The bulls were talking $100 a barrel, but its slipped back, over the last few
days, and is about to breach the support level of $90.

Anyone got a view, where to .. now.

I am short from $91.40, and was doing my coconuts .. when it hit $97 - but,
am feeling a bit better now. Anyone trading this ??

$100 per barrel is a self-fulfilling prophecy IMO, and will happen before year-end.

The way the WTI reacted around $90 looked ok yesterday. Having said that, I was expecting a larger bounce this morning (Z7 currently up 70 cents). Inventory data this afternoon should be interesting (a draw of 750k barrels expected).

The big question for me is where does it go post $100.

By the way, does anyone know a good system for roulette? :lol:

ive bought all of klove's and i am now selling them. i will accept payment in oil

Hate roulette, you cant get enuf on.

Back to the real casino .. the stock mkt -

I have spoken to 3 oil consultants this yr, who ll tell me costs of extraction are getting lower, there is more and more of the stuff being found, and demand isnt that great anyway. Yet the price keeps going up !!

Is it speculators ?

If a recession kills off demand, (which I think unlikely - especially in an election yr), oil might retreat to under $80 .. is it really likely, we can see $100 + for a sustained period ?

I recall the head of BP, on Bloomberg some 4 mths ago, saying he thght oil would be $60 - maybe hes a total twat - but, how can they all be so wrong ?

Some ramblings

End users have a greater appetite of light sweet crude than they do for the lower quality OPEC output - which means that increased production (particularly from Saudi) is not having the desired market impact.

Is it speculators? At least part of the move is obviously speculative.

The lower dollar will support the market to an extent.

The strength of Chinese demand softens the potential damage from a US recession.

The now former head of BP Lord John Browne is certainly not a twat (nor is he rumoured to be particularly fond of them).

WTI for December 2015 delivery settled last night just shy of $82.

Keyser - how big is your car?

It appears to me that the recent rise and falls of the oil price have followed the movements of the USD.

Has that always been the case or is it a new phenomenon?

It appears to me that the recent rise and falls of the oil price have followed the movements of the USD.

Has that always been the case or is it a new phenomenon?

There's always been a high (negative) correlation.

How robust is this market?

Big build in inventories (up 2.81m barrels vs expectation of a 750k barrel draw) and Jan WTI is now trading above the pre-data release price.

my son has built a website for an oil price analyst, check it out for free ENERPY LTD: Oil Market Consultancy (http://www.enerpyltd.com/index.php)

Sorry - Novice question

The Cl Nymex Dec contract stopped trading last week, as the Dec contract stops trading on Nov 16.

When does the official price for the Dec contract get posted ?

Do u know a good site, to find all the monthy close prices ?

Thks

The final settlement price is the official NYMEX settlement on the sixth business day before the the twenty-fifth calender day of the month preceding the specified contract month. For the F8 contract this equates to December 18.

The official final settlement for CLZ7 was 95.10.

I don't know of a website for getting historical settlement prices, I have access to Bloomberg / CQG in the office.

New $99.29 high for CLF8 today (although back down to $97.41 currently)

Yeah, luckily, reduced my exposure (a little), but would like to see it pop above $100, so I can sell some more.

It doesnt make too much sense to me .. US economy expected to slow down, but oil keeps going up. Sure, dollar weakness is a part of it, but,
am happy to be a seller at thee levels, and take my lumps if it goes pear.

Yeah, luckily, reduced my exposure (a little), but would like to see it pop above $100, so I can sell some more.

It doesnt make too much sense to me .. US economy expected to slow down, but oil keeps going up. Sure, dollar weakness is a part of it, but,
am happy to be a seller at thee levels, and take my lumps if it goes pear.

I'm sure you have already considered this ts, but China's energy usage will soon outstrip the USA's

Fundamental arguments for high oil price:

>Rising demand from developing coutries (china, india..).
>Geo-political tensions in the middle east (iran).
>Falling capacity or inability to cost-effectively increase production - ('peak oil').
>Weak dollar - which pushes the price (when measured in dollars) up by default, and also carries a risk of destablising the world economy - which could in turn impact oil prices (if the current relatively harmonious trade relations break down).

On top of that you apparently have a lot of speculation in the market and the seemingly relentless push (self fullfilling prophecy as it was put earlier) to the psychologically significant $100/barrel mark.

