.0 1.0 Burren Legend at 8.0 2.05 Count Crist at 6.8 3.1 King Harald at 6 Bangor 12.2 Cornish Jester at 8.6 12.5 Supreme Cara at 9.0 3.0 Dark Society at 7.6 Lingfield 12.4 Barry Island at 8.4 1.1 Forsyte Saga at 5.3 3.2 Mutamaasek at 2.7
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| | #13 (permalink) |
| Gold Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Twickenham Age: 34
Posts: 4,213
| I have a huge problem with my staking plans. What generally happens is I bet too little on winning bets, and far too much on losing bets. Has anyone any tips on how to best avoid this problem?
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