feedingthe-ego

I'm a new member - afraid Im finding the bf forum for bb a sad place - I take punting on bb seriously as it involves my knowledge of people's characters - my profession - with my knowledge of punting

I'm keen to exchange thoughts for info - my thoughts will of course be my opinion tho my partner is also a professional counsellor and between us we make our knowledge pay whilst enjoying the sparring that goes on in the house

Im not involved in the media these days so have little access to the spoiler which I believe is useful in making decisions when trading - also I believe its always useful to get other opinions on inter-action in the house and to catch up on any events I might have missed

It seems this section is devoid of other threads so Im wondering whther this site is interested in BB

I welcome responses and comments

thegreat

Welcome

plenty of BB discussion up in gold.

I am sure if you make a contribution you will get replies especially from the_mgt

__________________
___________


I'm a working man from Lancashire

And I want a Chippy Tea !!!!

feedingthe-ego

thanks for that The Great

I'm not inclined to sit here and talk to myself as I have other commitments etc

I'm more than happy to discuss my qualifications etc and/or have a trial period in gold or silver.

To be honest - and I know this sounds a bit pompous - but Ive been 'in the betting business (in one form or another) for decades and basically now live in a semi-retired capacity on the back of it.

I dont bet profesionally these days but show a decent profit for the time I put in. Also I dont bet for the sake of winning money but as a way to continue to prove to myself that I still have 'got what it takes.' I play for pleasure and its nice to share thoughts and views with other sensible serious players

I reckon I would make a worthy contribution so I hope to hear from someone with some sort of suggestion for me as a way forward.

many thanks

drayton

Simply bang a few decents posts out you'll be gold before you know it.
The system here is designed to keep the fools out. Some members have been promoted to gold after less than 10 posts.

btw the great is right,there's an excellant BB section in gold.

__________________
My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic

feedingthe-ego

Thanks Drayton

As I said I'm not inclined to talk to myself but I will put one or two thoughts down over the next few days if something relatively fresh comes to mind.

To write as if I'm talking to myself isnt really my cup of tea - if anyone would like my opinion on matters relating to the hmates and their prospects this would give me something with which to work.

ft-e

drayton

Look forward to reading your posts.
welcome btw.

__________________
My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic

the_mgt

Do you have an opinion on the 5th eviction ?Will it be a conventional nomination or will there be a different method ?
Do you post on BF ?If so,what is your username,ft-e ?

feedingthe-ego

Hi mtg

I am feedingthego on betfair beforethat I was Hickstead


As far as the fifth eviction is concerned I would be a layer of anyone at below 1.5 for the next day or so for small money on the basis that some hmates are not going to be allowed to vote and that there is something special going to happen on Wednesday anyway with the two shows.

If someone gave me a free fiver bet on the 5th evictee I would punt it on Lisa.

She has borderline qualities and the whole group, to some degree or other, find it difficult to contain her. She is a lose cannon in the house and hasnt really made any genuine friendships.

That said - the edits could be kind to her and if you dont live in the house you kind see her in a kind of 'she's harmless and means well sort of way.'

If she is nommed she is my favourite to go - i also think its no morethan 50/50 that it will be a two way nom.

Hope this helps

So far this series I have only been playing in the outright market and my thoughts tend to focus there.

feedingthe-ego

Pardon me mgt not as printed - apologies

the_mgt

Hallo,Hickstead. I have been following this market and either everyone has it all wrong or they are playing on the premise that everyone is going to be allowed to nominate with a special different punishment being meted out towards those who have discussed nominations.
How else can you explain that Lea is twice the price of Richard ?

Given the scenarion where all those who have discussed noms are up for eviction,Richard and Lea both figure as well as Lisa,Imogen and Glyn.Lea and Richard should be similar prices.
Given the case that only those who have not discussed nominations are allowed to vote, this would appear to favour Richard, as four of the criminals would have voted for him.
Given the one where there is a normal eviction process,Richard is automatically up whereas Lea is safe.
In the end, all three point to Lisa anyway. I see few outs for her whatever happens.

Smokin Joe

Who all were talking about nominations this weekend?

feedingthe-ego

I dont follow events every day and am not by a computer on monday afternoon/early evening when the noms become known. The eviction markets are volatile and have thin liquidity at times so I've chosen not to play on them yet.

Nonetheless I have my views on them and, for me, they give firm guidance as to who is supporting who etc. so helps with outright trading.

To my mind Lisa has little support and Richard is despised by one or two hmates but has a couple of colluders, Leah fits in with the Richard profile in this too.

