Hello, another refugee from Betfairland.

Thanks to blink for givng me the map to find this place. I hope that this forum will be able to provide mutual appreciation and benefits for both myself and the other members.

My main area of expertise is Big Brother and the Celebrity versions and have posted rather prolifically at "the other place" on their special forum for two or three years now. My main day to day activity is a mixture of trading and more traditional betting on horse racing, although I normally limit myself to jumps meetings. I also bet on football, although it is usually for small stakes in order to give me an added interest in watching the match.

I don't give tips, I give opinions and usually explain how I arrived at those opinions in some depth. Hopefully, this leads to discussion and interchange of views which might result in me changing my opinions or might lead to the reader of the post adjusting theirs. That, in my opinion, is what a good forum should be about.

I am also well known for putting forward some pretty wacky theories, especially where Big Brother is concerned. BB is well known for their twists and their ability to turn events and edits around to suit their own ends and it sometimes pays to think outside of the box. They don't often come off, but you don't need more than one to come off at high odds during a series to make it worthwhile.

I understand the reasons for a probationary period in the Bronze section, because you obviously want to keep out the kind of idiots that have made my previous home into a place where 90% of the threads are pure drivel. However, I am the sort of person who works better when bouncing my ideas off of others and having others bounce their ideas off of me. So hopefully I won't be stuck in the wilderness for too long.

I look forward to getting to know the members, especially those who contribute to the Big Brother threads, better and wish you all a profitable Big Brother 7.

well budgiebird - whats your reckoning on this wednesday's double edition - and how low is the a/o price gonna go - what price a/o at 9.00am thursday morning?

Hello fte,

Rumours abound about wednesdays double edition!

Could be an opportunity to introduce some fresh meat into the house. By my reckoning, if the evictions go at the standard one per week until the final week, that leaves them with just two in the house at the start of the final week. They usually have five, so by my reckoning, they are likely to have at least three new additions at some time between now and then. Therefore the double edition could be to introduce one or two newcomers.

Another possibility being talked about is a swap of a Housemate with the Aussie BB show and the double edition could be used to show how the Housemate is chosen and their reaction when the news is broken to them. Of course, the alternative is that Endemol use it as a money making public vote to decide which of them takes the trip to Ozland.

There have also been rumours of a second house being opened up and that the happy little band will be split into two groups and forced to live apart for a while. Obviously the decision making process as to who goes into which group will provide for some entertaining tv and therefore justify Wednesday's double edition.

I guess it could even be a combination of the above possibilities. I.E. New Housemate or Housemates and one of the existing Housemates going down under. Or alternatively, three or four of them could be sent into a second house where they will find another one or two new Housemates there to greet them. This would give Endemol the added bonus of a double reaction. First from the HM's entering the second house and then a week or two later when the rest of the HM's realise that their number has grown.

As far as the Any Other price is concerned, I really don't know what to answer to that one. As far as I am concerned, the Any Other price is way too high already. Does anyone seriously think that this option which includes Aileyne, Susie the Kit Kat winner and probably another three Any Other Hm's should be twice the price of Glyn? The penny will drop on the Any Other price at some stage, imo. I see it as the only real alternative to a Pete victory and, as such, I believe it will fall below 5/1 at some stage.

spot on budgie.....

well its an opinion

I noticed a while ago that nowhere becomes now here which adds wait to your two house theory

the idea of the a/o price going down to 5-1 at some point is reasonable imo though would you suggest that at that price its a sell - on what Ive seen so far and petes strength overall Im not sure I would buy at that price - but I guess 10.s is a decent price with so much to come in the a/o dept

Hi budgiebird...you have found the golden egg :D

.

Thanks 36.. much appreciated.

fte... As to whether Any Other would be a sell at 5/1 would depend upon your position on Pete I guess. Personally, these are the only two I am interested in having onside. At the moment, because I feel AO is overpriced, I am investing more in that option with a view to trading part of my potential profit at a much lower price, as and when that occurs. When that happens, the plan is to plough any trading profit into Pete.

Thanks budgiebird and ft-e.See you over on the rich side of the house.:lol:

I seem to remember you from last year budgiebird,weren't you a Science fan ?

Welcome on board Budgie and FT-E. I haven't done much punting on BB this year, but from previous series I know that you 2 guys were among the most respectable Specials posters on Betfair - exactly the kind of members this place should have.

Thanks budgiebird and ft-e.See you over on the rich side of the house.:lol:

I seem to remember you from last year budgiebird,weren't you a Science fan ?

Yes I was, but please don't hold that against me.

