thegreat

isnt it then just automated gambling ?

are you not taking a short price that no goal is scored within that 5 min timescale ?

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I'm a working man from Lancashire

And I want a Chippy Tea !!!!

JBT73

Thats true - but even with most sports arbitrage, there is a point when you are opening one bet and are subject to having the potential of change - I used to do arbs on most sports manually, but was caught out by changing odds many times - to me, this is just the risk

.....and to be fair to my mate - If he had found something that was risk free - then I would be in the dark and he would be driving a Bentley

keyser soze

what happens to the other 75%.

if you back 1-0 at 1.82 and a goal is scored by the leading team going to 2-0, so you back the outright win to get your stake back. to do this you are backing at 1.01, so to get £10 back you are staking £1000. is this correct?

if the 1-0 becomes 1-1 which team does the macro back to get the stake back, or does it back the draw.

oh, and heaven forbid there are two goals after the initial bet, does it then back the 2nd possible outcome to cover the cost of the initial bet and the cost of the 2nd bet.

so lets say that £10 at 1.82 and a goal to make it 1-1 makes the system back a draw at 1.2 for £200 in the 89th min. but team A score so we need now to recoup £210 at 1.01 are we betting £21000 to get this stake back.

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

JBT73

If that were the case, you would incur some loss, but for all the testing, that has been approx 30-40% of the original stake, It would not try to recover your original stake - as that is asking for trouble
The amount you gamble with is defined right at the beginning and you will not lose anymore than that

Anybody that tells you they have a risk free system is either not gambling or bullsh*tting - this is not risk free - it is low risk

JBT73

Sorry, the other 75% would be ignored - there is a mraket liquidity check or you simply get nothing if both parts of the macro ran and then the score changed

keyser soze

how about your friend, ups the stakes from my theoretical £10 to £100.

that way he can win............

4 weekends + (4 x 10 midweek games) = 192 *19.00 a month = 3648 quid for a month and buy a bentley by Crimbo

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

JBT73

The stake will not go above what you placed initially

You bet 10, that is the maximum you will lose

keyser soze

20 games it succesfully wins £1.90. if 16 games have a goal between the 1.82 and the end of the game you can assume that maybe 6 will happen before 1.62 and the other 10 will happen after.

so we have.............

20 x 1.90 = £38
10 x 0.00 = £0 where the score changes after the match of both bets.

so at this point, on the 6 where a goal is scored after 1.82 but before 1.62 do we then stake what to get our tenner back, remembering here that the most ever at risk is £10

if the odds on the current match result are around 1.07 what exactly are we staking

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

thegreat

thats a large band seeing as you can only win a max of 20% of your stake.

So you break even in games where a goal occurs after you have layed and lose when a goal is scored in the time frame.

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I'm a working man from Lancashire

And I want a Chippy Tea !!!!

JBT73

The best advice is for you to try it - it will cost no more than a tenner for your bets on BF on a few games for a couple of quid - the software is free for two weeks

I have been using it and I am happy with the returns so far - they wont buy me a Bentley, thats for sure, but it has been a nice little side line in my BF account.

I'll also have to sign off at this point - I am currently at work and if they do an internet check - they will find I have been on here ages and get me out quicker than you can say - "Is it or is it not arbitrage?"

Thanks for the articulate arguments - and I wish you good day and good betting

keyser soze

but you said earlier you had set it up to cover all 98 games this weekend at work and the pdf says that you have to be logged on to betfair the whole time.

so surely your work would catch you out on your computer being on all weekend on Betfair when you are round yer mates house.

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"Napoleon was advancing unopposed through the low countries until his army was engaged by Team GB."

thegreat

Keyser he works with his mate

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I'm a working man from Lancashire

And I want a Chippy Tea !!!!

JBT73

In the words of Vic Reeves "You wouldn't let lie"

The machines at work are CAD workstations and it is important they are not turned off (the thermal cycles upset the EEPROM's) - we also have a T1 data cable that is connected to the Internet at all times - the programme needs you to be login into the BF account but you don't need to be on the website

Hence it is perfect and will save my electricity bill

JBT73

You boys are soooooo skeptical

teamsports

Ok, out of interest, I downloaded the arbiter.

Its got litle documentation, but I sorta figured how to set it up, so it knows
which races to have a go at.

Are u now expecting users, to just let it go ? without any idea what the macros/filters are doing ?

There is no documentation - so, I suppose I could run the thing, on a test account, and see what it does - but, if I am gonna let it play with real money, i want to know the basis for its staking etc.

patrickstar

stop diverting this thread from it's true purpose.

PING PONG WHILST DRUNK! where can i play?

thegreat

is there an online ping pong game to get some practice in

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I'm a working man from Lancashire

And I want a Chippy Tea !!!!

JBT73

Hello TheGreat.....


Thanks for giving it a least a viewing, and sorry for the delay in getting back.

ScoreAssist was discussed Ad nauseum, so I assume that you are refering to FaveAssist

Basically, if you use FaveAssist - the criteria it takes is an algorithm based on Race Type, no of Runners, distance etc etc ...

The stake allocated at the beginning is the most that will be lost, typically around between a half and 2/3 of races are filtered out. Those that are selected will be a flat stake based on your initial input. I select all the races for smaller stakes than picking a select few and let the macro do its stuff.

If you had started this last thurday when FA was released with 2 GBP bets then your account would be 50GBP better off - not a bad amount based on 2 bets I am sure you will agree.

I hope this makes sense and hope you have a good luck with your betting

thegreat

not sure who you are referring to but I havent downloaded it or accessed it

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I'm a working man from Lancashire

And I want a Chippy Tea !!!!

teamsports

He probably confused me wiv u ...

FWIW, I traded it with 10 quid stakes .. it managed to lose 75 quid, in about 20 races, and I sort of lost interest.

I think it needs some work.