I think the key question is: What proportion of the price is due to speculation?
And the answer will probably come shortly after it hits $100, as you'd probably expect a pull back proportional to the level of speculation at that point if there was nothing else holding it up.. probably including an over-reaction on any downward movement.

Of course it could go to $100 and stick there, or shoot on up to $150 in no time. I really have no idea! and as such will not be betting on it!


My predicition (just for fun):
$100 reached before christmas (maybe this week??).
Short term pull back to about $80-$85.

Mid to long term who knows.. Depends on how bad the US recession is and how much it impacts on the rest of the world. Also them not doing anything rash in Iran..

Unless you have a major slowdown in China and other developing countries (brought about by US contagion) then I can see $150/barrel within a year maybe, as the dollar continues to devalue relative to the asian/arab currencies.

Down $3.80 yesterday
Up $3.50 today (so far)

$90 looks a very important support line .. if it manages to break 90.40, I think
there is a good chance, the way to $85 is wide open.

Currently 91.50 .. some interesting fights ahead.

Support broken

$89.48 currently

" Depends on how bad the US recession is and how much it impacts on the rest of the world."

What recession?--we've had the longest expansion in history of U.S. which has came despite a trillion+ dollar hit to economy on 911-the greatest natural disaster (Katrina) so while I expect economy can't run at full tilt and will taper off I certainly wouldn't write in recession even with sub prime fiasco--my reasoning is corp earnings still there as well as record low unemployment. I expect to escape a recession up till late 08 at least. Then will have to reconsider depending on elections.

With that being said-- reduced U.S. holding to lowest ever in 06--preferring Emerging Markets-Canada and European stocks.

What recession?--we've had the longest expansion in history of U.S. which has came despite a trillion+ dollar hit to economy on 911-the greatest natural disaster (Katrina) so while I expect economy can't run at full tilt and will taper off I certainly wouldn't write in recession even with sub prime fiasco--my reasoning is corp earnings still there as well as record low unemployment. I expect to escape a recession up till late 08 at least. Then will have to reconsider depending on elections.


Yes, a recession in the US is of course not a foregone conclusion, although an increasing number of forecasts seem to be stating an ever increasing chance of one.
As you say, the longest expansion in history - so a recession is certainly 'due', if not seriously overdue...

The election does muddy the waters a bit but I'll stick with a recession in 2008 if you want a bet (just for fun:wink:).. see you back here late next year for the apportioning of bragging rights :lol:

Would agree with you that one is due my friend--just hope its as shortlived as last and same expansion follows. Believe your thread title on oil holds the key.I find it almost unbelievable that global economies have boomed with price of oil this year--it defies logic. South Korean market will be worth a look in 08 if there is no world wide pullback IMO. New pres there is very pro business.

Think I saw Warren Buffet was talking about S Korea, so you're probably on to something there!

Just seems kind of risky to me (much like everything does!), in the short term anyway.

US manufacturing figures out today much poorer than expected - tips the scales a bit further to recession..

Oil nearing $100 again.. and gold rocketing to a new all time high.

Stagflation?

Oil hits 100 bucks.

So will we see a pull back now?

A brief history of oil prices. Approximate prices are for one barrel of crude oil on world markets, in 2006 U.S. dollars. During the past five years, total global consumption has totalled about 84 million barrels per day.

Mid-19th century: Modern oil era begins with wells in northwest Pennsylvania.

1861 - 1867: Wild price fluctuations in fragmented market, with prices ranging between 10 cents and $10.

1870: John D. Rockefeller and partners create Standard Oil Co., which achieves virtual monopoly over U.S. oil production by 1878.

1901: The Spindletop well in Texas, the world's biggest gusher, expands industry outside the U.S. Northeast, but production gluts market, and depresses prices, which had been about $1 a barrel.

1911: U.S. Supreme Court declares Standard Oil to be an "unreasonable" monopoly and orders it broken up into 34 independent companies. Average price $15-$20.

1908 - 1920: Mass production of Ford's Model T automobile creates rising demand for gasoline and subsequent higher oil prices, with a peak of about $30 in 1920.

1930s: Worldwide Great Depression depresses gasoline demand and oil glut reduces price to about $12.

1933: Texas' dominance over oil production enables the Texas Railroad Commission, the energy regulator in the U.S. southern states, to stabilize prices for decades.