Evicted by 0.5 bloody per cent. GRRRRRRRRRR!!!!:x

Thanks Joe, appreciate your kind words.:{oops}:

Glad to be here, impressed with what I've seen. Give me quality over quantity any day.

There are two huge (as Anthony put it) ex-Science fans on here,myself and Cormack on Gold.
We chatted quite a bit on Specials last year.I was not the_mgt.:lol:

My critics say that Science didn't come anywhere near winning and that he finished 7th or 8th. However, I maintain that if he had been able to survive until the final week, he would have walked it.

Such is the critical difference between positive and negative voting.

It also shows the power of regional voting.How else does one explain Orlaith's double ?
This is a factor working for Glyn this year if he ever needs it.

I am of the opinion that support for Orlaith had very little to do with it. Science had had extremely bad edits all that week, being made to look bad by the Dark Destroyer and by some pretty biased editting by Endemol.

When it looks like being a predictable one sided eviciton , the Producers often try and make it closer via the editting to make more cash from the voters. When it was first announced that Science was up for eviction he was something like 8/1 to go. 3 bad edits later and he was odds on.

I don't believe Endemol wanted to lose him, they were just trying to make it closer and over-cooked it. By the time they realised their mistake and gave him a great edit on the friday night, it was too late, the die was already cast and though he appeared to come back strongly while the friday edit was being shown, he just ran out of time. Another ten minutes voting and he might well have survived.

In the end it was all about Science detractors -vs- Science fans. His popularity rating touched 40% on the day he was evicted, easilt the most popular HM in there. However, his negativity rating was even higher- around 42% I believe. He was a strong character who produced strong feelings either way. I believe most people were voting for Science or against Science and not many people were actually considering Orlaith's merits or otherwise. He could have been up against a plank of wood and he would still have been evicted... oh wait, he WAS up against a.....:lol:

That doesn't explain how Orlaith defeated the lovely Kemal.:evil:

That doesn't explain how Orlaith defeated the lovely Kemal.:evil:

It does.... same thing on a smaller scale. Kemal had a reasonably high popularity rating in comparison to Orlaith, but his negativity rating was even higher. It's only my opinion and I may of course be wrong, but Orlaith was such a bland character that any eviction she was going to be in was always going to be decided by the popularity -vs the negativity rating of her opponent. In the event of those two factors being equal, the negativity factor wins, because it's a negative vote and people are slightly more inclined, even in a head to head, to vote someone out rather than vote to save someone, it's the nature of the eviction night beast, the crowd and the viewers at home want someone to boo and jeer at.

Morning guys

Thanks for the welcome and kind words Smokin.

Question: Is Nikki this year's Science?

You either love her or hate her, selfish in the extreme and desperate for fame!

Morning guys

Thanks for he welcomeand kind words Smokin.

Question: Is Nikki this year's Science?

You either love her or hate her, selfish in the extreme and desperate for fame!

Careful ft-e, you are amongst some Science fanatics here!

There was far more depth to Science than there is to Nikki. He was far more intelligent for a start. He was made to LOOK selfish on a couple of occasions, but he also showed signs of generosity and as for being desperate for fame.. aren't they all?

But I agree.. she polarises opinion, on a far lower scale than Science though.

Hello to Budgie, an excellent poster and hello to all the other folks on here.

As Budgie will affirm, I am not given to short postings, but hey, if you get bored reading my very long posts, you can always revisit the discredited Betfair forum for pithy nonsense.

I do not know if its the done thing on here to specify areas of interest/expertise but in any case my own preference is reality shows, horses (laying), poker and a little football. I am not really a gambler, preferring to arb/trade or generally cover my ass.

I hope some people will find my posts interesting/amusing and that I can rely on no one attacking me on here for anything I may write that you disagree with.

[QUOTE=budgiebird]Careful ft-e, you are amongst some Science fanatics here!QUOTE]

tweedledum



tweedledee



tweedletwat

Welcome Maloo, good to see you here.

I'm sure that your intelligent and in depth posts will be greatly appreciated here.

People will no doubt disagree with some of your views, but I have found that any disagreement is usually intelligent and constructive disagreement which leads to further discussion and a healthy exchange of views.

One tip I would give, from experience during my short time here, is to leave your baggage at the door.

[QUOTE=budgiebird]Careful ft-e, you are amongst some Science fanatics here!QUOTE]

tweedledum



tweedledee



tweedletwat

Ahhh... the funniest quote from BB6.

Oh how I miss the Great Man!:cry:

That was classic and perhaps the sign of an emerging 'Great Man' but the rough edges were somewhat sociopathic. For me his temper was not in control and his ego and id were in total conflict, with a weak super ego. In twenty years time maybe imo. It's a subject, budgie, we will never agree on. :(