Hi there,

I'm a sports trader by trade but the reason I've joined this fourm is so I can document my horse laying system selections that I'm testing. :)

I'm also testing a greyhound laying system (93% SR) and a progressive horse backing system (52% Strike Rate) but I will document the testing for these another time.

Anyway, rules for the horse racing system are:

1) Min Price 3.0- Max Price 10.0

2) No Bet if Selected horse is Favourite and OVER 5.0 at the off

3) Min 6 RUNNERS.

4) LAY THE OUTSIDER IF MORE THAN ONE QUALIFIES (Like in the 4:20).


Today's Selections are:

Dance The Star 2:30 Lingfield - WON (BF 6.31) -5.31 Points
Malapropism 3:20 Catterick +0.95
Pride Of Kings 3:50 Catterick - WON (BF 7.76) -6.76 Points
Jun Fan 4:20 Catterick +0.95
Quicks The Word 4:20 Catterick - NB
Stargazer Jim 6:05 Sandown +0.95
Tubby Isaacs 8:15 Sandown - NB
Loveinanelevator 8:25 Leicester +0.95
Desert Chill 8:25 Leicester - NB
Callisto Moon 8:45 Sandown +0.95


I will proof all results based on Betfair SP prices.

Good Luck for anyone who wants to follow.

I'm about 16 points up in the last 2 weeks but I recommend you only paper trade these until i've established a few more weeks of results

Cheers

Fordy

Hi Fordy. Can you run us through why you think such a betting system would work, and what the reasons for each rule are? Do you know the performance of such a system over the past x years?

At what level of profit or loss will you be confident that the system works or not?

1) Min Price 3.0- Max Price 10.0

Why?

What do you do if you find what looks like a great value lay below 3.0 or above 10.0? Just ignore it?


2) No Bet if Selected horse is Favourite and OVER 5.0 at the off

Why?
What if you make him a 20/1 shot?


3) Min 6 RUNNERS.

Why?


4) LAY THE OUTSIDER IF MORE THAN ONE QUALIFIES (Like in the 4:20).

Why not lay both?



I'm about 16 points up in the last 2 weeks but I recommend you only paper trade these until i've established a few more weeks of results


Good thinking. Just off to Rymans to get myself an A4 pad. Back in about half an hour.

sorry, cross posted with HNE.. doing all those quotes is time consuming!

So basically yeah - what he said.

What have I done :shock:

I ignored your advice to paper trade and went large on your selections this afternoon - two of your (my) lays WON at 9/2 and 6/1.

This is not good - do you have a staking plan to accompany your selections?

Hi Fordy. Can you run us through why you think such a betting system would work, and what the reasons for each rule are? Do you know the performance of such a system over the past x years?

At what level of profit or loss will you be confident that the system works or not?

Hi there,

I only devised the system this month so it doesn't have any past performance and filters are constantly being tweaked until I get the right mix.

I'm only testing guys. I'm looking for value lays based on form/chances of winning. Best staking plan for something like this is Lay 1-4 but we will see.

I would give you all the filters I use but it wouldn't be my system then will it? Give me a month and we will see profit I promise. I'm not one to give up on these sort of things and I am expecting at least 20 points a month.

I expected a rubbish start as it always happens when I start to document stuff to the public :wink:

Cheers

Fordy

Why?

What do you do if you find what looks like a great value lay below 3.0 or above 10.0? Just ignore it?


Why?
What if you make him a 20/1 shot?



Why?



Why not lay both?




Good thinking. Just off to Rymans to get myself an A4 pad. Back in about half an hour.

Questions, Questions, Questions. :!:

OK, here we go.

1) Min Price 3.0- Max Price 10.0

This is not a lay a fav system. If a horse is under 2/1 then it has the market backing and obviously has a strong chance of winning (excluding maidens where I always lay the favourite :wink:) . I've noticed some of the selections that I pick are forecasted around 6 to 7/1 but near the off they seem to drift to 13's and 14's. If one of them won (with a forecasted chance of 6/1) then -13 level points is a big hit on the P&L. Having a max price of 10.0 limits these chances.

I am not looking for a weak favourites nor outsiders but horses that are reasonably priced with only a small/little chance of winning (on paper).

2) No Bet if Selected horse is Favourite and OVER 5.0 at the off

You will be suprised to see how many clear favourites win that are over 4/1, especially in quality grade 1/2 races. If he was a 20/1 shot if wouldn't be favourite and would also not qualify in the 3.0-10.0 price ruling.

3) Min 6 RUNNERS.

This is mainly for the winter season/bad weather days when horses pull out. If I issued tips to you guys and went out for the day and in the meantime 2-3 horses pulled out which changes the dynamics of a race then the initial lay selction is in question.

4) LAY THE OUTSIDER IF MORE THAN ONE QUALIFIES (Like in the 4:20).

I dont suggest to lay both because I've selected two horse in a race which i feel have an equal chance of winning. Having this rule lets the market decide which horse has a better chance to win and quite often the market gets it right, believe me.


I hope this answers your query, its not been the best start but investing in horses is not an overnight thing.

Cheers

Fordy

this is going to run and run :?:lol:

Not really, proof will be in the pudding and all that.

Only the 1st day my friend!! :wink:

I expected a rubbish start as it always happens when I start to document stuff to the public...

Couldn't you have told us this before posting today's selections?

Couldn't you have told us this before posting today's selections?

Like I mentioned in the 1st post. I recommend you only paper trade these until i've established a few more weeks of results.

The statement that when results go wrong when you go public, is only a myth but seems to happen from time to time.

The joys of a freebie forum!! :D

Not really, proof will be in the pudding and all that.