1939 - 1945: Second World War brings U.S. government price controls, with oil prices at about $15.

1956: Britain, France and Israel attack Egypt in a bid to reverse its nationalization of the Suez Canal, the main source of supply of oil for Britain and France. Prices hit $19.

1960 - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) formed by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, and quickly dominates the world oil market, producing greatly increased prices of about $16.

1973 - 1976: Price rises to as high as $46 after OPEC slaps oil embargo against the United States, its allies in Western Europe and Japan, which had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt in the Yom Kippur War. OPEC also cuts production to maintain high prices.

1978: Revolution sweeps the Shah of Iran from power and installs a radical Islamic government in the major oil producer. Prices rise to $42.

1980-91: OPEC's power and oil prices decline in the face of conservation efforts in Western countries.

1980: Iraq invades revolution-weakened Iran. $86.

1982: U.S. imposes price controls on domestic oil. $68.

1986: Oil demand and price drops to as low as $13 after global economic recession batters demand for oil. Plunging prices depress Alberta's oilpatch, which was still reeling from the impact of the National Energy Program imposed by the Liberal government of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau.

1990: The United States and allies launch the Gulf War to expel Iraqi invaders from Kuwait. $28

1998 - 1999: A flooded market and an economic crisis in Asia knocks prices down to a 50-year low of about $15, until OPEC cuts its production, sparking another price increase.

2000 - Series of OPEC quota cuts leads to higher oil prices. $21.

2001 - Prices rise to about $26 following Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

2003 - U.S. invasion of Iraq sparks a continuing upward trend in oil prices, to an average $32 in 2004 and $60 in 2006.

2007 - Rose to more than $98 before settling back into the low to mid-90s because of worries that a U.S. recession would depress demand.

Jan. 2, 2008 - Prices rise above US$100 a barrel for the first time ever, reaching that milestone amid an unshakeable view that global demand for oil and petroleum products, especially from fast-growing China and India, will continue to outstrip supplies.

Oil hits 100 bucks.

So will we see a pull back now?

$120 more likely than $80 IMO

A brief history of oil prices. Approximate prices are for one barrel of crude oil on world markets, in 2006 U.S. dollars. ...
1978: Revolution sweeps the Shah of Iran from power and installs a radical Islamic government in the major oil producer. Prices rise to $42.

1980-91: OPEC's power and oil prices decline in the face of conservation efforts in Western countries.

1980: Iraq invades revolution-weakened Iran. $86.

1982: U.S. imposes price controls on domestic oil. $68.

1986: Oil demand and price drops to as low as $13 after global economic recession batters demand for oil. Plunging prices depress Alberta's oilpatch, which was still reeling from the impact of the National Energy Program imposed by the Liberal government of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau.

1990: The United States and allies launch the Gulf War to expel Iraqi invaders from Kuwait. $28

1998 - 1999: A flooded market and an economic crisis in Asia knocks prices down to a 50-year low of about $15, until OPEC cuts its production, sparking another price increase.

2000 - Series of OPEC quota cuts leads to higher oil prices. $21.

2001 - Prices rise to about $26 following Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

2003 - U.S. invasion of Iraq sparks a continuing upward trend in oil prices, to an average $32 in 2004 and $60 in 2006.

2007 - Rose to more than $98 before settling back into the low to mid-90s because of worries that a U.S. recession would depress demand.

Jan. 2, 2008 - Prices rise above US$100 a barrel for the first time ever, reaching that milestone amid an unshakeable view that global demand for oil and petroleum products, especially from fast-growing China and India, will continue to outstrip supplies.

Different sources give different prices, typically averaged, but I believe light sweet crude oil traded as high as $39.50 in December 1979, which would be about $110 today adjusting for inflation. The current bull market in crude is much more sustained than previous spikes in 1979 and 1990 though. I wonder when Americans will end their love affair with trucks as family cars.

Dun my bollox :frown:

Sorry to hear that. Bollox are over-rated anyway. Really.

$120 more likely than $80 IMO


through $125 now for both Nymex Light Sweet and Brent

5 years after the climactic start of the Iraq War in 2003

In dollar terms oil has risen from. $38 to $125 - a rise of 229%.
In sterling terms it has risen from £24 to £ 64 - a rise of 168%.
In euro terms ....it has risen from €38 to € 81 - a rise of 113%.