Who actually gets nommed imo is really down to who endemol choose. Those that have been told. 'BB will get back to you' are unlikley to be allowed to vote or imo may be up for eviction - the latter a distinct possibility.

As wild conjecture it wouldnt shock me if a couple went (despite the already depleted numbers) and more new guys came in. Though this may not effect the 5th eviction betting as such. This is the longest show to date and precedents can be set to maintain and sustain interest.

I think on a relatively level playing field re noms, leah is fairly safe as she has a couple of buddies now and even if she is nommed she would may not go though she is 'at risk'.

Richard is one of the hmates who I find 'detestable' - based on my sensitivity to manipulative, controlling people. The voting public may not entirely agree with me on that yet, so against Leah and Lisa he may well be safe (ish).

My advice on eviction betting is to lay odds on before the noms are made and then either trade out or monitor carefully by laying odds on (the shorter the better of course) to one's particular book. It's sometimes possible to lay three or four odds on by the time the market has completely settled.

As the show develops and the more fancied runners come into contention it will be easier to do the above imo. But it is crucial to be in a decent position by monday afternoon, and by a computer, to cover the 'inside' moves or percieved 'inside' moves.

I reckon many who read this will already have similar views especially regarding laying more than one runner odds on - it aint rocket science, I know.

feedingthe-ego

At current odds: lisa 1.57 Richard 7.6 and leah 13

id lay lisa for 10% of my bank (on this event) and have 10% on leah - I reckon I could trade out of leah at those odds before noon tomorrow

I would then look to lay whoever else was nommed to balance my book with lisa

the_mgt

Changing the subject slightly,ft-e. Pete's current price is 1.77-1.80.Is this a back,a lay or a no play ?
Any Other is 9.8-10.0......I see this as a back with a view to trading out at a lower price after Wednesday.On Friday night , when Grace drenched Suzie I layed 8.2.
Glyn and Nikki look to be the two other possibles.Nikki's price is currently shortening and Glyn's is lengthening.Will these fluctuate so you can trade them, or are these trends set to continue over the week ?

feedingthe-ego

If one or two of the hmates were honest enough to ask pete to not play the drums too often then he imo would stop and apologise

If they dont - and he continues doing it most mornings - then he is in danger of being nommed sooner rather than later

ironic?

honesty would see a reasonable outcome, fear and duplicity an unreasonable outcome - on a human level

for betting purposes makes 1.76 terribly short -

what will the hmates do?

you decide

feedingthe-ego

mgt

I dumped my green on glyn at 5.2 and 5.4, I am marginally green now and think he is more likley to drift then shorten this week -

nikki - a favourite of mind (as a people watcher) she imo is as mad as a hatter but nonetheless socially acceptable in the society in which we live!! Even more so with viewers and voters of bb

Watch how she eats her food - she snatches it off her spoon - to do with the way she has to deal with her past anerexic problems imo She doesnt enjoy eating (this is just a side issue)

her more public displays of her 'character' is to act out - this can be endearing if you dont have to live with her - she knows this too

Nikki sub 10's very likely imo

any other - got to be green on this because so much can happen but terribly volatile - no play if decent green, back at 10's but have finger on button on wednesday - suzie cant win imo, aishlyne is a contender but that is reflected in the current odds

bambam

I don't think any of the housemates will want to nominate Pete at the moment they know he''s a "Big Housemate" and nominating him will only damage their own image.

feedingthe-ego

Yes - its not likely to happen in days but more in weeks

But with fresh blood entering soon, and suzie and ashlyne finding their feet, and pete being odds-on, and me being green on him.....

...I wish someone would ask him to play less, rather than him thinking its harmless and them all beginning to find a reason to moan about him..

I'm sure he would apologise and play less or quietly.

These 'armchair rides' aren't as easy as they look imho!!

blink

Hi feedingthe-ego, and welcome.

Incidentally, the_mgt or anybody else responsible, is there any particular reason why the main Big Brother Threads are confined to the Gold Section? Apologies if so, but they do seem to be mainly general discussion and I know how easy it is to just post things there through force of habit.

I know of a couple of would-be refugees from the shambles that is Betfair Specials Forum who would be really keen to discuss BB with like-minded souls, but until this thread started there wasn't anything for them to even look at.

Apart from anything else, it's a shame that such good quality posts have such a limited audience. ("Lick-Lick" )

feedingthe-ego

Hi Blink

Thanks for your support

I understand that Ihave to prove my mettle which is fair enough and I hope that in a few days or so I will know my fate

I have had a good gesture of goodwill fromthe forum so am hopeful and patient

look forward to talking in the gold section soon, as does the other 'refugee'

thanks

oh and yes - this does feel a bit like nobby nomate's land