Only the 1st day my friend!! :wink:

no the reason i say it will run and run is because the post above my comment is full of things that others on here will tear to shreds.

i especially loved "I dont suggest to lay both because I've selected two horse in a race which i feel have an equal chance of winning. Having this rule lets the market decide which horse has a better chance to win and quite often the market gets it right, believe me."

Do you think the market does not give an indication of who's going to win then? I sports trade prices for a living and see the patterns happen all to often.

Some of the most profitable backing systems are based on "Following the Money" so to speak:question:

What is your opinion on this? Constructive comments always appreciated :D

sports trading for a living and "testing a laying system with the following stringent rules" dont really sit together well

sports trading for a living and "testing a laying system with the following stringent rules" dont really sit together well

No, but what I'm trying to say is while trading you notice certain patterns when trading before the off on a daily basis. Late on steamers, steam for a reason, and more often or not seem to be more likely winners than last mintue drifters.

I'd rather lay a drifter before the off (within my price range) than a steamer, when on paper both horses have equal chance.

Again, constructive comments appreciated (I'm yet to have one!!)

Cheers

patrickstar gave you a few.

No, but what I'm trying to say is while trading you notice certain patterns when trading before the off on a daily basis. Late on steamers, steam for a reason, and more often or not seem to be more likely winners than last mintue drifters.

I'd rather lay a drifter before the off (within my price range) than a steamer, when on paper both horses have equal chance.

Again, constructive comments appreciated (I'm yet to have one!!)

Cheers


The 8:25pm Race tonight has just given me a good enough reason why the above is right. Both horse below have the same form and were priced the same throughout the day however desert chill steamed (a little) and loveinanelevator drifted.

Loveinanelevator 8:25 Leicester +0.95
Desert Chill 8:25 Leicester - NB

Like I say, the proof will be in the pudding :wink:

so 1 race decides the system is working

System working, send more money.

What time are you posting the ones that worked tomorrow?

Can you try and get them on before 11, because I have got to go out then.
Thanks

Like I say, the proof will be in the pudding :wink:

'the proof of the pudding is in the eating' is the original and more meaningful version of the cliche...

You will be suprised to see how many clear favourites win that are over 4/1, especially in quality grade 1/2 races. If he was a 20/1 shot if wouldn't be favourite and would also not qualify in the 3.0-10.0 price ruling.

to repeat the question, what if the market had the fav at 5/1 and you make him a 20/1 shot?

No, but what I'm trying to say is while trading you notice certain patterns when trading before the off on a daily basis. Late on steamers, steam for a reason, and more often or not seem to be more likely winners than last mintue drifters.

I'd rather lay a drifter before the off (within my price range) than a steamer, when on paper both horses have equal chance.

shoudn't the rule then be 'don't lay a steamer'?

what if the system says you should lay the 2nd fav 6/1 shot when there is a 2/1 fav, then the 6/1 shot starts shortening and at the off is 4/1 while the fav has lenthenged to 3/1?
By the rules of the sytem you'd still be laying a late on steamer against a drifter fav? Didn't the steamer steam for a reason?


sports trading for a living and "testing a laying system with the following stringent rules" dont really sit together well

quite...

The thread title 'Investor Form Lays' is the first clue that this is an attempt (albeit futile - you're on the wrong forum) to ultimately try to entice people to part with money.

The line early on in the first post "a progressive horse backing system" is the final nail in the coffin of credibility.


Fordy, for all I know you really can spot value lays in horse races. But if you can then why surround it with so much bollocks?

so 1 race decides the system is working

No m8, but it highlights why I have such a rule.

I'll try and get them posted before 11 if i can, but I only suggest paper trading until we get some confidence amongst you sceptics!

BTW - The Lay 1-4 Staking Plan would of recovered your earlier losses and made you a profit for today.

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Horse racing is not my specialist subject but I imagine there will be plenty others here happy to offer their more expert view on it.

Very well said PatrickStar. For someone who know's a lot, obviously knows nothing. 27yr old pro? Me thinks not.

Obviously testing a system and wanting feedback is a 'no' go on this forum which is a shame but nothing lost hey? I'll spend my nights critising others in the hope my life might one day, get as interesting as yours!! :lol:

Very well said PatrickStar. For someone who know's a lot, obviously knows nothing. 27yr old pro? Me thinks not.

Had my first ever bet when I was 21. Went full time shortly after I turned 25 and doing very well thank you.

I don't know much about horse racing but I can see right through poorly conceived ideas about betting 'systems' regardless of what sport they are based on.

Obviously testing a system and wanting feedback is a 'no' go on this forum which is a shame but nothing lost hey? I'll spend my nights critising others in the hope my life might one day, get as interesting as yours!! :lol:

As a rule I usually try to not get involved, consider yourself special.

You don't need to post on a forum to test a system. There's only two reasons you would: 1. you crave adulation, 2. you are trying to entice people into ultimately paying for the system.

As for wanting feedback, you've got some. I guess it just doesn't fit in to either of the above categories.

Had my first ever bet when I was 21.

Out of interest PS, do you remember what the bet was??

Stone Cold to win the 2001 Royal Rumble at 4/1 at Hills.

Actually - no I never did put that on and have regretted it ever since.:lol:

First bet was probably some mug football acca. First golf bet I would actually have been 22 and it was for a stake of around 20p e/w on I think Brett Quigley in the 2003 Greater Milwaukee Open.

Came in the places and I remember having a lengthy email back and forth with victor chandler about how I thought they'd incorrrectly settled it and short changed me to the tune of 14p or something.

No doubt they thought I was taking the piss but I genuinely wasn't!