By contrast over the same period gold rose from $360 per ounce to $880 - a rise of 144% in dollar terms.

Food prices have shot up in no less a place than New York City.
Oh Teamsports, why ever did you sidetrack yourself from the horse world you know, to trade in this brown liquid? It was not only the rise of oil, it was the fall of the mighty dollar.

I GOT BORED .. now, wish I had found a good book.

I have manfully been against, blowing stops at $111, $118, $124.

Now, it may be a time to pause .. but, can see myself going back in and selling, next week.

Its getting personal ...

BBC NEWS | Business | Supply fears push oil beyond $126 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7391576.stm)


Crude oil prices have hit yet another all-time high in New York, tipping beyond $126 a barrel.

Driven by surging demand and continuing supply fears, US light crude hit $126.20 in afternoon trade in New York, before falling to $124.78 a barrel.
Meanwhile, London's Brent crude also hit a fresh high of $125.68, before later falling below $125.
A report by Goldman Sachs has said the price of crude oil could reach $200 a barrel in as little as six months.
Despite the continuing rises in oil prices, producers group Opec reiterated its view on Thursday that supplies were adequate for the time being.
However, it has also said that $200 a barrel was a possibility in the future.

No doubt Sheikh Mo is laughing, and Russian leaders are laughing. What is it to them that the third world is now up in riot over skyrocketing food prices? In New York City, no less, food prices doubled in one month.

The following is but a sample list of widespread asset devaluation writedowns made by banks since 2007 as they desperately seek financial reinforcement from governments and shareholders.

£12 billion - Citigroup (9,000 job cuts)
£12 billion - Merrill Lynch (4,000 job cuts)
£ 9 billion - UBS (5,500 job cuts)
£ 8 billion - HSBC
£ 7 billion - RBS (£12 billion rights issue)
£ 3 billion - Barclays
£ 3 billion - HBOS (£4 billion rights issue, share price down 42% in past year)
£ 2 billion - Credit Suisse
£ 2 billion - Deutsche Bank

Supersmart UBS's CEO has been given the bullet, possibly he allowed himself to get personal while chasing losses. There is an epidemic of disasters right now. But a time will come, to get even without getting mad.

Heard some interesting stuff on Five live, about number of cars in GB.

Apparently, there are now 27 odd million, up 5 million in the last 3 yrs, so, demand can hardly be slowing. What that does for our roads .. can't be good - mabe we should e looking at buyin road mantenance companies.

BBC NEWS | Business | Oil above $127 for the first time (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7404856.stm)


Quote:
Oil prices have hit a record high above $127 a barrel on speculation that China will need to import more fuel, stretching global supplies.

With more energy needed to rebuild areas devastated by the earthquake earlier this week, US light sweet crude jumped to $127.43 a barrel.
Prices were also supported by Goldman Sachs forecasting that oil would reach $141 a barrel later this year.

London Brent crude also climbed, touching $125.82 a barrel.
"Tight supply conditions continue to be the primary catalyst for higher crude prices," Goldman Sachs analysts said.

Pressure on Opec
Prices have risen by about 25% since the beginning of the year, lifted by geopolitical worries and the weakening US dollar, which makes oil cheaper for foreign buyers.

At the same time demand from fast-growing Asian economies, notably China, has exacerbated price pressures.

Sir Richard Branson: $200 oil on way - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/18/cnbranson118.xml)


Sir Richard Branson fears global oil prices will hit $200 per barrel by 2010, putting the future of a number of underperforming airlines in doubt.

The founder of Virgin Group and president of Virgin Atlantic - who was in Nairobi to promote Nigeria's tourism market following political unrest after last year's elections - said airlines operating older, less fuel-efficient fleets, such as United Airlines and American Airlines, could be forced into administration as a result of the relentless rise in oil prices.

Echoing comments last week by Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways, Branson said: "Oil prices will continue to rise due to a combination of global demand and falling reserves. The strong airlines will survive, but one or more major US carriers will go out of business this year."

The sentiment was echoed by the aviation analyst Chris Avery, of JP Morgan, who calculates that most of the major European carriers face huge increases to their fuel bills as their hedging positions run out. Avery said BA will have to pay an extra £1bn in fuel costs this year, while Lufthansa will have to find an extra €2bn (£1.6bn) by 2009. Virgin Atlantic's fuel bill is 70pc hedged over the next year.

Avery said: "Most of the big European carriers, such as BA, Air France, Lufthansa, EasyJet, Ryanair and BMI, are relatively well capitalised, but at $120 per barrel you would have to ask questions about a lot of airlines, especially the American ones."

Responding to the possibility of a US airline going into administration, Branson said that the new Open Skies environment operating on the transatlantic market could make it harder for the US government to offer financial support to airlines.

T. Boone Pickens on CNBC right now saying we'll see $150 a barrel this year.

Says there is no speculation and it's purely supply and demand - the world can only produce 85M barrels a day and it uses 87M.

Also condeming the US's energy policies - currently sending $600Bn a year around the world to buy oil. Bush&co are wasting their time trying to get the Saudis etc to increase production to try to get the price down. It's not that they won't, it's that they can't. And whatever slack the US can create by reducing its own demand is instantly snapped up by China.

another day another new record.. $132

Four decades ago astronomer Fred Hoyle wrote that any civilisation on any planet which discovers fossil fuel and relies on it, must make the technological transition to alternative energy sources (such as nuclear electricity) before fossil fuels run out.

Homo sapiens on planet earth have made the technology leap but not the political leap. Some experts say the tipping point where new oil discoveries are swamped by new oil demands, will arrive as early as year 2010. If so, it will be downhill all the way.

Sigh .. no, DEEP sigh .. oil now $142, and looks like $150 is a formaility.

Hurricane season coming, and unrest anywhere, will take this higher .. hard to know where the shorts can hide ..

teamsports, surely you did get out after all the Cassandra soothsaying? None other than Richard Branson has said oil is headed for $200, and who is more moderate and modest than Richard?

It is not only oil rising, it is the dollar sinking. With the Fed printing dollars like confetti, why wouldn't the dollar sink?

Oh for the enchanted days when oil was $90.40 a barrel! http://www.bettingforum.co.uk/images/icons/icon10.gif http://www.bettingforum.co.uk/images/icons/icon10.gif

A friend of mine is an oil options broker... they have traded, at 20c, a December $300 call.

I haven't seen anything in the media recently about Iran attacking Israel. The current story seems to be about US Defense "sources" saying an Israeli attack on Iran is imminent.

If so, the oil bears will be instantly buried --
along with any chance to avoid worldwide Recession if not Depression.

A friend of mine is an oil options broker... they have traded, at 20c, a December $300 call.

Settled at 36c last night :shock:

If Obama makes it to the White House he will be there in January. Meanwhile there are six months left for a lame duck President. Could desperate countries try something while George Bush is still around?

If so, the oil bears will be instantly buried --
along with any chance to avoid worldwide Recession if not Depression.

News sites full of official denials now. I don't think Bush would approve an attack unless he has information that Iran's nuclear programme is far far more advanced than has been generally reported, and I don't think Israel would attack without US approval.

News sites full of official denials now. I don't think Bush would approve an attack unless he has information that Iran's nuclear programme is far far more advanced than has been generally reported, and I don't think Israel would attack without US approval.

The whole episode is so simple - just compare it to your first day at school...a bit scarey....meet a friend... meet a girlfriend....lose interest in certain things....get older...want a challenge....become president of the Student Union....a bit scarey....meet a friend... meet a girlfiend....lose interest in certain things....get older...want a challenge....become president of the USA..........

Thread started 13/11/07 .. maybe a bad day, to start a thread.

Oil now back below $90, after going to the moon (and costing me packets).

Wonder how the oil producers now feel ? Do we blame them ? Is, or was it the hedge fund speculators, who took control of the mkt.

Presumably, the oil revenue now to the middle east, has severely been curtailed, and the demand destruction may hurt revenues for the next few yrs. I suppose they can just leave it in the ground, and hope the electric car, doesnt take hold.

Where to from here .. dunno .. presumably it will fall to below $80, but woudnt want to bet (much) on it.

A lot of analysts on bloomberg in the last fully expect it to fly upwards sooner or later... others believe that will be something of a signal that the equity capituation has occured..

I don't think that $75 will get breached and feel that we may see a bounce from these levels ($88ish) to something above $100 but as a client told me earlier "bottom-pickers become cotton-pickers" :shock:

Maybe the US can't afford to fill the SPR anymore :frown: